CL – Climate: Past, Present & Future
Programme Group Chair: Kerstin Treydte
- CL0 – Inter- and Transdisciplinary Sessions
- CL1.1 – Past Climate - Deep Time
- CL1.2 – Past Climate - Last ~2.6 Ma
- CL2 – Present Climate – Historical and Direct Observations
- CL3.1 – Future Climate – Climate Change: From Regional to Global
- CL3.2 – Future Climate – Climate and Society
- CL4 – Climate Studies Across Timescales
- CL5 – Tools for Climate Studies
- CL6 – Short Courses
Micropaleontological data provide unique insights into the dynamics and tipping points of past environments and climates through changes in the fossil record, including assemblage composition, morphology, and evolutionary patterns. Micropaleontology lies at the heart of biostratigraphy and provides a fundamental tool for reconstructing and stratigraphically constraining past changes in the Earth system. Our session aims to bring together a broad spectrum of micropaleontologists to showcase recent advances in the application of micropaleontological data to paleoenvironmental, paleoclimatological, and stratigraphic research in both marine and terrestrial settings.
We invite contributions from the field of micropaleontology that focus on the development and application of microfossils (including, but not limited to, coccolithophores, diatoms, dinoflagellates, foraminifera, ostracods, radiolarians, conodonts, and pollen) as proxies for paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatological reconstructions and tools for stratigraphic correlation. We particularly encourage submissions of multi-proxy approaches that merge micropaleontological, geochemical, and paleobiological information. The application of microfossils as stratigraphic markers and the advancement of multivariate statistical techniques with a focus on microfossil assemblages are encouraged.
This session aims to bring together multidisciplinary perspectives on the interplay between microbial activity, sedimentary processes, and geochemical signatures in lacustrine and marine environments, both modern and ancient. We seek contributions that explore how microbial metabolisms influence mineral formation (e.g., carbonates, clays, sulphates) how isotopic and molecular biosignatures record biogeochemical processes, and how sedimentary archives can be interpreted to reconstruct past environmental and climatic conditions.
We particularly encourage submissions that combine natural systems with experimental analogues, including laboratory simulations of mineral precipitation, microbe–mineral interactions, and environmental gradients. Studies integrating field observations, experimental data, and cutting-edge analytical or computational approaches (e.g., spectroscopy, synchrotron techniques, geochemistry, stable isotopes, machine learning) are especially welcome.
Topics of interest include, but are not limited to:
• Microbially mediated mineral precipitation in lacustrine and marine systems
• Early diagenesis and biosignature formation: field, lab, and model approaches
• Stable isotope systems as proxies for microbial and environmental processes
• Experimental analogues simulating early Earth, Mars-like, or extreme environments
• Sedimentary and geochemical archives for paleoclimate and paleoenvironmental reconstructions
• Integration of microbial ecology, mineralogy, and geochemistry to assess biogeochemical feedbacks
• Applications to the search for early life and biosignatures in the geological record and planetary contexts
This session invites contributions advancing the understanding, modelling, and prediction of extreme events in weather, climate, and other geophysical systems. It brings together researchers from the geophysical sciences and those applying mathematical, statistical, and dynamical-systems approaches.
Topics of interest include, but are not limited to:
* Variability and projected changes in extremes under climate change
* Representation of extreme events in weather and climate models
* Attribution of extreme events
* Emergent constraints on extreme-event behaviour
* Predictability of extremes across meteorological and climate timescales
* Connections between extremes in dynamical systems and observed geophysical extremes
* Theoretical and applied studies of extremes in nonlinear and chaotic systems
* Downscaling methods for extreme events
* Links between the physical dynamics of extremes and their impacts on society and ecosystems
We particularly welcome interdisciplinary contributions, novel methodologies, and studies connecting theory with observed geophysical extremes. Submissions from early-career researchers are especially encouraged.
The Earth system is a complex, multiphysics system with nonlinear interactions on multiple spatial and temporal scales. Understanding constituent processes (linear, nonlinear, stochastic, etc.) on the one hand, and the complexity of individual subsystems or the full integrated system on the other, is key to being able to better model the Earth System in a predictive fashion. The renaissance of machine and deep-learning in the past decade has led to rapid progress in the development of advanced approaches in, e.g., nonlinear time series analysis, dynamical and stochastic systems theory, critical slowing down theory, complex systems theory, and these approaches, in turn show promise in facilitating further advances in modeling the Earth system.
In this context, this session seeks contributions on all aspects of complexity, nonlinearity, tipping points and stochastic dynamics of the Earth system, including the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the cryosphere, the solid earth, etc. Communications on theoretical, experimental and modeling studies are all welcome, where the latter modeling studies can span the range of model hierarchy from idealized models to complex Earth System Models (ESM). Studies based on emerging approaches such as data driven models, Artificial Intelligence approaches, complex network methods, critical slowing down analysis, dynamical and stochastic systems theory, etc., are particularly encouraged.
Sitting under a tree, you feel the spark of an idea, and suddenly everything falls into place. The following days and tests confirm: you have made a magnificent discovery — so the classical story of scientific genius goes…
But science as a human activity is error-prone, and might be more adequately described as "trial and error". Handling mistakes and setbacks is therefore a key skill of scientists. Yet, we publish only those parts of our research that did work. That is also because a study may have better chances to be accepted for scientific publication if it confirms an accepted theory or reaches a positive result (publication bias). Conversely, the cases that fail in their test of a new method or idea often end up in a drawer (which is why publication bias is also sometimes called the "file drawer effect"). This is potentially a waste of time and resources within our community, as other scientists may set about testing the same idea or model setup without being aware of previous failed attempts.
Thus, we want to turn the story around, and ask you to share 1) those ideas that seemed magnificent but turned out not to be, and 2) the errors, bugs, and mistakes in your work that made the scientific road bumpy. In the spirit of open science and in an interdisciplinary setting, we want to bring the BUGS out of the drawers and into the spotlight. What ideas were torn down or did not work, and what concepts survived in the ashes or were robust despite errors?
We explicitly solicit Blunders, Unexpected Glitches, and Surprises (BUGS) from modeling and field or lab experiments and from all disciplines of the Geosciences.
In a friendly atmosphere, we will learn from each other’s mistakes, understand the impact of errors and abandoned paths on our work, give each other ideas for shared problems, and generate new insights for our science or scientific practice.
Here are some ideas for contributions that we would love to see:
- Ideas that sounded good at first, but turned out to not work.
- Results that presented themselves as great in the first place but turned out to be caused by a bug or measurement error.
- Errors and slip-ups that resulted in insights.
- Failed experiments and negative results.
- Obstacles and dead ends you found and would like to warn others about.
For inspiration, see the collection of BUGS - ranging from clay bricks to atmospheric temperature extremes - at https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/session/52496
Nonlinear waves transfer energy, momentum, and information across scales in the atmosphere and ocean. Rossby waves, atmospheric gravity waves, and ocean surface and internal waves interact with mean flows, turbulence, and other waves, influencing circulation, atmospheric blocking, teleconnections, ocean mixing, predictability, and extreme events. Their multiscale behaviour, nonlinear interactions, and limited observability remain challenging for conventional analysis and modelling.
This session invites contributions exploring how artificial intelligence, machine learning, and data-driven methods can improve the understanding, representation, and prediction of atmospheric and oceanic waves.
We welcome studies on Rossby-wave propagation and breaking, wave packets, wave–mean-flow interactions, blocking, teleconnections, circulation regimes, extremes, and predictability. Contributions addressing atmospheric gravity waves, ocean surface and internal waves, planetary and topographic waves, and wave–wave interactions are also encouraged.
Relevant approaches may include deep learning, neural operators, physics-informed AI, computer vision, explainable AI, reduced-order modelling, causal discovery, hybrid modelling, and machine-learning parameterizations. Applications may address wave detection, reconstruction from sparse observations, simulation acceleration, unresolved processes, prediction of wave evolution, and forecasting of wave-related extremes.
We also welcome assessments of the physical consistency, interpretability, uncertainty, and generalizability of AI models under changing climatic conditions.
Potential topics include:
* AI-based detection and tracking of waves and wave packets
* Rossby-wave breaking, blocking, and circulation regimes
* Wave–mean-flow and wave–wave interactions
* Gravity-wave detection and parameterization
* Data-driven modelling of ocean waves
* Neural operators and reduced-order models
* Physics-informed and physics-constrained AI
* AI-based simulation and prediction of wave evolution
* Waves, teleconnections, and climate variability
* Wave-related extreme and compound events
* Explainability and uncertainty quantification
* Comparisons of AI, numerical, and theoretical models
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a crucial role in shaping the dynamics of the Earth’s climate by distributing heat and nutrients across the Atlantic. It is important to understand the past, present and future changes in the dynamics of the AMOC, either gradual or abrupt, since such changes, and the possibility of its tipping, can have profound climatic and societal impacts. In this regard, big data and AI play an increasingly important role in studying AMOC dynamics based on diverse types of data. These range from geological proxies over contemporary in-situ and remote sensing observations to simulations of state-of-the-art ocean or coupled Earth system models and provide an ever increasing amount of more and more complex data on the AMOC. Advanced numerical methods and AI can help us to uncover critical aspects of the AMOC dynamics by extracting new patterns and highlighting the role of complex physical mechanisms and feedbacks, including early warnings of future regime shifts of the AMOC or some of its subcomponents like the Nordic Seas deep convection or the Northern hemisphere subpolar gyre.
In this session we welcome contributions exploring new ways of using big data and AI to elucidate AMOC dynamics. We aim to cover a broad variety of computational methods, making use of the wealth of AMOC-related observational and/or model data. These can range from statistical methods exploiting big datasets to machine learning and deep learning approaches, including neural-network emulators of the AMOC. The session is open to work on a wide range of timescales, from paleoclimate reconstruction, through current observations to future projections. Contributions may address the analysis of short-term AMOC dynamics, as well as longer-term behaviour, including tipping of the circulation and associated forecast and impact studies.
The statistical characterization and modelling of precipitation are crucial in a variety of applications, such as flood forecasting, water resource assessments, evaluation of climate change impacts, infrastructure design, and hydrological modelling. This session aims to gather contributions on research, advanced applications, and future needs in the understanding and modelling of precipitation, including its variability at different scales and its sources of uncertainty.
Contributions focusing on one or more of the following issues are particularly welcome:
- Process conceptualization and approaches to modelling precipitation at different spatial and temporal scales, including model parameter identification, calibration and regionalisation, and sensitivity analyses to parameterization and scales of process representation.
- Novel studies aimed at the assessment and representation of different sources of uncertainty of precipitation, including natural climate variability and changes caused by global warming.
- Uncertainty and variability in spatially and temporally heterogeneous multi-source ground-based, remotely sensed, and model-derived precipitation products.
- Estimation of precipitation variability and uncertainty at ungauged sites.
- Modelling, forecasting and nowcasting approaches based on ensemble simulations for synthetic representation of precipitation variability and uncertainty.
- Machine-learning approaches for precipitation modelling, forecasting, and downscaling: Machine-learning and hybrid (physics-informed) methods for precipitation simulation, uncertainty quantification, bias correction, and spatio-temporal downscaling, including baseline comparisons, cross-climate transfer tests, and evaluations of explainability and robustness.
- Scaling and scale invariance properties of precipitation fields in space and/or in time.
- Dynamical and statistical downscaling approaches to generate precipitation at fine spatial and temporal scales from coarse-scale information from meteorological and climate models.
CL0 – Inter- and Transdisciplinary Sessions
Sub-Programme Group Scientific Officer: Kerstin Treydte
Proposals are marked in red.
ESSI1 | Next-Generation Analytics for Scientific Discovery: Data Science, Machine Learning, AI
Climate change is reshaping infectious-disease risks. Hydroclimatic extremes such as floods, droughts, and heatwaves can alter vector habitats, pathogen survival, water quality, sanitation, human mobility and patterns of human contact. Adaptation measures (including vector control, water management, healthcare preparedness, vaccination and behavioural responses) can reduce these risks or unintentionally create new pathways of transmission.
The session welcomes contributions on vector-borne, waterborne, foodborne, respiratory and zoonotic diseases, including research on compound hazards, unequal impacts and adaptation responses. We particularly invite diverse methodological approaches, including:
Dynamical systems approaches to modelling and understanding infectious diseases
Large-scale statistical, epidemiological and climate–health analyses;
Process-based and data-driven models;
Local, urban and neighbourhood-scale modelling;
Qualitative, participatory and mixed-methods approaches;
Surveys, behavioural studies and assessments of public perceptions;
Surveillance, early-warning and climate-informed forecasting systems;
Evaluations of adaptation, preparedness, resilience and risk-management strategies.
Veterinary medicine
The session aims to bring together researchers working across geosciences, climate science, epidemiology, microbiology, ecology, public health and disaster-risk reduction. By connecting these perspectives, we hope to improve understanding of when and where natural hazards become infectious-disease threats, and how these risks can be anticipated and managed.
Machine learning is reshaping the representation of complex physical processes in Earth system models, offering new avenues for parameterisation, emulation, and hybrid modelling. This session focuses on the use of machine learning to emulate computationally expensive or unresolved processes, accelerate physical simulations, enable data-driven discoveries, and improve representation across domains such as convection, turbulence, radiation, hydrology, sea ice, and other Earth system components. Topics include (but are not limited to):
- Subgrid-scale parameterisations via machine learning
- Emulators of physical processes, model components, or whole weather and climate models (including end-to-end learning and foundation models)
- Data-driven discoveries
- Hybrid ML-physics modelling frameworks
- Physics-informed neural networks, neural operators, and differentiable programming
- Reinforcement learning and other approaches for ensuring physical consistency, stability, and optimising model behaviour
- Calibration and parameter optimisation using ML
- Physical behaviour, encoding and analysis of ML models
- Verification and explainability (XAI) of data-driven models (including AI forecasting)
- Representation of extremes and downscaling
- Coupling of ML models with physical models
- Cross-domain applications (atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, land)
- Impacts of architecture choices and design on physical behaviour
- Links between ML methods and fundamental physics or applied mathematics
- Novel AI methods and applications
CL1.1 – Past Climate - Deep Time
Sub-Programme Group Scientific Officers: Jan-Berend Stuut, Elisabeth Dietze
The geological record provides insight into how climate and carbon cycle processes operate and evolve under different than modern boundary conditions and forcings. Understanding past climate evolution is paramount to progressing on understanding fundamental questions of Earth System feedbacks and sensitivity to perturbations, such as the behaviour of the climate system and carbon cycle under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration—relative to the Quaternary—, or the existence of environmental tipping points and thresholds. In recent years, geochemical techniques and Earth System Models complexity have been greatly improved and several international projects on past climates (e.g., DeepMIP, MioMIP, PlioMIP) have been initiated within the wider PMIP, helping to bridge the gap between palaeoclimate modelling and data communities. This session invites work on past climates and carbon cycling across the Phanerozoic using model simulations and/or proxy-based reconstructions. We especially encourage submissions featuring reconstructions of palaeoenvironments or processes, palaeoclimate-ocean and carbon cycle modelling, and the integration of CO2 and (hydro)climate proxies with models of any complexity.
