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AS1.33 | Atmospheric Blocking: Advancements in theory, modeling and impacts
EDI
Atmospheric Blocking: Advancements in theory, modeling and impacts
Convener: Prasad ShelkeECSECS | Co-conveners: James Renwick, Tim Woollings, Seraphine HauserECSECS
Atmospheric blocking, often characterised as “persistent anticyclones”, hinders the movement of weather systems in the mid-latitudes, as it blocks the flow of the westerlies. It is an important precursor of several extreme weather events such as heat waves, cold air outbreaks, flash floods, and prolonged drought conditions. Despite the term being coined for the first time in 1904, and studied over the century since, there is still a lack of explanation of the full life cycle of blocking events. Theoretical constraints limit our ability to accurately predict blocking events across scales and lower our confidence in future climate change projections. At the same time, we need to discuss how the increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events interacts with changing blocking frequency. Hence there are many topics, both in terms of meteorology and climate science, that we need to understand better.
We invite studies focusing on:
1. Model representation of atmospheric blocking events in the past, present and future climates
2. High-impact extreme weather events linking ‘Blocking’ or ‘Persistent circulation patterns’ as a precursor
3. Novel blocking detection methods
4. Theoretical advancements in understanding atmospheric blocking events
5. Relationship of blocking to different modes of climate variability
6. Impact assessment of atmospheric blocking-induced extreme weather events
7. Updated climatology and trends of blocking events in different regions across both hemispheres, using model and observations
8. Unconventional blocking regimes or blocking-like patterns and their impact in ‘High-’ and ‘Low-Latitude’
9. Monitoring and forecasting blocking events using Numerical Weather Prediction models
10. Statistical or machine learning models improving blocking forecasts