Earth resilience is the capacity of the intertwined human-Earth system to resist, recover, and regenerate back to a Holocene-like and habitable functioning in response to human pressures. A deeper understanding of Earth system resilience is key to charting safe operating spaces for prosperous and equitable future human development. Recent assessments of Earth system integrity highlight the deteriorating resilience of our planet, with planetary-scale human pressures (such as greenhouse gas emissions and land-use change) pushing the Earth system into the uncharted territory of the Anthropocene. Of particular concern are risks of triggering nonlinear changes in large-scale components of the Earth that can undergo abrupt, often irreversible state shifts once critical thresholds are crossed. Examples include the Greenland ice sheets, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and major ecosystems such as the Amazon rainforest. Their interactions may trigger tipping cascades, where the destabilization of one element increases the risk of others tipping, thereby amplifying Earth system change and undermining long-term Earth resilience.
The Earth system’s future trajectory is now co-shaped by human–Earth system feedbacks, where human activities both drive and respond to biophysical change. Fossil fuel use, deforestation, and land-use intensification contribute to destabilizing Earth system dynamics, while societal responses - such as mitigation policies, technological innovation, or behavioral shifts - can either reinforce unsustainable trajectories or create stabilizing feedbacks. In this context, research is uncovering the potential for social tipping dynamics, which could accelerate decarbonization and foster transformative pathways towards global sustainability to revitalize and regenerate Earth resilience.
We invite contributions on all topics relating to Earth resilience, planetary boundaries, safe operating spaces, tipping points in the Earth system, positive (social) tipping, as well as their interactions and potential domino effects. We welcome studies that use Earth system modelling, integrated human-Earth system models, from conceptual approaches to data-driven analysis to investigate nonlinear dynamics, abrupt shifts, and tipping points, as well as contributions exploring social transformation processes and their role in shaping a more sustainable future for people and the planet.
CL3.2
Earth resilience in the Anthropocene: from tipping points to safe operating spaces and human-Earth system interactions
Co-organized by GS10/GS6
Convener:
Jonathan Donges
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Co-conveners:
Eric Galbraith,
Lan Wang-Erlandsson,
Nico WunderlingECSECS