Dissolved oxygen in seawater is vital for marine life, diversity, and global biogeochemical cycles. Understanding how oxygen has changed through the geological record offers key insights to understand potential future scenarios. In the past, both the absolute abundance and distribution of ocean oxygenation was at times, different from today. Such changes are driven by different processes, including oxygen solubility, ocean circulation, and/or biological processes. In this session, we invite contributions investigating past seawater dissolved oxygen reconstructions on regional to global scales across the Phanerozoic. This includes studies of drivers and mechanisms of change, feedback, and impacts on ecosystems and the Earth system. Studies focussing on proxy applications or development, modelling, and proxy-model comparisons are welcome.
Accurate reconstructions of sea surface, bottom water, and continental surface temperatures during the Cenozoic era are essential for understanding climate dynamics in the geological past, particularly under warmer-than-present conditions. However, producing robust and precise paleotemperature estimates remains inherently challenging. Temperature proxies are subject to a range of geochemical, biological, environmental, and analytical uncertainties, which lead to discrepancies in both absolute and relative temperature estimates across different methods. These limitations hinder efforts to synthesize globally representative paleotemperature records and to constrain the rates and magnitudes of global temperature changes in response to both abrupt and long-term changes in atmospheric CO2.
Addressing these challenges requires new approaches, including improved proxy calibrations, and more comprehensive inter-proxy and proxy-model comparisons, to obtain a better understanding of the uncertainties associated with paleotemperature reconstructions. In this session, we welcome contributions that push the boundaries of Cenozoic paleotemperature research, including new multi-proxy and multi-site temperature reconstructions, new advances in proxy ground-truthing, applications, and calibrations, and novel modelling perspectives on paleotemperature changes. By bringing together the diverse community using proxy and modelling techniques, we seek to increase the robustness of Cenozoic ocean and terrestrial temperature reconstructions. Ultimately, this will improve our understanding of Earth’s climate system and its behaviour during warmer-than-present states.
Earth's climate has undergone pronounced changes across geological time, from greenhouse states to icehouse conditions and back, to name just a few of the changes. While orbital forcing and carbon-cycle feedbacks are well established as pacemakers of Quaternary glacial cycles, the slower geodynamic processes that set the baseline climate state and modulate it on million-year timescales remain actively debated. Plate tectonics governs the carbon cycle at its source through volcanic degassing, and at its sink, through the uplift of terrains that accelerate chemical weathering. Seafloor spreading rates and the lengths of mid-ocean ridges, continental configuration and position, and the opening and closing of ocean gateways reshape global ocean circulation and heat transport. Large igneous province eruptions have been implicated in mass extinctions and hyperthermal events, while orogenesis and continental rifting alter atmospheric circulation patterns and the long-term drawdown of CO2.
This session invites contributions that explore the connections between solid-Earth dynamics and climate across all timescales - from the multi-hundred-million-year supercontinent cycle to million-year and sub-million-year variability. We welcome observational, modeling, and data-driven studies, including plate kinematic reconstructions, mantle convection simulations, paleoclimate proxy analyses, geochemical models, and statistical or spectral approaches that quantify the co-evolution of tectonic and climatic records. We particularly encourage contributions that bridge disciplinary boundaries linking geodynamic forcing functions to their surface expression in the sedimentary, geochemical, and paleobiological records.
Skeletal remains, like shells, ossicles, corals, bones, or fish otoliths, are valuable archives of physical, chemical, or paleogenetic information, helping us understand ecological and environmental changes over periods ranging from decades to millennia, whether on land or in the ocean. This session invites researchers who employ these archives to reconstruct changes in species and ecosystems in relation to climate variability and/or human impacts across both the deep time and the recent past. We encourage contributions that focus on biotic interactions, species and community dynamics, sclerochronology, isotope geochemistry, trait-based analyses, morphometric approaches, and ancient DNA/sedimentary DNA, in particular conservation-oriented case studies that combine data from modern biota and fossil remains. Complementary paleoecological archives—such as biogeochemical and isotopic signatures from sedimentary succession or archaeological middens—are also welcome, primarily when they document histories of environmental disturbance and its ecological consequences. We also welcome paleobiogeographic reconstructions that explore range shifts, corridor/barrier dynamics, and distributional disequilibria to inform how species’ spatial patterns have responded to past environmental change. In conclusion, by examining long-term records, we can gain insights into the potential consequences of present-day environmental stressors and climate change, reconstruct past dynamics of species and ecosystem changes, including extinction, recovery, and biogeographic shifts, and thus obtain valuable insights that can help us sketch the near-future trajectories of contemporary ecosystems.
Micropaleontological data provide unique insights into the dynamics and tipping points of past environments and climates through changes in the fossil record, including assemblage composition, morphology, and evolutionary patterns. Micropaleontology lies at the heart of biostratigraphy and provides a fundamental tool for reconstructing and stratigraphically constraining past changes in the Earth system. Our session aims to bring together a broad spectrum of micropaleontologists to showcase recent advances in the application of micropaleontological data to paleoenvironmental, paleoclimatological, and stratigraphic research in both marine and terrestrial settings.
We invite contributions from the field of micropaleontology that focus on the development and application of microfossils (including, but not limited to, coccolithophores, diatoms, dinoflagellates, foraminifera, ostracods, radiolarians, conodonts, and pollen) as proxies for paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatological reconstructions and tools for stratigraphic correlation. We particularly encourage submissions of multi-proxy approaches that merge micropaleontological, geochemical, and paleobiological information. The application of microfossils as stratigraphic markers and the advancement of multivariate statistical techniques with a focus on microfossil assemblages are encouraged.
This session aims to bring together multidisciplinary perspectives on the interplay between microbial activity, sedimentary processes, and geochemical signatures in lacustrine and marine environments, both modern and ancient. We seek contributions that explore how microbial metabolisms influence mineral formation (e.g., carbonates, clays, sulphates) how isotopic and molecular biosignatures record biogeochemical processes, and how sedimentary archives can be interpreted to reconstruct past environmental and climatic conditions.
We particularly encourage submissions that combine natural systems with experimental analogues, including laboratory simulations of mineral precipitation, microbe–mineral interactions, and environmental gradients. Studies integrating field observations, experimental data, and cutting-edge analytical or computational approaches (e.g., spectroscopy, synchrotron techniques, geochemistry, stable isotopes, machine learning) are especially welcome.
Topics of interest include, but are not limited to:
• Microbially mediated mineral precipitation in lacustrine and marine systems
• Early diagenesis and biosignature formation: field, lab, and model approaches
• Stable isotope systems as proxies for microbial and environmental processes
• Experimental analogues simulating early Earth, Mars-like, or extreme environments
• Sedimentary and geochemical archives for paleoclimate and paleoenvironmental reconstructions
• Integration of microbial ecology, mineralogy, and geochemistry to assess biogeochemical feedbacks
• Applications to the search for early life and biosignatures in the geological record and planetary contexts
CL1.2 – Past Climate - Last ~2.6 Ma
Sub-Programme Group Scientific Officers: Jan-Berend Stuut, Carole Nehme
Past climate variability and extreme events cannot be understood from any single source of information. Climate-model simulations provide physically consistent representations of past climate states and the processes governing variability and extremes, but they cannot reproduce the unique sequence of events that actually occurred. Geological and biological proxies, historical documents, archaeological records and other event-based archives instead preserve evidence of the realised past, but with heterogeneous temporal resolution, spatial coverage, sensitivity, preservation and uncertainty. This session invites contributions that combine, compare or jointly interpret multiple sources of information to investigate past climate change, variability and extremes.
We particularly welcome studies integrating climate-model simulations with geological, palaeoenvironmental, documentary, historical or archaeological evidence; approaches addressing rare or high-impact events such as storms, floods, droughts and heat extremes; statistical or probabilistic methods designed to account explicitly for dating uncertainty, proxy sensitivity, observational thresholds, preservation biases and model uncertainty.
Of particular interest are approaches that move beyond simple model–data comparison towards a process-based understanding of what different sources can reveal about past climate states and events. Contributions exploring data assimilation, probabilistic inference, multi-proxy synthesis, event attribution, high-resolution palaeoclimate modelling, machine learning, or methods for identifying convergence and disagreement among heterogeneous evidence are encouraged.
The session aims to foster dialogue across traditionally separate communities and to explore how complementary information from models and archives can be combined to produce more physically grounded and uncertainty-aware reconstructions of past climate variability and extremes.
This session aims to place recently observed climate change in a long-term perspective by highlighting the importance of paleoclimate research spanning the past 2000 years. We invite presentations that provide insights into past climate variability, over decadal to millennial timescales, from different paleoclimate archives (ice cores, marine sediments, terrestrial records, historical archives and more). In particular, we are focussing on quantitative temperature and hydroclimate reconstructions, and reconstructions of large-scale modes of climate variability from local to global scales. This session also encourages presentations on the attribution of past climate variability to external drivers or internal climate processes, data syntheses, model-data comparison exercises, proxy system modelling, and novel approaches to producing multi-proxy climate field reconstructions such as data assimilation or machine learning.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), Earth's most critical climate heat distributor, may slow down sooner than previously expected. Although similar scenarios have occurred in the past, their expressions remain understudied.
The transition from the Last Glacial period into the Holocene was punctuated by a series of abrupt cooling events, linked to AMOC slowdown, such as the Younger Dryas, Heinrich-1, and the 8.2 ka event. These provide ground-truth evidence on the regional impacts on ecosystems and regional weather patterns. Understanding the mechanics, regional extent, and temporal progression of such events can inform us about how future AMOC-slowdown scenarios may play out.
We encourage contributions combining multi-proxy records (ice cores, lacustrine and marine sediments, and speleothems), regional syntheses, numerical modeling, and proxy–model comparisons, in particular, on the Younger Dryas period. We aim to integrate discussions of the interconnected mechanisms linking (hydro)climatic changes to disruptions in atmospheric and ocean circulation. Responses to the impacts of large-scale processes on regional (hydro)climatic and environmental expressions across regions, building a broader picture and highlighting spatio-temporal disparities. Thereby, exploring new avenues that go beyond the ‘classical’ AMOC weakening/strengthening conversation.
The Quaternary (2.56 Ma to present) is characterized by recurring glacial–interglacial cycles and major reorganizations of the climate system. Two particularly prominent transitions stand out: the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT, ~ 1.2–0.65 Ma), marked by a shift in dominant glacial cyclicity from ~ 41 kyr to ~ 100 kyr, and the Mid-Brunhes Transition (MBT, ~430 ka), associated with a shift toward generally stronger interglacials and changes in atmospheric CO₂, ice volume and ocean–atmosphere interactions.
Both transitions involved profound changes in the climate system, including reorganizations of atmospheric and oceanic circulation, ocean heat redistribution and carbon storage, as well as adjustments in global thermal and hydrological gradients. These were accompanied by significant changes in the cryosphere, including ice sheet extent and dynamics, and in both marine and terrestrial biospheres. However, despite decades of research, the relative roles of orbital forcing, internal feedbacks and changing climate system sensitivity remain debated.
This session aims to bring together new insights from marine and lacustrine sediment cores, ice cores, speleothems and numerical simulations in order to better characterize the paleoenvironmental conditions associated with these key transitions and to constrain the interactions among the different components of the climate system.
We welcome contributions based on geochemical, mineralogical, micropalaeontological, and modelling approaches, covering a broad range of timescales and regions. We particularly encourage contributions addressing orbital and millennial-scale variability as well as regional vs global climate signals. Those integrating multiple archives, proxies or modelling approaches are especially welcome.
The global ocean and climate variability is controlled by manifold and complex interactions between low and high latitudes, mediated via atmospheric and oceanic circulation. For instance, waxing and waning of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets modulate global monsoon systems and the ITCZ through their influence on the global overturning circulation. In turn, the low latitude oceans and atmospheric circulation are central to the global hydrological cycle and climate as they provide the heat and moisture distributed across latitudes and longitudes. Western boundary currents connect low and high latitudes as they control heat and salt export from the tropics towards the poles. The Southern Ocean is central to the global carbon cycle and thought to control glacial-interglacial changes in atmospheric CO2.
While the interplay between low and high latitudes is essential for major global climate changes on various time scales, documenting the teleconnections and transmission pathways involving “atmospheric bridges” and “ocean tunnels” remains a major challenge. Numerous issues remain unresolved: For instance, do the low latitudes lead or lag the high-latitude changes during terminations and millennial events? Do Northern or Southern Hemisphere high latitudes exert a more dominant influence on the tropics?
In this session, we welcome contributions on all aspects of climate linkages between low and high latitudes from around the globe spanning centennial to orbital time scales during the Quaternary. This includes proxy reconstructions from various archives (marine sediments, corals, speleothems, lake sediments and ice cores), as well as numerical models (including PMIP, freshwater housing experiments, transient simulations). By bringing together communities working across different latitudes, this session aims to reconcile proxy and model perspectives of inter- and intra-hemispheric coupling to foster an improved understanding of large-scale ocean and climate dynamics.
Tree rings are one of nature’s most versatile archives, providing insight into past environmental conditions at annual and intra-annual resolution and from local to global scales. Besides being valued proxies for historical climate, tree rings are also important indicators of plant physiological responses to changing environments and of long-term ecological processes. In this broad context we welcome contributions using one or more of the following approaches to either study the impact of environmental change on the growth and physiology of trees and forest ecosystems, or to assess and reconstruct past environmental change: (i) dendrochronological methods including studies based on tree-ring width, MXD or Blue Intensity, (ii) stable isotopes in tree rings and related plant compounds, (iii) dendrochemistry, (iv) quantitative wood anatomy, (v) ecophysiological data analyses, and (vi) mechanistic modeling, all across temporal and spatial scales.
Speleothems are key terrestrial archives of regional to global palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental changes on sub-seasonal to orbital timescales. They provide high temporally resolved records which can be accurately and precisely dated using U–Th or U–Pb techniques in combination with a variety of proxies such as stable O and C isotopes and trace element ratios. Recent efforts have seen the rise in more non-traditional proxies, such as fluid inclusion water isotopes, organic biomarkers, pollen, dead carbon fraction etc. This advancement towards quantitative reconstructions of past precipitation, temperature, or other environmental variables and climate patterns are key for data-model comparisons and further evaluations. Beyond this, caves and karst areas additionally host an enormous suite of valuable proxy archives such as cave ice, cryogenic carbonates, clastic sediments, tufa, or travertine sequences, which complement the terrestrial palaeorecord, and are often associated with important fossils, historical or archaeological findings.
This session aims to integrate recent developments in the field and invites abstract submissions from a broad range of cave- and karst-related studies from orbital to sub-seasonal timescales.
In particular, we welcome contributions from:
(1) (quantitative) reconstructions of past climatic and environmental variables to explore precipitation, vegetation, fire frequency, and temperature changes across different climate zones;
(2) field- and lab-based developments of process-based methods to improve the application of cave and karst-related proxy variables;
(3) developments in chronological methods and their applications;
(4) process and proxy-system model studies as well as integrated research on developing and using databases such as SISAL (Speleothem Isotope Synthesis and AnaLysis).
We further welcome advancements in related and/or interdisciplinary areas, which pave the way towards robust (quantitative) interpretations of proxy time series, improve the understanding of proxy-relevant processes, or enable regional-to-global and seasonal-to-orbital scale analyses of the relationships between proxies and environmental parameters. In addition, research contributing to current international co-ordinated activities, such as the PAGES working group on Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and AnaLysis (SISAL) and others are welcome.
This session invites contributions that advance a comprehensive understanding and quantification of climate shifts across multiple timescales, from local to global scales. Submissions may highlight new (multi-)proxy reconstructions from diverse archives, chronological improvements, emerging statistical approaches, and/or climate simulations that help identify, quantify, and interpret transient vs. abrupt climate changes across Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles.
The session welcomes participants beyond the INTIMATE network who contribute to its central aims: progress on relative or absolute chronological methods, the reduction of reconstruction uncertainties, multi-site integration towards common timescales (e.g., to the Greenland event stratigraphy), a dedicated use of model-data or multi-proxy comparisons to disentangle climate or ecosystem signals, and exploring teleconnections, i.e., linking impacts to different climate system components across time and space.
We particularly invite studies that improve our understanding of atmosphere–ocean linkages of extreme climate events (e.g., AMOC weakening), those that seek to separate signals of changing seasonality and/or temperature vs. hydroclimate and their implications on past societies, as well as ecosystems. Where applicable, we encourage contributions that reflect on the potential implications of past climate shifts for: (1) understanding future climate change; (2) assessing impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and societies; and (3) identifying links between extreme climate states on land and changes in ocean circulation, external forcing, internal climate variability, or volcanic activity.
The dispersal and evolution of hominins from North Africa to Eurasia coincided with large-scale climatic and environmental changes. Glacial-interglacial cycles, abrupt climate events, and long-term environmental variability across the Mediterranean and Western Asia shaped migration pathways, ecosystem dynamics, and human adaptation. This session aims to bring together researchers investigating the climate history of this interconnected region using paleoclimate and archaeological archives, such as cave sediments, open-air sites, and rock shelters. We welcome contributions spanning a wide range of timescales and reconstruction methods. Topics include, but are not limited to, high-resolution reconstructions of temperature, hydroclimate, vegetation, atmospheric circulation, and archaeological evidence using any archive, including dispersion- and climate models. We encourage studies that combine paleoenvironmental records with archaeological evidence to investigate the environmental context of hominin evolution, migration, and technological change in corridors of Eurasian expansion. By fostering dialogue between paleoclimatologists/modelers, and archaeologists, this session seeks to advance an integrated understanding of how climate variability influenced the Eurasian landscapes through which hominins dispersed and adapted.
Skeletal remains, like shells, ossicles, corals, bones, or fish otoliths, are valuable archives of physical, chemical, or paleogenetic information, helping us understand ecological and environmental changes over periods ranging from decades to millennia, whether on land or in the ocean. This session invites researchers who employ these archives to reconstruct changes in species and ecosystems in relation to climate variability and/or human impacts across both the deep time and the recent past. We encourage contributions that focus on biotic interactions, species and community dynamics, sclerochronology, isotope geochemistry, trait-based analyses, morphometric approaches, and ancient DNA/sedimentary DNA, in particular conservation-oriented case studies that combine data from modern biota and fossil remains. Complementary paleoecological archives—such as biogeochemical and isotopic signatures from sedimentary succession or archaeological middens—are also welcome, primarily when they document histories of environmental disturbance and its ecological consequences. We also welcome paleobiogeographic reconstructions that explore range shifts, corridor/barrier dynamics, and distributional disequilibria to inform how species’ spatial patterns have responded to past environmental change. In conclusion, by examining long-term records, we can gain insights into the potential consequences of present-day environmental stressors and climate change, reconstruct past dynamics of species and ecosystem changes, including extinction, recovery, and biogeographic shifts, and thus obtain valuable insights that can help us sketch the near-future trajectories of contemporary ecosystems.
CL2 – Present Climate – Historical and Direct Observations
Sub-Programme Group Scientific Officers: Martin Wild, Kerstin Treydte
Subsurface temperature, particularly groundwater temperature, is an emerging indicator of environmental change. Climate change and urban heat are altering subsurface temperature regimes, including their long-term trends, spatial patterns, and seasonality. Yet subsurface temperatures remain largely “out of sight, out of mind”: observations are fragmented, monitoring approaches vary widely, and we still lack a comprehensive understanding of how subsurface temperatures are changing and what these changes mean.
This session brings together research on subsurface temperature monitoring, from soil and borehole measurements to groundwater temperature observations, as well as approaches for estimation, modelling, and prediction in both urban and rural environments. We also welcome studies investigating changes in subsurface temperature and seasonality and their consequences. Contributions may span spatial and temporal scales, from individual monitoring sites and urban environments to regional and global assessments. We particularly encourage work exploring both the challenges and opportunities associated with changing subsurface temperature regimes.
Phenological changes induced by ongoing climate change are affecting species, ecosystems, and even the global climate by altering species performance, species interactions (potential mismatches and new opportunities in the food web), and water and carbon cycles. Observations of plant and animal phenology as well as remote sensing and modeling studies document complex interactions and raise many open questions about the future sustainability of species and ecosystems. In this session we invite all contributions that address seasonality changes based on plant and animal phenological observations, pollen monitoring, historical documentary sources, or seasonality measurements using climate data, remote sensing, flux measurements, modeling studies or experiments. We also welcome contributions addressing cross-disciplinary perspectives and international collaborations and program-building initiatives including citizen science networks and data analyses from these networks.
This session is organized by a consortium representing the International Society of Biometeorology (Phenology Commission), the Pan-European Phenology Network - PEP725, the Swiss Academy of Science SCNAT, the TEMPO French Phenology Network and the USA National Phenology Network.
Climate change-induced drought and extreme events are exerting increasing pressure on forest persistence and resilience. This pressure manifests across biological, spatial and temporal scales, from trees adjusting physiological processes and resource allocation under limiting water conditions to changes in interactions among individuals, species and their environment. These responses can translate into altered growth and functioning, increased mortality, and shifts in population dynamics and community structure.
A major challenge is to understand how processes and responses observed at one organizational scale relate to those emerging at others. This requires integrating complementary perspectives.
This session welcomes research connecting two or more scales of tree-to-forest responses, from biochemical and ecophysiological processes to, populations, communities and landscapes. We invite contributions using stable isotopes, tree rings, ecophysiological measurements, experiments, long-term forest observations, remote sensing, demographic approaches aimed at understanding the processes of forest resilience in a rapidly changing climate.
The radiation budget of the Earth is a key determinant for the genesis and evolution of climate on our planet and provides the primary energy source for life. Anthropogenic interference with climate occurs first of all through a perturbation of the Earth radiation balance. We invite observational, modelling and data-driven papers on all aspects of radiation and energy flows in the climate system. A specific aim of this session is to bring together newly available information on the spatial and temporal variation of radiative and energy fluxes at the surface, within the atmosphere and at the top of atmosphere (including EEI). This information may be obtained from direct measurements, satellite-derived products, climate modelling as well as AI-based and process studies. Scales considered may range from local radiation and energy balance studies to continental and global scales. In addition, related studies on the spatial and temporal variation of cloud properties, albedo, water vapour and aerosols, which are essential for our understanding of radiative forcings, feedbacks, and related climate change, are encouraged. Studies focusing on the impact of radiative forcings on the various components of the climate system, such as on the hydrological cycle, on the cryosphere or on the biosphere and related carbon cycle, are also much appreciated.
High-quality observational data are crucial to establish reliable datasets for studying historical changes, the current state, and the future evolution of Earth's climate. This session provides a forum to discuss best practices for quality control, harmonization, and homogenization of observational data for climate services and applications. Key topics include data assimilation into reanalyses (e.g., ECMWF's forthcoming ERA-6), as well as integration into physical retrieval algorithms and AI/ML techniques (e.g., within ESA's Climate Change Initiative or EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facilities). We also invite contributions analyzing the impact of these data on long-term Essential Climate Variable (ECV) datasets.
Integrating observational data into climate services demands strict quality and consistency standards, including calibration, spatial/temporal coverage, and homogeneity. Reanalyses perform best with well-calibrated data that preserve each sensor's unique characteristics (harmonized data), whereas long-term ECV datasets across atmospheric, terrestrial, and oceanic domains rely on data adjusted to a common reference (homogenized data).
We invite contributions on climate datasets from in-situ observation networks, satellite remote sensing, and reanalyses. The aim is to bring together data developers and users to demonstrate the downstream impact of these observational data on climate applications. Specifically, the session seeks presentations on:
- Data rescue and recovery of historical climate datasets.
- Harmonization, homogenization, and validation of observational climate datasets.
- Novel prospects (AI/ML) to exploit observations and their emerging requirements.
- Impact evaluation of observational datasets on climate services, trend analysis, and attribution studies of weather and climate extremes.
Atmospheric reanalyses combine historical observations with a consistent numerical weather prediction model and data assimilation system to provide spatially and temporally complete reconstructions of the atmosphere. They are indispensable tools for studying climate variability, atmospheric dynamics and high-impact weather. However, their utility in diagnosing the mechanisms behind extreme events can be limited by inherent structural uncertainties and data artefacts. While modern reanalyses generally agree on large-scale climatological means, discrepancies can emerge when evaluating transient sub-synoptic gradients, localised diabatic feedbacks, and circulation features during extreme events. These differences can be particularly pronounced in regions and periods with sparse observational coverage, where reanalyses are more weakly constrained by observations and therefore more susceptible to biases in the underlying model and data-assimilation system. Furthermore, changes in the assimilated observations can introduce non-climatic jumps, representation errors, and artificial trends.
This session provides a forum for diagnosing uncertainties, limitations and artefacts in global and regional reanalyses when studying tropospheric circulation and weather extremes. We invite contributions addressing:
1. Structural uncertainties from large-scale teleconnections to atmospheric blocking, jet stream waviness, Rossby wave breaking, and storm tracks across reanalysis products (e.g., ERA5, MERRA-2, JRA-3Q).
2. Artefacts, discontinuities, and spurious trends introduced by changes in the observing system over time, alongside robust variability and trends shared across reanalysis.
3. Representation errors in land-atmosphere and air-sea coupling, including how biases in sensible/latent heat fluxes, diabatic heating and water budgets alter synoptic- and mesoscale extremes (e.g., convective environments, atmospheric rivers, explosive cyclogenesis).
4. Physical consistency, uncertainties, and artefacts in emerging machine-learning-based or AI-assisted reanalyses, particularly during extreme weather.
We welcome both studies evaluating the suitability and robustness of reanalyses for diagnosing tropospheric circulation and weather extremes, and science-driven studies using multiple reanalyses to assess the robustness of specific atmospheric or climate questions.
Attribution research in the context of climate change investigates the extent to which human influence, via different factors, contributes to changes and events in the climate system and their impacts on natural, managed, and human systems. Disentangling external forcing and climate variability as well as isolating climate change impacts from other drivers is a challenging task engaging various approaches.
The field of Detection and Attribution (D&A) identifies historical changes over long timescales, typically multi-decadal, of weather and climate as well as their impacts. D&A specifically quantifies the contributions of various external forcings as their signal emerges from internal climate variability. Moreover, event attribution (EA) assesses how human-induced climate change is modifying the frequency and/or intensity of extreme weather events (e.g. a heatwave), their impacts (e.g., economic loss or loss of life associated with flooding), or events from an impact perspective (e.g., a crop failure). These and other analyses focusing on attributing impacts combine observations with model-based evidence or process understanding. The attribution of climate change impacts is particularly complex due to the influence of additional non-climatic human influences.
This session highlights recent studies from the broad spectrum of attribution research that address some or all steps of the climate-impact chain from emissions to climate variables, to impacts in natural, managed, and human systems and aims to explore the diversity of methods employed across disciplines and schools of thought. It also covers a broad range of applications, case studies, current challenges of the field, and avenues for expanding the attribution research community. It specifically also includes studies that focus on the influence of specific externally forced changes as well as separating, quantifying, and understanding internal variability as both constitute a key uncertainty in climate attribution.
Presentations will cover common and new methodologies (improved statistical methods, statistical causality, Artificial Intelligence) using single climate realisations, large ensembles, or other methods to derive counterfactuals, on single climate variable or compound/cascading events, on impacts on natural, managed, or human systems.
Climate change is reshaping European ecosystems through increasing drought, heat stress and disturbances frequency and intensity as well as increased plant mortality, thereby altering the structure and composition of these ecosystems. Plants regeneration therefore appears as a key process for the persistence and redistribution of plant populations under these changing conditions. Regeneration is not a single demographic rate, but rather a trajectory consisting of a sequence of stages and transitions, from flowering and seed production through dispersal, germination, establishment, and recruitment. This breadth, together with the scarcity of long-term and large-scale monitoring, result in regeneration being poorly understood compared to other processes, despite its central role in determining the future dynamics of populations and communities.
Because successful recruitment depends on plant survival throughout the regeneration trajectory, climate-driven changes occurring at any stage of this trajectory can constrain the success of subsequent stages and ultimately determine regeneration success. Conversely, other stages may potentially buffer the negative effects of climate change. The future and importance of each regeneration stage in the upcoming years therefore depend on its sensitivity to environmental drivers. Although important drivers are likely to be stage- and species-specific and to be variable among regions and environmental conditions, this variation could also reveal broader and potentially generalisable patterns.
Many questions remain as to which stages of regeneration are most sensitive to ongoing climate change, where and under which conditions regeneration is most at risk, and which species, populations, traits, or environmental contexts support resilience. This session aims to bring together research on managed and unmanaged ecosystems (excluding purely agricultural settings) across the regeneration trajectory. We welcome contributions using long-term observational data, experiments, spatial gradients, demographic analyses, and modelling to investigate how biotic and environmental drivers shape European’s tree and long-lived plant regeneration. By gathering observations from numerous species, regeneration stages and locations evidence, this session seeks to advance understanding of where and why regeneration is succeeding or failing, and what these changes imply for the composition and resilience of European ecosystems.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) describes adaptation as the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects, in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. With over 1 degree Celsius of global warming already experienced, adapting to current and future climate changes is now of far greater focus for all levels of policymaking than ever before. Yet, the IPCC and the UNEP-WASP Adaptation Gap Reports (2023) both conclude that despite progress, adaptation gaps exist and will continue to grow at current rates of implementation.
More recently, the UNFCCC had agreed a set of 59 Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) Indicators, of which, monitoring, evaluation and learning is one of the four core targets. The text states that by 2030, all Parties have designed, established and operationalized a system for monitoring, evaluation and learning for their national adaptation efforts and have built the required institutional capacity to fully implement the system.
Satellite Earth Observation (EO) revolutionized systemic observations and has played a pivotal role in understanding climate changes to date, yet its potential to support adaptation is only beginning to be explored. EO has great potential for supporting climate action across all stages of the adaptation process, greater than what is already being achieved today.
This session will highlight ongoing research projects that use EO to plan, monitor and/or evaluate climate change adaptation across a multitude of scales and sectors.
References
IPCC, 2022: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 3056 pp., doi:10.1017/9781009325844.
Connors, S., Schneider, R., Nalau, J. et al. Earth observations for climate adaptation: tracking progress towards the Global Goal on Adaptation through satellite-derived indicators. npj Clim Atmos Sci 8, 359 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01251-1
United Nations Environment Programme (2023). Adaptation Gap Report 2023: Underfinanced. Underprepared. Inadequate investment and planning on climate adaptation leaves world exposed. Nairobi. https://doi.org/10.59117/20.500.11822/43796
The UNFCCC Global Goal on Adaptation Indicators: https://unfccc.int/topics/adaptation-and-resilience/workstreams/gga
Urban areas fundamentally alter micro- to regional-scale atmospheric and hydrological processes via modification of energy and water balances. With urbanization continuing globally, understanding and mitigating these impacts on society and infrastructure is critical. This session solicits submissions from research and practice communities bridging natural and social sciences to address urban climate and water challenges. Relevant approaches span micro- to regional-scale modeling, high-resolution satellite remote sensing, and dense low-cost or crowdsourced networks that capture fine-scale to city-wide heterogeneity of the urban canopy layer.
We welcome studies on urban atmospheric and hydrological dynamics, their biometeorological implications, and the efficacy of urban planning and design strategies in mitigating the impacts of urban heat, floods, droughts, and other hazards.
We specifically invite research:
- resolving these processes across different spatial and temporal scales
- linking physical dynamics with human health and well-being under extreme events
- highlighting cascading and compound hazards such as concurrent heatwaves, drought and pluvial flooding, and their disproportionate impacts on communities with unequal adaptive capacity
- focusing on actionable science demonstrating how cities use novel data products and climate services to guide planning and policy
- applying emerging innovations and approaches that foster climate-resilient and adaptive cities and citizens, such as digital twins, AI-based forecasting, early-warning systems, and citizen science, as well as other innovations for climate resilience.
Climate model development is currently undergoing profound expansion with the application of cutting-edge technologies such as machine learning, the development of process resolving models on ever finer scales and the improved representation of climate variability and trends. However, deficiencies in model simulations remain and work to address these continues as we strive to understand our rapidly changing climate. Observations are a vital for improving models: guiding development foci and for evaluation of model performance. At the same time the observational ecosystem is constantly changing not least due to shifting funding priorities for both space and earth-based observation networks. Nevertheless, recent years have seen increased engagement between observation providers and the modelling community and, importantly, the start of significant improvements in communicating observation quality and uncertainty. The interface between observations and models is complex and identifying the correct observational dataset for a specific application is not always straightforward, particularly for satellite-derived CDRs, where retrieval assumption and algorithm choices can generate uncertainties comparable to the model differences. Developments in this space recognise that better communication between observational and modelling communities is required and a number of initiatives provide platforms which allow access to datasets in standardised formats or peer reviewed and traceable methods to produce model validation diagnostics.
The WCRP core project CLIVAR and the WCRP ESMO working group WGORC are jointly organising this session with the aim to build stronger links between observational and modelling communities and explore recent advances in the use of observations for evaluating climate models.
We invite submissions on innovative approaches comparing models and observations including, but not limited to, the detailed consideration of uncertainties, use of ensembles and the use of novel observational datasets. We also welcome studies which use observations to assess processes across the coupled climate system and presentations showcasing recent developments in tools and platforms and data driven methods for model/observation comparisons.
Long-term instrumental weather records are limited even in data-rich regions such as Europe and North America, and are much scarcer elsewhere. Understanding climate change requires a truly global picture built from observations worldwide. The existing gaps limit our ability to study multi-decadal climate change across much of the globe. Closing them requires a coordinated international effort to create a comprehensive inventory of records that already exist in paper format, scan them, and rescue their data. These observations provide a key starting point for understanding past climates, a reference for validating climate models, and essential input for climate reanalyses.
This session invites abstracts on the identification and rescue of historical weather observations from previously unexplored locations and periods, including former European territories and administrative regions, as well as newly independent countries in Asia and Africa. Contributions focusing on the creation of inventories of historical weather records are also particularly welcome. Submissions may address new data sources, innovative methods of data extraction, or applications of rescued data. We particularly welcome work using automated AI/ML workflows, citizen-science approaches, and best practices, as well as studies applying historical data to understand climate extremes, floods, and other risks. By incorporating evidence from historical extreme climate events, this session will further support research and action on climate adaptation.
Traditionally, hydrologists focus on the partitioning of precipitation water on the land surface into evaporation and runoff, while ignoring factors that influence precipitation. However, more than half of the evaporation globally returns as precipitation on land. Given this important feedback of the water cycle, changes in land-use and water-use, as well as climate variability and change, impact not only the partitioning of precipitation water but also the atmospheric input of water as precipitation, at both remote and local scales.
This session aims to:
i. investigate the remote and local atmospheric feedbacks from human interventions such as greenhouse gasses, irrigation, deforestation, and reservoirs on the water cycle, precipitation and climate, based on observations and coupled modelling approaches,
ii. investigate the use of hydroclimatic frameworks such as the Budyko framework to understand the human and climate effects on both atmospheric water input and partitioning,
iii. explore the implications of atmospheric feedbacks on the hydrological cycle for land and water management.
Applied studies in this session may adopt fundamental characteristics of the atmospheric branch of the hydrological cycle on different scales. These fundamentals include, but are not limited to, atmospheric circulation, humidity, hydroclimate frameworks, residence times, recycling ratios, sources and sinks of atmospheric moisture, energy balance and climatic extremes. Studies may also evaluate different data sources for atmospheric hydrology and implications for inter-comparison and meta-analysis. Examples of data sources and methodological approaches include observation networks, isotopic studies, conceptual models, Budyko-based hydroclimatological assessments, back-trajectories, reanalysis and fully coupled Earth system model simulations.
CL3.1 – Future Climate – Climate Change: From Regional to Global
Sub-Programme Group Scientific Officers: Janina J. Nett, Gabriele Messori
Proposals are marked in red.
Geographical Climatology in a Changing World: Spatial Patterns, Extremes and Human–Environment Interactions
Warming-Induced Emissions and Earth System Feedbacks: Overshoot, (Ir)Reversibility, and the Carbon Budget
BG9 | Earth System Remote Sensing and Modelling
Advances in Understanding Solar Radiation Modification Technologies and their Impact on the Earth System
AS5 | Methods and Techniques
BG1 | General Biogeosciences
ERE1 | Integrated studies
NH9 | Natural Hazards & Society
NP2 | Dynamical Systems Approaches to Problems in the Geosciences
Synoptic and Large-Scale Circulation Dynamics: Impacts on Regional Extremes, Climate Variability, and Change
AS3 | Atmospheric Composition, Chemistry and Aerosols
GI7 | Instrumentation for Polar and Harsh Environments
GS8 | Science for Policy & Governance
NH11 | Climate Hazards
Dry-hot compound extremes in a warming world: critical thresholds, emerging regimes, and tipping cascading risks
CL3.2 – Future Climate – Climate and Society
Sub-Programme Group Scientific Officers: Kerstin Treydte, Janina J. Nett
Proposals are marked in red.
Tipping points refer to critical thresholds in the Earth system that, once crossed, can lead to rapid and potentially irreversible changes in environmental conditions in systems such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, tropical and boreal forests, permafrost, and monsoon systems. They remain a major source of uncertainty in climate projections, particularly at the regional level, with potentially profound impacts on the climate, ecological, and societal systems, and are therefore highly relevant to the national and international climate assessment reports and climate adaptation plans, including the IPCC's Seventh Assessment Report (AR7).
This session invites contributions that advance our understanding of tipping dynamics through climate and Earth system modelling approaches. We particularly welcome multi-model analyses building on a number of recent multimodel experiment protocols, including TIPMIP-ESM (Jones et al. 2026), TIPMIP-Ocean (Swingedouw et al. 2026), TIPMIP-Ice as well as the CMIP7 AFT and other MIPs, investigating climate responses and tipping behaviours across the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and biosphere. We also encourage cross-component syntheses that compare the mechanisms, thresholds, timescales, and reversibility of different tipping elements. The session also invites studies using other modelling frameworks and approaches — including single-model analyses — with a focus on tipping dynamics in any Earth system component. We aim to bring together the climate modelling community working across this broad theme, to foster comparisons across models and methodologies (thus distinguishing robust from model-dependent findings), and ultimately to inform the assessment of tipping risks for AR7.
Earth resilience is the capacity of the intertwined human-Earth system to resist, recover, and regenerate back to a Holocene-like and habitable functioning in response to human pressures. A deeper understanding of Earth system resilience is key to charting safe operating spaces for prosperous and equitable future human development. Recent assessments of Earth system integrity highlight the deteriorating resilience of our planet, with planetary-scale human pressures (such as greenhouse gas emissions and land-use change) pushing the Earth system into the uncharted territory of the Anthropocene. Of particular concern are risks of triggering nonlinear changes in large-scale components of the Earth that can undergo abrupt, often irreversible state shifts once critical thresholds are crossed. Examples include the Greenland ice sheets, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and major ecosystems such as the Amazon rainforest. Their interactions may trigger tipping cascades, where the destabilization of one element increases the risk of others tipping, thereby amplifying Earth system change and undermining long-term Earth resilience.
The Earth system’s future trajectory is now co-shaped by human–Earth system feedbacks, where human activities both drive and respond to biophysical change. Fossil fuel use, deforestation, and land-use intensification contribute to destabilizing Earth system dynamics, while societal responses - such as mitigation policies, technological innovation, or behavioral shifts - can either reinforce unsustainable trajectories or create stabilizing feedbacks. In this context, research is uncovering the potential for social tipping dynamics, which could accelerate decarbonization and foster transformative pathways towards global sustainability to revitalize and regenerate Earth resilience.
We invite contributions on all topics relating to Earth resilience, planetary boundaries, safe operating spaces, tipping points in the Earth system, positive (social) tipping, as well as their interactions and potential domino effects. We welcome studies that use Earth system modelling, integrated human-Earth system models, from conceptual approaches to data-driven analysis to investigate nonlinear dynamics, abrupt shifts, and tipping points, as well as contributions exploring social transformation processes and their role in shaping a more sustainable future for people and the planet.
Weather and climate extremes, such as recent events unprecedented in the observational record, have extensive impact globally. Some of these events would have been nearly impossible without human-made climate change, exhibiting conditions well beyond previous records due to complex, and at times unprecedented configurations of their underlying physical drivers. Furthermore, compounding hazards and cascading risks resulting from these high-impact extremes are becoming evident. Continued warming does not only increase the frequency and intensity of such extremes, it also potentially increases the risk of unseen non-linear behaviours or unprecedented impacts. To increase preparedness for high-impact climate events, developing novel methods, models and process-understanding that capture these hazards and their associated impacts is paramount.
This session aims to bring together the latest research quantifying and understanding high-impact climate events in past, present and future climates. We welcome studies across all spatial and temporal scales, and covering compound, cascading, and connected extremes as well as worst-case scenarios, with the ultimate goal to provide actionable climate information to increase societal preparedness to such extreme high-impact events.
We invite work addressing high-impact extreme events via, but not limited to, model experiments and intercomparisons, diverse storyline approaches such as event-based or dynamical storylines, climate projections including large ensembles and unseen events, insights from paleo archives, and attribution studies. We also especially welcome contributions focusing on physical understanding of high-impact events, on their ecological and socioeconomic impacts, as well as on approaches to potentially limit societal impacts.
The session is closely linked to the World Climate Research Programme lighthouse activities on Understanding High-Risk Events and Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change.
Explosive volcanic eruptions inject large volumes of ash and gas into the atmosphere, with significant environmental and climatic consequences. As human populations increasingly occupy volcanic regions, and as global trade, transport, and food systems become more interconnected, the impacts of eruptions are no longer confined to the host country. Even geologically ‘modest’ events (e.g., Eyjafjallajökull 2010 CE) can trigger cascading, global-scale disruptions with serious economic, societal, and environmental repercussions. Studying large explosive eruptions, and their impacts on both climate and society can help to prepare for volcanic-induced disruptions in the future. Namely, because it provides critical opportunity to: (1) assess their short- (<1 year) and long-term (>1000 years) impacts on the Earth system, (2) improve calibration of climate model simulations, (3) understand their impacts on civilisational development, and (5) evaluate how modern human activities may be pushing Earth system responses to eruption events into new states. However, despite substantial recent advances, challenges remain in quantifying eruption impacts across different magnitudes, styles, and regions.
This session invites contributions that seek to address these challenges by improving reconstructions of past eruptions, elucidating climate system responses, and assessing implications for human infrastructure and society. This encompasses a variety of research themes including (but not limited to) volcanology, paleoclimatology, history, archaeology and tephrochronology, as well as ash/aerosol and climate modelling. We encourage submissions from disciplines related to policy development and volcanic risk management, particularly in regions vulnerable to disruptions of food, energy, and water resources. Hence, this session is well suited to scientific research looking to advance interdisciplinary understanding of links between volcanism, climate, and society, and enhance global preparedness for future volcanic crises.
Achieving the climate goals of the Paris Agreement requires deep greenhouse gas emissions reductions towards a net-zero world and beyond. Advancements in mitigation-relevant science continuously inform the strategies and measures that society could pursue to achieve this goal. This session aims to further our understanding of the science surrounding the pursuit of the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal, including carbon budgets, zero emissions commitment, carbon dioxide removal strategies, and their policy implications. We will explore global to regional climate dynamics under net-zero, and peak and decline CO2 pathways, and mechanisms of committed or irreversible changes, including the risk of non-linear Earth system change.
We welcome both theoretical, empirical and modelling studies exploring all aspects of climate change in response to ambitious mitigation scenarios, including overshoot pathways through scenarios that pursue net negative emissions and a reversal of global warming. In addition to studies exploring the remaining carbon budget and the transient climate response to cumulative emissions of CO2 (TCRE), we welcome contributions on the zero emissions commitment (ZEC), effects of different forcings and feedbacks (e.g. permafrost carbon feedback), non-CO2 contributions to stringent climate change mitigation (e.g. non-CO2 greenhouse gases, and aerosols), and climate and carbon-cycle effects of carbon removal strategies, including their implications for policy. We also invite analysis focusing on consequences in a wide range of Earth System components and sectors, from ocean dynamics to the cryosphere, biodiversity and biosphere changes to human systems and economic consequences of overshoot, as well as the implications of overshoots for climate change adaptation planning.
We invite contributions that use a variety of tools, including fully coupled Earth System Models (ESMs), sectoral impact models, Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), or Simple Climate Models (SCMs) and climate emulators. Interdisciplinary contributions from the fields of climate policy and economics focused on applications of carbon budgets, net-zero pathways, and their wider implications are also encouraged.
Climate services challenge the traditional interface between users and providers of climate information as it requires the establishment of a dialogue between subjects, who often have limited knowledge of each-other’s activities and practices. Increasing the understanding and usability of climate information for societal use has become a major challenge where economic growth, and social development crucially depends on adaptation to climate variability and change.
To this regard, climate services do not only create user-relevant climate information, but also stimulate the need to quantify vulnerabilities and come up with appropriate adaptation solutions that can be applied in practice. This session invites contributions from all fields in which climate information is used in decision-making processes, including agriculture, renewable energy, banking, water management, tourism and any other societal sector dependent on climate information.
The operational generation, management and delivery of climate services poses a number of new challenges to the traditional way of accessing and distributing climate data. With a private sector growing and playing an increasingly important role as a service provider, it is important to understand the roles and responsibilities of publicly funded climate data, information and services, as well as the standardisation process for climate services.
This session aims to gather best practices and lessons learnt, for how climate services can successfully facilitate adaptation to climate variability and change by providing climate information that is tailored to the real user need.
Contributions are encouraged from public and private climate services providers, as well as from international efforts (GFCS, CSP, …); European Initiatives (HEU, ERA4CS, C3S, ClimatEurope, ECRA, JPI-Climate…) as well as national, regional and local experiences.
Climate change is reshaping infectious-disease risks. Hydroclimatic extremes such as floods, droughts, and heatwaves can alter vector habitats, pathogen survival, water quality, sanitation, human mobility and patterns of human contact. Adaptation measures (including vector control, water management, healthcare preparedness, vaccination and behavioural responses) can reduce these risks or unintentionally create new pathways of transmission.
The session welcomes contributions on vector-borne, waterborne, foodborne, respiratory and zoonotic diseases, including research on compound hazards, unequal impacts and adaptation responses. We particularly invite diverse methodological approaches, including:
Dynamical systems approaches to modelling and understanding infectious diseases
Large-scale statistical, epidemiological and climate–health analyses;
Process-based and data-driven models;
Local, urban and neighbourhood-scale modelling;
Qualitative, participatory and mixed-methods approaches;
Surveys, behavioural studies and assessments of public perceptions;
Surveillance, early-warning and climate-informed forecasting systems;
Evaluations of adaptation, preparedness, resilience and risk-management strategies.
Veterinary medicine
The session aims to bring together researchers working across geosciences, climate science, epidemiology, microbiology, ecology, public health and disaster-risk reduction. By connecting these perspectives, we hope to improve understanding of when and where natural hazards become infectious-disease threats, and how these risks can be anticipated and managed.
This session invites contributions advancing the understanding, modelling, and prediction of extreme events in weather, climate, and other geophysical systems. It brings together researchers from the geophysical sciences and those applying mathematical, statistical, and dynamical-systems approaches.
Topics of interest include, but are not limited to:
* Variability and projected changes in extremes under climate change
* Representation of extreme events in weather and climate models
* Attribution of extreme events
* Emergent constraints on extreme-event behaviour
* Predictability of extremes across meteorological and climate timescales
* Connections between extremes in dynamical systems and observed geophysical extremes
* Theoretical and applied studies of extremes in nonlinear and chaotic systems
* Downscaling methods for extreme events
* Links between the physical dynamics of extremes and their impacts on society and ecosystems
We particularly welcome interdisciplinary contributions, novel methodologies, and studies connecting theory with observed geophysical extremes. Submissions from early-career researchers are especially encouraged.
CL4 – Climate Studies Across Timescales
Sub-Programme Group Scientific Officers: Carole Nehme, Elisabeth Dietze
Climate change has long shaped the distribution, adaptation, and extinction of terrestrial life. Past climate variability has driven large-scale migrations, evolutionary innovations, and ecosystem restructuring, while modern human activities have added unprecedented pressures to biodiversity and habitats. Understanding the complex interactions between climate and life is essential for assessing the ongoing biodiversity crisis and developing effective strategies for future conservation.
This session explores how climate influences terrestrial life and ecosystems across timescales – from deep-time events to present, and future challenges. We welcome multidisciplinary studies integrating climate science, ecology, paleoecology, evolutionary biology, and conservation.
Topics of interest include,
- Extinctions: drivers, mechanisms, and ecological consequences
- Biodiversity: changes in species distribution and emerging trends
- Vegetation and biome dynamics
- Climate- and human-induced habitat fragmentation and ecological connectivity.
- Adaptation and resilience: species and ecosystem response to environmental changes
- Climate-human-faunal interactions and influence on ecosystems
- Insights from advanced observations, ecological datasets and climate-ecosystem models
By connecting past, present, and future perspectives, this session aims to forge collaborations and cross-disciplinary dialogue on climate–life interactions and implications for terrestrial ecosystems.
In response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and land-use change, we are transitioning towards a climate state that may feature rapid changes. This will have severe impacts on the occurrence of extreme weather events and increasing risk of crossing large-scale tipping points. Neither these transitions nor long-term climate states have been observed by instrumental measurements, making information on past climatic states increasingly important to anticipate future Earth System change. The availability of paleoenvironmental records have enormously expanded over the past decades, providing extremely rich information about physical, cryospheric, biological, and ecological processes on many spatial and temporal scales. Yet, it has been challenging so far to directly transform knowledge on past processes into a more confident evaluation of future projections for the Earth system.
Being able to reconstruct past climate evolution is a necessary step for enhancing our capacity to look into the future. Incorporating palaeodata-based information on past climate requires substantial improvements to state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs). So far, ESMs are mainly calibrated and validated with respect to the instrumental records of the last ~170 years of relatively stable climate, while the Earth’s longer-term history is characterised by an interplay of gradual climate change, variability, and critical transitions between competing states, with profound impacts on climate subsystems, ecosystems, and civilisations.
Understanding the leading dynamical processes and feedbacks and in particular improving our ability to model and anticipate critical transitions in the climate and ecosystems is key to project future climate change on spatio-temporal scales relevant for societies, ecosystems, and the planet.
We invite contributions that
- advance process understanding of past climate changes and enhance ESM development through high resolution reconstructions of five key climate system parameters: atmospheric CO2-concentration, ice sheet (sea level) and sea ice extent, ocean temperatures, and terrestrial vegetation;
- explore modern approaches to incorporate palaeoclimate information into the development of ESMs of varying complexity, including rigorous model-data comparison techniques;
- make use of information from paleoenvironmental proxy data, past civilisations, ESMs, and rigorous theoretical approaches - individually or in combination.
Climate change is altering the characteristics of extreme events globally, affecting their frequency, intensity, duration, timing, spatial extent, and persistence. Extreme precipitation, heatwaves, droughts and flash droughts, floods, tropical cyclones, and compound events can generate cascading impacts on water resources, agriculture, ecosystems, human health, and infrastructure. Understanding where and how extremes are changing, the physical mechanisms driving these changes, and their links to anthropogenic climate change is essential for assessing evolving climate risks.
This session invites research on the evolution of climate extremes across past, present, and future climates using observations, palaeo-climate records, reanalyses, climate models, and statistical approaches. We particularly welcome studies examining the physical drivers of extremes, including atmospheric circulation, moisture transport, land-atmosphere interactions, ocean-atmosphere coupling, and large-scale climate variability. Studies of compound, concurrent, sequential, and rapidly transitioning extremes, including hydroclimatic whiplash, are especially encouraged.
Contributions addressing future changes in extreme-event intensity, frequency, seasonality, spatial distribution, and dependence between hazards are welcome, alongside studies of model uncertainty, internal variability, scenario uncertainty, and detection and attribution. We particularly encourage emerging AI/ML and data-driven approaches for extreme event detection, prediction, attribution, downscaling, and process understanding, including hybrid physics-ML frameworks and explainable methods. Critical assessments of their uncertainty, physical interpretability, and transferability are also encouraged.
By connecting observed changes, physical processes, and future projections, this session aims to advance understanding of evolving climate extremes and the uncertainties and emerging risks associated with them.
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) identified four fundamental topics on which coupled modelling offers opportunities for rapid progress across the seventh phase of the project, CMIP7: 1) Patterns of sea surface warming, 2) Changing extremes, 3) The Water-Carbon-Climate nexus, and 4) Points of no return/ratcheting. CMIP7 includes Diagnostic, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima (DECK) and Assessment Fast Track experiments to address these guiding science priorities as well as the community’s requirements for prediction and projection, attribution, characterisation, and process understanding towards assessment of state-of-the-art Earth system models.
We invite contributions across research using coupled Earth system modelling including representation of historical and future change, comparison with previous CMIP phases, idealised analyses, single- or multi-model frameworks, and others across different timescales. We are especially interested in studies examining responses using the CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track. Submissions that explore interactions across multiple components of the Earth system—ocean, atmosphere, cryosphere, land surface and subsurface, and biosphere—and highlight novel insight into the coupled Earth system are highly encouraged.
Tropical reef ecosystems are facing a potential turning-point as they are experiencing the most extreme conditions on record. While the 4th global coral bleaching event (2023–25) exposed ~84% of the world's reefs to bleaching-level heat stress, the next extreme El Niño has started. Yet the observational baseline against which these events are assessed spans only a few decades, whereas the processes that determine whether certain reefs will persist can span centuries to millennia. To assess whether corals can adapt or have adapted to these extremes and which reefs will survive, we require baseline data that go far beyond current timespans alongside improved projections of the coming decades to centuries. Such information also provides an important foundation for restoration and conservation planning–a growing need. This session aims to bring together coral palaeoclimatology, reef (palaeo)ecology and (palaeo)biology, observations, and modelling relevant to restoration and conservation planning, policy-making, and understanding tropical climate dynamics.
We invite contributions from tropical and subtropical settings, including marginal, turbid and naturally extreme reefs, across timescales from deep time to future projections. Topics include, but are not limited to:
• high-resolution coral reconstructions and observations of ocean and climate variability (ENSO, IOD); oceanographic/ecological monitoring, remote sensing; skeletal growth/calcification, other marine biogenic archives (molluscs, sclerosponges, coralline algae)
• proxy development, process understanding; novel geochemical proxies (nitrogen, boron, clumped isotopes), biomineralisation
• coral reef ecology, biology, physiology under stress; thermal tolerance, trophic ecology, microbial symbiont dynamics, connectivity, community change, adaptation, reef refugia
• databases, synthesis, FAIR workflows; PAGES CoralHydro2k and CoralHydro2k-Seawater, CoralCache, GBR Coral Skeletal Records; proxy system modelling, isotope-enabled simulations, data assimilation, proxy-model comparison
• future projections of tropical climate and reef environments constrained by palaeorecords and observations; translation into baselines, thresholds, conservation planning
Contributions from coordinated programmes, such as PAGES working groups (e.g., 2k Network), DFG Priority Programme "Tropical Climate Variability & Coral Reefs", IODP research (e.g., IODP Exp. 389 Hawaiian Drowned Reefs), among others, are welcome.
Northeast Greenland occupies an important position within the Arctic, linking the Greenland Ice Sheet and ice-free terrestrial landscapes with the Arctic Ocean and Greenland Sea. Geologically and environmentally, the region has undergone major change associated with the opening and deepening of Fram Strait, the onset and intensification of Arctic–Atlantic water exchange, the early formation of ephemeral glaciers, the later build-up of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and its repeated expansion and retreat throughout the Quaternary. Ice-core records from EGRIP provide insights into past climate and ice-sheet dynamics, while observations of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream and its outlet glaciers reveal ongoing changes in one of the ice sheet's major drainage systems. Under ongoing anthropogenically forced warming, Northeast Greenland is particularly sensitive to Arctic amplification, resulting in rapid changes across its terrestrial, cryospheric, marine and atmospheric systems. Understanding these changes, their interactions and their future trajectories requires integration across disciplines and timescales.
We invite contributions from marine, cryospheric, terrestrial and atmospheric research focused on Northeast Greenland, extending from eastern North Greenland to northern East Greenland. Studies that improve our understanding of the region across geological timescales through the present and into the future, using geological and palaeoenvironmental archives, ice-core records, contemporary observations, process studies, remote sensing and numerical modelling, are all invited. We particularly encourage studies that explore connections among systems, including the dynamics and evolution of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream, ice-sheet–ocean interactions, atmospheric and oceanic forcing, freshwater and sediment fluxes, ocean circulation and sea ice, long-term landscape evolution and its interactions with glaciation, permafrost dynamics, and terrestrial and marine ecosystem change.
Climate modeling is pushing the frontier towards increasingly complex, high-resolution earth system models (ESMs). At the same time, nonlinearities and emergent phenomena in the climate system are often studied by means of conceptual models, which offer qualitative understanding and permit theoretical approaches. Recent advancements in statistical and physical emulators – ranging from reduced-complexity climate models to machine learning-based techniques – are enabling rapid and computationally efficient assessments of climate trajectories, impacts, and risks.
Between these approaches, a persistent “gap between simulation and understanding” (Held 2005) challenges our ability to transfer insights from conceptual models to reality, and to distill the physical mechanisms underlying the behavior of complex (climate) models. This calls for a concerted effort to learn from the entire model hierarchy, understanding the differences and similarities across its various levels of complexity, to increase confidence in climate projections.
In this session, we invite contributions from all subfields of climate science that showcase how different modeling approaches advance our understanding of the Earth system and its components, and/or highlight inconsistencies in the model hierarchy. We also welcome studies exploring a single modeling approach, as we aim to encourage exchange between researchers working on different rungs of the model complexity ladder. Contributions may employ dynamical systems models, physics-based low-order models, explainable machine learning, Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs), simplified or idealized setups of ESMs (radiative-convective equilibrium, single-column models, aquaplanets, slab-ocean models, idealized geography, etc.), full ESMs or standalone models of components of the Earth system, and km-scale models.
Processes and phenomena of interest include, but are not limited to:
* Earth system response to climate forcing
* Tipping behavior and critical transitions
* (Coupled) modes of climate variability
* Extremes and predictability
This session covers climate predictions from seasonal to multi-decadal timescales and their applications. Continuing to improve such predictions is of major importance to society. The session embraces advances in our understanding of the origins of seasonal to decadal predictability and of the limitations of such predictions. This includes advances in improving forecast skill and reliability and making the most of this information by developing and evaluating new applications and climate services, including windows of opportunity.
The session welcomes contributions from dynamical modeling, machine-learning or other statistical methods and hybrid approaches. It will investigate predictions of various climate phenomena, including extremes, from global to regional scales, and from seasonal to multi-decadal timescales (including seamless predictions). Physical processes and sources relevant to seasonal to (multi-)decadal predictability (e.g. ocean, cryosphere, or land) as well as predicting large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with teleconnections will be discussed. Analysis of predictions in a multi-model framework, and ensemble forecast initialization and generation will be another focus of the session. We are also interested in approaches addressing initialization shocks and drifts. The session welcomes work on innovative methods of quality assessment and verification of climate predictions. We also invite contributions on the use of seasonal-to-decadal predictions for risk assessment, adaptation and further applications.
The Arctic plays a vital role in the Earth's climate system through complex interactions among the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and biosphere. Its sea ice cover reflects most of the incoming solar radiation and regulates the surface energy balance. Freshwater and heat fluxes associated with river runoff, the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet as well as the formation and melting of sea ice can influence deep-water formation in the North Atlantic and hence the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Additionally, the meridional temperature gradient between low and high latitudes drives large-scale atmospheric circulation. In the meantime, Arctic permafrost and peatlands store vast amounts of carbon, and the region is home to unique and vulnerable ecosystems.
However, anthropogenic climate change is warming the Arctic nearly four times faster than the global average in recent decades. Numerous feedbacks amplify this Arctic warming, known as Arctic amplification, and modulate the response of climate. The resulting changes are affecting Arctic ecosystems and potentially also influence remote regions through atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections.
Past warm climates act as natural laboratories and provide valuable information for the understanding of key processes and feedbacks involved in Arctic changes, establishing a basis for constraining future Arctic projections. Climate models on the other hand, project that the Arctic Ocean could become nearly ice-free during summers within the next few decades. Nevertheless, substantial uncertainties remain regarding the future Arctic evolution, potential variation of its influence on the global climate system and its ecosystem responses under continued warming. The ERC synergy grant i2B (Into the Blue) aims to address these research gaps by an integrative approach, combining paleoclimate evidence, modern observations, and numerical modelling.
Building on this interdisciplinary perspective, this session brings together studies that explore Arctic processes and their wider implications across different climate states. Therefore, we welcome contributions from all career stages investigating the Arctic mechanisms, impacts and interconnections across past, present, and future warm climate states from observational, proxy, or modelling perspectives.
To address societal concerns over rising sea levels, associated extreme events, and their impacts on coastal communities, ecosystems, and the global economy, it is essential to understand the drivers and contributions to these changes. This session responds to this need by inviting research from the international sea level community that advances knowledge of past, present, and future changes in global and regional sea levels, extreme events, and coastal impacts.
The session focuses on studies that explore the physical mechanisms of sea level rise and variability, as well as the underlying drivers, across timescales ranging from paleo records to high-frequency phenomena to long-term projections, using observations and/or model simulations. Research on linkages between sea level variability, heat and freshwater content, ocean dynamics, ice-sheet and glacier mass loss, land subsidence, and terrestrial water storage is welcome. We encourage studies addressing future sea level changes, including high-end projections from rapid ice-sheet mass loss, and those assessing short-, medium-, and long-term coastal impacts and their broader implications.
Modelling past climate states, and the transient evolution of Earth’s climate, remains challenging. Time periods such as the Eocene, Miocene, Pliocene, the Last Interglacial, the Last Glacial Maximum or the Holocene span across a vast range of climate conditions. At times, these lie far outside the bounds of the historical period that most models are designed and tuned to reproduce, providing valuable additional constraints on model sensitivities. Yet our ability to predict future climate conditions and potential pathways to them is dependent on our models' abilities to simulate a realistic range of climate variability as it occurred in Earth’s history. Thus, our geologic past is ideally suited to test and evaluate models against data, so they may be better able to simulate the present and make more reliable future climate projections.
We invite contributions on palaeoclimate-specific model development, tuning, simulations, and model-data comparison studies. Simulations may be targeted to address specific questions or follow specified protocols (as in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project – PMIP or the Deep Time Model Intercomparison Project – DeepMIP). They may include or juxtapose time-slice equilibrium experiments and long transient climate simulations (such as over the last millennium). Comparisons may include different time periods (e.g., deep time, Quaternary, historical as well as future simulations), and focus on comparison of mean states, spatial gradients, circulation or modes of variability using different models, or contrast model results with reconstructions of temperature, precipitation, vegetation or circulation tracers (e.g. δ18O, δD or Pa/Th).
Presentation and discussion of results using CMIP7 models and experiments that form part of PMIP7 are encouraged. We are hoping to see descriptions and analyses of abrupt-127k experiments from the CMIP Assessment Fast Track. However, we also solicit comparisons across time periods, between models and data, and analyses of underlying mechanisms of change as well as contributions introducing novel model or experimental designs that allow to improve future projections.
Land–atmosphere interactions often play a decisive role in shaping climate extremes. As climate change continues to exacerbate the occurrence of extreme events, a key challenge is to unravel how land states regulate the occurrence of droughts, heatwaves, intense precipitation and other extreme events. This session focuses on how natural and managed land surface conditions (e.g., soil moisture, soil temperature, vegetation state, surface albedo, snow or frozen soil) interact with other components of the climate system – via water, heat and carbon exchanges – and how these interactions affect the state and evolution of the atmospheric boundary layer. Moreover, emphasis is placed on the role of these interactions in alleviating or aggravating the occurrence and impacts of extreme events. We welcome studies using field measurements, remote sensing observations, theory and modelling to analyse this interplay under past, present and/or future climates and at scales ranging from local to global but with emphasis on larger scales.
Solar forcing influences the Earth’s atmosphere through variations in solar irradiance and energetic particle precipitation, with the latter heavily modulated by the strength and configuration of the Earth’s magnetic field. Together, these processes affect atmospheric composition, Earth’s radiative balance, and atmospheric dynamics across different timescales. Numerical modelling is an essential tool for investigating these interactions and understanding how solar forcing and the geomagnetic field affect the atmosphere and climate.
This multidisciplinary session welcomes contributions using chemistry-climate models, Earth system models, and related modelling frameworks to investigate interactions among solar forcing, atmospheric composition, atmospheric dynamics, and climate under present-day, past, and future boundary conditions. Key topics include, but are not limited to, the production of odd nitrogen (NOx) and odd hydrogen (HOx), ozone changes, radiative and dynamical responses, atmosphere-ocean coupling, and Earth system feedback.
We encourage studies exploring the role of changes in the geomagnetic field, including variations in field strength as well as geomagnetic excursions and reversals, in modulating energetic particle precipitation and its atmospheric effects. Contributions spanning individual solar proton events and geomagnetic storms, solar cycle variability, grand solar minima, and geomagnetic excursions are particularly welcome. Studies addressing model development, parameterisations of solar and particle forcing, validation against observations and cosmogenic radionuclide records, model intercomparisons, and uncertainty assessment are also encouraged.
By bringing together experts in atmospheric chemistry, climate dynamics, solar-terrestrial physics, geomagnetism, and Earth system modelling, this session aims to support interdisciplinary discussion and improve our understanding of how solar and geomagnetic forcings influence Earth’s atmosphere and climate, from individual events to long-term Earth history.
This session is dedicated to the memory of Dr Eugene Rozanov (1955-2026), whose pioneering contributions to chemistry-climate modelling and solar-terrestrial interactions continue to inspire research across these disciplines.
A longstanding pursuit in climate science is to better understand Earth’s climate sensitivity, which quantifies how global mean surface temperature responds to changes in radiative forcing. Uncertainty in climate sensitivity arises due to forcing and radiative feedbacks, which are influenced by processes ranging from cloud microphysics and local meteorology to large-scale atmospheric circulation and the spatial pattern of surface temperature changes. This session solicits work across theory, observations, and modeling focusing on climate sensitivity, radiative feedbacks, and the pattern effect. It aims to serve as an exchange platform for atmospheric and oceanic science communities, showcasing the full spectrum of modeling approaches from conceptual frameworks and CMIP ensembles to km-scale simulations and novel machine learning methods.
We welcome contributions related to, but not limited to:
- Process studies of feedbacks from clouds, convection, and moist processes
- The modulation of radiative feedbacks by surface warming patterns (the "pattern effect'')
- Theoretical and conceptual models of climate sensitivity (ECS, TCR)
- Relationships between idealized climate sensitivity measures and climate change projections
- Insights into CMIP6 "hot models'' as well as novel CMIP7 simulations
- Ocean heat uptake, air-sea interactions, and ocean dynamics shaping surface temperature patterns, radiative feedbacks, and transient climate sensitivity
- Carbon-climate feedbacks, carbon-cycle interactions, and Earth system/emission response metrics (TCRE, ZEC, ESS)
The over half-century since the first deep ice core drilling at Camp Century, Greenland, has seen increased spatial coverage of polar ice cores, as well as extensive development in methods of ice sample extraction, analysis and interpretation. Growth and innovation continue as we address pressing scientific questions surrounding past climate dynamics, environmental variability and glaciological phenomena. New challenges include the retrieval of old, highly thinned ice, interpretation of altered chemical signals, and the integration of chemical proxies into earth system models. We invite contributions reporting the state-of-the-art in ice coring science, including drilling and processing, dating, analytical techniques, results and interpretations of ice core records from polar ice sheets and mid- and low-latitude glaciers, remote and autonomous methods of surveying ice stratigraphy, proxy system modelling and related earth system modelling. We encourage submissions from early career researchers from across the broad international ice core science community. Contributions from on-going projects focusing on old and/or deep ice including, Green2Ice, COLDEX and Beyond EPICA Oldest Ice are very welcome.
Why do past climatic changes produce different societal outcomes across regions and through time? This session focuses on the pathways and feedbacks linking climate change, water availability, ecosystem productivity, resource landscapes, human agency, and societal changes during the Holocene and beyond. We invite empirical, theoretical, and modelling studies that identify these processes across past and present human-environment systems. Of particular interest are studies that integrate palaeoclimate and environmental records with archaeological, historical, or societal evidence; examine thresholds, feedbacks, and nonlinear responses; or use process-based, agent-based, network, complex-systems, and data-driven approaches to connect environmental forcing with human decision-making and societal change. By bridging together climate, environmental, and social perspectives, this session aims to advance a process-based understanding of why climatic changes produce diverse societal trajectories under different environmental and social context.
Hybrid statistical–dynamical approaches have emerged as a promising avenue to improve our understanding of the climate system and to better simulate and predict its variability on multiple timescales. They combine the strengths of dynamical and statistical models, preserving the physical consistency of numerical models, while benefiting from statistical and data-driven methodologies to address key model deficiencies (e.g., low signal-to-noise ratio, biases in spatio-temporal variability, unresolved sub-grid processes, and limited resolution) and mitigate computational costs.
This session aims to bring together the latest advances in the hybrid approaches to (i) improve our understanding and ability to simulate the climate system and its variability, (ii) enhance climate predictions on multiple timescales, and (iii) translate these advances into more reliable climate services for diverse users (e.g., health, energy, agriculture, water).
With these objectives in mind, we welcome contributions on, but not limited to: subsampling and filtering strategies to enhance predictions of climate variability and extremes on different timescales (including process-constrained projections); advanced machine learning (ML) and causal discovery techniques for validation, bias-correction and downscaling of dynamical model outputs; hybrid multimodel ensemble approaches to improve climate model simulations; transfer learning to leverage climate model outputs and expand ML training datasets; physics-informed ML parametrization of sub-grid processes; hybrid surrogate models that emulate or correct specific components of dynamical models; and impact/service oriented studies that deploy hybrid pipelines to support decision-making, such as hybrid seasonal forecasts and early warning systems based on ML or causal discovery techniques.
Throughout Earth’s history, large explosive volcanic eruptions and asteroid impacts have episodically perturbed the Earth system, driving major climate disruptions with profound consequences for the biosphere. These events can modify atmospheric composition, perturb Earth’s radiative balance, trigger abrupt surface cooling, weaken the hydrological cycle, alter ocean circulation and biogeochemistry, suppress terrestrial and marine productivity, and generate cascading effects across ecosystems and food webs. Such environmental changes may further shape the evolutionary trajectories of species, including humans.
One notable example is the Chicxulub impact about 66 million years ago, which generated a global impact winter and almost certainly triggered the Cretaceous–Paleogene mass extinction. Another example is the Toba supereruption about 74,000 years ago, which likely caused substantial climatic effects and may have affected human populations. However, the magnitudes, timescales, spatial patterns, and underlying mechanisms of climate and biosphere responses to major perturbations remain incompletely understood and actively debated.
This session invites contributions that investigate how major perturbations—including volcanic eruptions, asteroid impacts, and other abrupt climatic events of varying magnitudes—affect the climate system, terrestrial and marine ecosystems, and the evolution of mammals and humans across a wide range of timescales and regions. We welcome theoretical, observational, proxy-based, and modeling studies from multidisciplinary perspectives spanning volcanology, planetary science, climate science, paleoclimatology, ecology, archaeology, and paleoanthropology.
The stability of the Southern Ocean and Antarctic ice sheet plays a critical role in global ocean circulation, climate dynamics, the marine carbon cycle and global sea level. While reconstructions of southern, high-latitude paleoclimate are still sparse, recent years have seen much progress, including a multitude of land- and sea-based coring efforts, major IODP expeditions and work on legacy sediment cores. This session aims to bring together researchers working on understanding key climate processes across all sectors of the Southern Ocean and/or Antarctic ice sheet dynamics, their interaction with each other and associated impacts on global climate. We invite contributions from a broad range of numerical modeling studies and proxy reconstructions, including surface ocean changes, deep water circulation, upper-ocean stratification, sea ice, nutrient distribution and utilization, lithogenic inputs and oceanic frontal migration as well as ice sheet retreat/advance and meltwater supply. Studies may address a wide range of timescales from tectonic and orbital to millennial. We also welcome submissions that compare recent observations with paleoclimate records or that advance methods and approaches for reconstructing polar paleoclimate.
Earth's climate is undergoing rapid change, with anthropogenically forced trends emerging across the atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere. At the same time, internally generated multidecadal variability continues to modulate regional and global climate evolution, complicating attribution and prediction. Therefore, understanding the interplay between externally forced change and natural variability is essential for improving confidence in climate projections, decadal predictions, and climate risk assessments.
Recognizing the importance of addressing these issues, the WCRP CLIVAR has initiated a research focus on “Confronting Earth System Model Trends and Multidecadal Variability with Observations (CEMT-MV)”. This session contributes to CEMT-MV, offering a venue to summarize recent work and to stimulate new research. We invite contributions on the detection and attribution of observed climate trends, separation of externally forced signals and internal climate variability, and multidecadal variability in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and coupled climate system. We are particularly interested in the evaluation of existing and new ESM simulations (e.g., CMIP7 and PMIP7) and reanalysis datasets, on the mechanisms underlying simulated and observed multidecadal variability, and on implications for decadal climate prediction. We welcome studies utilizing paleo-climate reconstructions and data-model comparisons for the last millenium and ones that introduce new methods, including AI and machine learning, for identifying trends and multidecadal variability. Implications for future climate projections, regional climate change, and climate services.
The importance of tropical Indo-Pacific modes on global climate is evident in the ongoing strong El Nino event and the Indian Ocean leading surface ocean warming. But with a short observational record that misses many different climate states, to understand how the complex tropical circulation and the resulting hydroclimate variability that is essential to billions of people will change in the future, longer records from different mean climates are required. Recent advances in Paleoceanographic and Paleoclimate studies have greatly contributed to our understanding of the link between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean and raised new questions related to hydroclimate in the region. This session invites presentations of research designed to investigate the paleoclimate changes across different time scales from the common era, Quaternary and deeper times, using a variety of physical, geochemical and biological proxies. Contributions that discuss or even model the specific local processes and regional factors in the Indo-Pacific along with their links to the global climate system are particularly welcome. Studies on the interaction between the low and high latitudes and the roles of low latitude processes, the manifestation and mechanisms of rapid climatic events and transitions, the relationship between the monsoon and ITCZ movement, and their controlling factors are encouraged.
Atmospheric teleconnections link and influence weather and climate across geographically distant regions and can have far-reaching societal impacts. Understanding how specific teleconnections can modulate regional extremes and affect societal outcomes (for example water scarcity, agricultural impacts, disease spread or increased morbidity and mortality) is critical for anticipating their consequences.
This session invites a broad range of contributions investigating atmospheric teleconnections, their influence on regional climate variability and extremes, and their societal impacts. We welcome submissions focusing on different types of atmospheric teleconnections, their influence on regional extremes and those describing their sectorial impacts including agriculture, disease propagation, human health, water and food security and socio-economic impacts. Contributions may address subseasonal, seasonal, interannual or decadal timescales and focus on past climates, historical periods or future projections.
We particularly encourage studies that connect atmospheric teleconnection changes to real-world outcomes, using a broad range of tools, from observations, reanalyses, regional and Earth System models. These may include the links with climate-sensitive diseases (dengue, chikungunya, Zika, malaria etc.) or the assessment of crop yields and other agricultural or economic impacts Finally, as teleconnections underpin much of the skill of subseasonal-to-decadal forecasts, we also welcome contributions on how this knowledge is used in prediction, early warning systems and climate services.
The climate system varies in complex ways across a wide range of timescales. Teleconnections—recurring patterns in the atmosphere and ocean that link remote regions—play a central role in shaping regional climate variability, predictability, and long-term change. Understanding and representing these links is therefore essential not only for advancing process understanding, but also for delivering robust and actionable regional climate information. However, given the large internal variability and strong external forcings involved, understanding the role of teleconnections in climate variability and change remains challenging. Both dynamical and modelling approaches, as well as statistical and other data-driven methods, have provided the foundation for many insights to date.
This session aims to bring together researchers using any combination of these approaches to study teleconnections across timescales, from synoptic to multi-decadal changes. In particular, we invite contributions that address one or more of the following topics: studies of the dynamics, variability, and predictability of teleconnections and their response to anthropogenic forcing; studies investigating and addressing model-observation discrepancies across the model hierarchy, from conventional to high-resolution and km-scale models and AI-based weather and climate models, as well as studies on regional impacts of teleconnections to assess physically consistent climate storylines and constrain projections.
We particularly encourage studies that bridge physical understanding and data-driven analysis, with an emphasis on physical interpretability and explainability. This includes theoretical advances and novel diagnostics for teleconnections, analysis of model experiments, as well as statistical and machine learning methods, including causal inference, Bayesian methods, and explainable or physics-informed deep learning.
The Mediterranean regions of the world are climate risk hotspots with concurrent climate extremes and complex compound events representing threats for their societies, economic and financial sectors, and ecosystems. Characterising past changes, current trends, emerging patterns, and future possible evolution is essential as well as understanding the processes associated with and their dynamics.
This session aims at promoting a multi-disciplinary approach to climate risks to deal with these increasingly complex challenges, design and develop effective solutions and practices, and build the path towards resilience. Studies on observed and reconstructed past changes as well as on future climate projections focused on physical, biogeochemical, and socio-economic aspects are all welcome. Analyses looking at emerging patterns and at extremes such as drought, floods, wildfire, heatwaves also inspired by recent events are highly encouraged. Similarly, socio-economic contributions on the Mediterranean regions in relation to the other areas of the world are invited to this interdisciplinary session.
The large-scale atmospheric circulation is an essential component of the climate system. Understanding the drivers, variability and the dynamical processes of this circulation is important for improving global and regional climate projections under anthropogenic climate change, and for predicting the associated impacts on extreme weather and climate events. This session encourages theoretical, modelling and observational research on the large-scale atmospheric circulation, including (but not limited to) the following topics:
-Response of the large-scale atmospheric circulation to climate change, including shifts and changes in intensity of the jet stream, Hadley and Walker cells, intertropical convergence zone, and monsoons;
-Changes in storm track intensity and structure in response to climate change and/or internal variability;
-Representation of the large-scale atmospheric circulation in climate models: inter-model variability, model biases, and methodologies for reducing uncertainty in model projections;
-Novel metrics and analysis methods for studying the large-scale atmospheric circulation;
-Interactions between the different components of the large-scale circulation, including tropical-extratropical interactions and teleconnection patterns;
-Role of moisture in the large-scale atmospheric circulation;
-Energy transport by the large-scale atmospheric circulation;
-Stratospheric-tropospheric interactions affecting the large-scale circulation.
The Arctic is undergoing rapid climate and environmental change, but understanding the processes driving this transformation requires a longer-term perspective. Marine sediment archives preserve evidence of past changes in ocean circulation, sea-ice conditions, ice-sheet dynamics, freshwater discharge, sediment transport, productivity, biogeochemical cycling and ecosystem changes across a wide range of timescales.
Shallow coring methods are suitable for obtaining detailed information on late Quaternary ice-ocean-climate variability, while ocean drilling records extends the perspective into older Cenozoic time windows when climate backgrounds were, substantially different from the present. Together, these archives provide complementary perspectives on rapid and long-term Arctic climate variability, helping to better understand global processes and constrain model predictions.
This session invites contributions based on the study of marine sediment cores and ocean drilling records and corresponding site surveys from the Arctic Ocean and surrounding continental margins. We particularly welcome studies integrating sedimentological, stratigraphic, micropaleontological, palaeogenomic, geochemical, paleomagnetic, physical-properties, and geophysical datasets to develop robust age models and paleoenvironmental reconstructions.
Topics of interest include, but are not limited to:
- Arctic Ocean circulation and variability across the Arctic gateways;
- sea-ice evolution and ocean–ice–atmosphere interactions;
- ice-sheet growth, retreat, and instability;
- sediment provenance and depositional processes;
- palaeoceanographic and palaeoclimatic reconstructions across the Cenozoic;
- past marine ecosystem and biodiversity changes, including sedimentary ancient DNA
- abrupt climate events and glacial–interglacial transitions;
- seismic stratigraphy and geophysical constraints on sedimentary archives;
- development and correlation of age models using multidisciplinary and novel approaches;
We particularly encourage contributions that bridge different spatial and temporal scales and combine multiple archives and methodologies. The session aims to provide a forum for connecting high-resolution shallow-core studies with the longer-term perspective offered by ocean drilling, thereby improving our understanding of the evolution and sensitivity of the Arctic climate system.
We invite contributions which discuss possible connections between the astronomical forcing and transitions in the dynamics of the Earth system, including global: extinctions, anoxia, global glaciations, regime changes, and more regional events. We aim at bringing together contributions which are either based on observations, on theoretical arguments, or both. We welcome submissions which explore the climate system response to orbital forcing, and that analyse the stability of these relationships under different climate regimes or across evolving climate states. This includes the Cenozoic (e.g. mid Pleistocene transition, Pliocene-Pleistocene transition, Miocene vs Pliocene), and the other periods of the Phaneorozoic and before. We also particularly welcome submissions which explore the effects of astronomical forcing on expression and amplification of millennial variability.
The African continent hosts a wide variety of climates, ranging from tropical rainforests to arid deserts, shaped by the interplay between monsoon systems, large-scale atmospheric circulation, and regional geographic features. This climatic diversity supports a wide variety of ecosystems and biodiversity, while also contributing to the continent’s exceptional diversity of environments and human societies. Moreover, Africa preserves some of the oldest and richest early hominin fossil records, alongside a detailed archaeological record, providing a vital resource for understanding human origins and how human populations have adapted to changing environmental conditions. Today, climate variability and extremes profoundly affect water availability, agriculture, ecosystems, and livelihoods across the continent. As the climate changes, improving our understanding of past and present climate variability, and of the processes driving it, is essential for understanding its impacts and building resilience to future changes.
The extent to which climate models may under- or overestimate Africa’s hydroclimate and temperature changes is currently poorly known. Instrumental records and paleoclimate reconstructions are limited to only some African regions. This hampers our understanding of climate variability across time and space. Consequently, climate models continue to exhibit significant biases in their representation of monsoon systems. The past evolution of the African climate and projections of its future evolution remain uncertain. Therefore, improving our understanding of the mechanisms driving monsoon circulations, land–atmosphere interactions, and convection processes is therefore essential to better simulate monsoon systems and climate across Africa.
We welcome contributions on all aspects of African climate: from paleoclimate reconstructions to future projections, including S2S to decadal prediction, centennial to orbital scale changes, and work emphasising physical processes and numerical modelling. We also invite studies on climate-related applications using Natural Language Processing and other ML/AI techniques, as well as presentations on operational applications and observational networks. We also welcome studies connecting African climate change and variability to human health and adaptation, food and water security, and socio-economic development.
The climate system is changing rapidly, with some regions experiencing increases in extreme events beyond what is expected from climate model simulations. To improve the accuracy of climate predictions and projections, it is necessary to (1) identify and explain what factors and processes drive observed and predicted climate changes, (2) critically assess how key processes are represented in climate models, (3) understand and explain the predicted signals, which often result from the interaction of multiple drivers, and (4) use this knowledge to calibrate and further develop predictions to provide more reliable and thus useful information to society. In combination, these research activities contribute to building the capability for an integrated attribution and prediction of climate change - a key goal of the WCRP Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change (EPESC) and the Horizon-Europe project EXPECT.
Progress in integrated attribution and prediction will benefit from combining diverse data sources, such as Earth Observations, and various climate model experiments, including those at very high resolutions. This session invites contributions on advancing integrated attribution and prediction, with a particular focus on annual to decadal timescales, which involves explaining, predicting and constraining climate changes from regional to global scales. Relevant topics include, for example, studies attributing the drivers of specific climate phenomena and extremes such as the atmospheric circulation during the boreal summer and related surface extremes, evaluating climate responses to different forcings and internal variability, correcting biased climate responses e.g. using process-based constraints, providing calibrated prediction and projections of future climate based on these constraints, and methods that exploit a variety of data in combination with novel analysis techniques including Artificial Intelligence.
Global coupled models that resolve ocean mesoscale eddies, and increasingly atmospheric storms, can now be run over multidecadal to centennial timescales. This allows us to ask whether small-scale processes change the large-scale climate: its mean state, its modes of variability and its response to forcing. This session focuses on the rectified effect of resolved small scales in the ocean, the atmosphere and at the air-sea interface on the climate system.
We welcome contributions from global km-scale models as well as from eddy-rich coupled configurations with coarser atmospheres, regional high-resolution setups and model hierarchies. Topics include the role of ocean mesoscale and submesoscale dynamics, boundary currents and fronts in climate; mesoscale air-sea coupling and its influence on storm tracks, jets, and precipitation; interannual to decadal to centennial variability including the AMOC, the Southern Ocean and tropical modes; whether resolution alters forced responses, climate sensitivity and SST trend patterns; sea ice, and ice-sheet-ocean interactions at high resolution; biogeochemistry, impacts on marine ecosystems, and km-scale mechanisms underlying the exchange of carbon at the air-sea interface and its subsequent transport in the ocean.
We also welcome studies exploring how resolved oceanic and atmospheric small-scale processes influence extremes, including heatwaves, marine heatwaves, ocean carbon uptake and acidification, heavy precipitation and compound events, particularly where these provide insight into climate variability and climate change.
We also invite studies using pacemaker or filtered-forcing experiments and resolved-versus-parameterised comparisons to isolate mechanisms or transfer insight to coarser models, as well as storyline approaches, pseudo-global-warming experiments, uniform warming experiments (e.g. +4 K frameworks), and related targeted methodologies used to understand the role of resolved small-scale processes in climate variability, extremes, and climate change, as well as work on challenges specific to long coupled simulations such as spin-up, drift, tuning, and initialisation.
Contributions from EERIE, DestinE, nextGEMS, WarmWorld, DYAMOND, DYAMOND3, MESACLIP, HighResMIP and related efforts are encouraged.
This session focuses on what we can learn from Earth's climate for other planetary climate regimes, and vice versa.
While often exhibiting vastly different climates, present-day Earth and other planets are fundamentally governed by the same physics. Despite this overlap, the two communities still lack a lively exchange. This session aims to bridge this gap by bringing together experts from both fields. We welcome research using, e.g., analytic theory, EBMs, 1-D radiative-convective equilibrium models, idealized GCMs, cloud-resolving models, 3-D GCMs, experiments, and observations. We particularly highlight the hierarchical nature of these approaches.
Submissions may address five broad subtopics:
1) Radiation:
The spectral nature of radiation and its implications for climate (e.g., ECS), greenhouse and runaway greenhouse, snowball state, and radiative feedbacks. We believe that radiation offers many opportunities for exchange, since it frequently relies on similar, or even the same, underlying modeling assumptions and parameterizations.
2) Dynamics:
Circulation regimes and transitions between them, including non-dimensional parameter analysis. Communities using idealized aquaplanets are prominent in both fields. Topics may include the effects of gravity, rotation, instellation, atmospheric mass, and characteristic timescales; superrotation; day-night contrasts; circulation cells; or ocean dynamics (e.g., Matsuno-Gill pattern / “lobster”).
3) Convection:
Convection, convective inhibition (e.g., sub-Neptunes), cloud cover, and cloud-resolving models. The latter are at the forefront of both fields, being applied to Earth and other planets.
4) Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols:
Clouds, atmospheric chemistry (e.g., ozone, CH4), and hazes, including their spatial and temporal heterogeneity and their role in exotic climates. In particular, the global distribution of clouds, spanning vast spatial and temporal scales, remains poorly understood.
5) Observables and experiments:
Observational and experimental constraints on fundamental physics, including thermal phase curves, emission and transmission spectra, rotating tank experiments, and cloud/haze analog experiments. This aims to connect observational and experimental research with theoretical approaches, particularly pushing beyond “present-day Earth-like” conditions.
Coupling between subtopics is encouraged but not required and may emerge naturally from this session.
CL5 – Tools for Climate Studies
Sub-Programme Group Scientific Officers: Elisabeth Dietze, Ola Kwiecien
Regional climate modeling has experienced tremendous growth in the last decades, encompassing a large and diverse scientific community. Regional climate models (RCMs) can be run on a wide range of scales, from hydrostatic to convection-resolving resolutions, supporting various applications. This session welcomes papers on methodological developments in regional climate modelling, performance analysis of RCMs, use of RCMs for regional processes studies, past and future climate projections as well as studies on extreme events and impact assessment. Additionally, the session encourages submissions related to the CORDEX program, including the analysis of CORDEX-CORE experiments and simulations within the framework of different CORDEX Flagship Pilot Studies. The release of the CORDEX-CMIP6 simulations marks a significant milestone for regional climate modeling within the CORDEX community. This session highlights the latest progress in generating high-resolution regional climate projections and offers early insights from the newly available datasets. We anticipate that this session will provide a platform for discussing the progress of RCM-related research and fostering future collaborations.
Land surface processes play a crucial role in shaping Earth's climate system, mediating land-atmosphere interactions, and driving terrestrial water-carbon-energy feedbacks. Land Surface Models, as core components of Earth System Models (ESMs), influence climate projections in benchmarks such as the CMIP7. However, land hydrology and its interactions with other components of the Earth system (e.g. biosphere, biogeochemical cycles) remain poorly represented in most ESMs, potentially inducing erroneous responses to anthropogenic climate forcings at global to local scales and leading to misrepresentations of droughts and floods. For instance, ESMs do not represent the observed decline of groundwater levels in water-limited regions that threatens groundwater-dependent ecosystems and exacerbates drought persistence, thereby increasing the risk of ecosystem shifts and progressive desertification. This crosscutting session provides an open, interdisciplinary platform to bridge the gap between hydrologists, hydrogeologists, ecohydrologists, and climate modelers.
We invite observational, theoretical, and numerical modeling contributions that advance the integrated representation of hydrological, hydrogeological, biophysical, and ecosystem processes within land surface models across spatial and temporal scales. Key areas of focus include the representation of the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum, plant hydraulics, vegetation stress dynamics, and biosphere-mediated moisture recycling, alongside subsurface hydrogeology such as explicit groundwater-table dynamics, lateral flow, and deep aquifer linkages. Contributions addressing human-water-ecosystem interlinkages (e.g., groundwater abstraction, irrigation, land-use change), high-resolution ESM configurations, advanced observational networks, and emerging AI/machine learning techniques are also strongly encouraged.
The overarching aim of this session is to overcome historical disciplinary silos and establish a shared agenda across modeling communities. By aligning interdisciplinary priorities, addressing cross-scale parameterization challenges, and improving the evaluation of land-based mitigation and adaptation strategies, this session seeks to define future needs and collaborative opportunities for the next ESM generation.
The analysis of datasets that represent comprehensive Earth-system processes can be greatly facilitated with the aid of existing tools and tutorials that have been developed within the global climate community. This session aims to bring together the developers and users of these resources to exchange knowledge, share best practices, and address scientific and technical challenges related to climate and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) data analysis. We welcome contributions presenting tools, workflows, tutorials, and practical approaches that support access, processing, analysis, visualization, and interpretation of climate and CMIP data.
This session is prepared together with the members of the CMIP Rapid Evaluation Framework (REF) and members of the Fresh Eyes on CMIP project on compiling existing tools and tutorials. An overview of currently collected tutorials and tools is available through the WCRP CMIP website:
https://wcrp-cmip.org/tutorials/
https://wcrp-cmip.org/tools/.
As data-driven models increasingly rival or complement physics-based systems, a central question remains open: can AI reliably forecast the events that matter the most, the extremes that drive real-world impacts, and not just the average state of the atmosphere? This session brings together the latest advances in machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) for forecasting weather, projecting climate, and simulating extreme events.
We invite contributions spanning the full range of timescales and methods, including but not limited to:
*data-driven and foundation weather models for short- and medium-range forecasting;
*generative and probabilistic approaches (e.g. diffusion models) for forecasting, downscaling, and uncertainty quantification;
*ML for sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction and longer-term climate projections;
*hybrid AI-physics approaches that embed physical constraints into data-driven models or improve the representation of climate variables in numerical models and datasets;
*detection, attribution, and anticipation of extreme events such as hurricanes, floods, heatwaves, droughts, and compound extremes.
We particularly encourage submissions that go beyond forecast skill to address impacts on infrastructure, ecosystems, health, or energy systems, and that engage with questions of trust, explainability, and generalization to unseen or out-of-distribution extremes.
By bringing together experts from AI, data science, meteorology, climate science, and impact modelling, this session aims to foster interdisciplinary collaboration and push the boundaries of AI-driven understanding and prediction of extreme weather and climate events. We warmly welcome submissions from early-career scientists, established researchers, and industry professionals alike.
Stable, radiogenic, and radioactive isotopes are fundamental tools for understanding Earth’s climate system. Isotopic measurements trace the chemical reactions, mass transfers, and biogeochemical cycles that link climate to other components of the Earth system, and they underpin many past climate reconstructions. Analytical advances, such as triple oxygen isotopes and compound-specific isotope analysis, are opening new avenues for scientific study, while established isotopic methods are steadily being applied to new archives and environmental settings. This session welcomes researchers developing and applying isotopic tools for past and present climate studies. We encourage contributions presenting new analytical methods, calibration and proxy advances, applications to new or underused archives, and modern studies that improve the interpretation of isotopic records. We also welcome studies that integrate isotopic data with geochemical, geomorphic, or climatological evidence, including multi-proxy archive studies, or with modelling approaches such as source mixing and isotope-enabled climate models.
High-resolution, non-destructive imaging techniques—including 3D micro-CT, micro-XRF core scanning, hyperspectral imagery, and multi-sensor optical logging—have revolutionized paleoclimate and paleoenvironmental research across sedimentary, speleothem, ice core, tree-ring, and biological archives. However, community-wide data synthesis remains hindered by non-standardized calibration protocols, disparate operating procedures, and unaligned data formats.
Organized in conjunction with the PAGES PaleoIMAGING Working Group, this session brings together empirical researchers, laboratory specialists, and data managers to showcase innovative scientific applications, proxy reconstructions, and community-wide harmonization.
We invite contributions covering:
1. Applied paleo-environmental, paleoclimate, and sedimentological studies using high-resolution core imaging modalities.
2. Novel imaging applications, sensor developments, and analytical processing methods.
3. Interlaboratory comparisons, standard reference materials, and physical calibration protocols.
4. Best practices, standard operating procedures (SOPs), and image processing/segmentation pipelines.
5. Open-access repositories, standardised data formats, and multi-modal dataset integration.
The Quaternary Period (the last 2.6 million years) is characterized by frequent and abrupt climate swings and rapid environmental change. Studying these changes requires accurate, precise dating methods that can be applied effectively to environmental archives. Different methods or a combination of various dating techniques can be used depending on the archive, time range, and research question. Varve counting and dendrochronology allow for the construction of high-resolution chronologies. In contrast, radiometric methods (radiocarbon, cosmogenic in-situ, U-Th, and even Pb-210 for the Anthropocene), luminescence dating, and electron spin resonance dating provide independent anchors for chronologies that span longer timescales. We particularly welcome contributions that aim to (1) reduce, quantify, and express dating uncertainties in any dating method, including high-resolution radiocarbon approaches; (2) use established geochronological methods to answer new questions; (3) use new methods including recognizing and critically examine their limitations to address longstanding issues, or; (4) combine different chronometric techniques for improved results, including the analysis of chronological datasets with novel methods, e.g., Bayesian age-depth modeling; (5) we also welcome contributions integrating multiple chronological and provenance tools including U-Pb geochronology and apatite fission track thermochronology to constrain sediment provenance and source to sink dynamics. Applications may aim to understand long-term landscape evolution, quantify rates of geomorphological processes, or provide chronologies for records of climate change and anthropogenic effects on Earth's system.
Extreme events are difficult to understand because observations are sparse in both space and time, especially for the less frequent but most impactful and severe events. Inference on environmental extremes is becoming increasingly challenging as their behavior can change over time, they can occur across large spatial regions, and they can interact with one another. Extreme Value Theory (EVT) provides a strong theoretical framework for studying these events, but challenges remain in linking methodological advances with environmental applications, prediction, and risk assessment.
We welcome contributions spanning theory, methodology, and applications, including but not limited to:
Advancing EVT methods
• Extreme quantile regression and estimation, conformal prediction, and non-stationary tail models
• EVT-constrained machine learning, uncertainty quantification, extrapolation, and inference under limited extreme event observations
• Methods to evaluate the appropriateness of EVT estimates, impacts of violations of EVT assumptions, and alternative extreme value analysis approaches
Applying EVT to environmental extremes
• Applications to hydrology, climate, weather, coastal hazards, earthquakes, landslides, wildfires, and infrastructure related risk
• Compound, connected, and cascading extremes, including drought-flood sequences, heatwave clusters, extreme precipitation, storm surges, and other interacting hazards
• Novel and under explored applications of EVT to environmental processes and hazards, including snowmelt, air turbulence, environmental epidemiology, and other emerging areas
EVT for prediction, risk assessment, and decision support
• Synthetic extreme event generation and scenario design for stress testing
• Tail focused calibration, validation, and verification, including extremal scoring rules, return level skill, and reliability in the tails
• Quantification and communication of uncertainty relevant to hazards, exposure, impacts, and risk
• Approaches that translate tail behavior and return level information into decision relevant metrics and services
We encourage contributions that bridge methodological EVT developments with real world environmental applications. Contributions may include new theoretical or methodological developments, open datasets and tools, model evaluation frameworks, and real world case studies.
In recent years, technologies based on Artificial Intelligence (AI), such as image processing, smart sensors, and intelligent inversion, have garnered significant attention from researchers in the geosciences community. These technologies offer the promise of transitioning geosciences from qualitative to quantitative analysis, unlocking new insights and capabilities previously thought unattainable.
One of the key reasons for the growing popularity of AI in geosciences is its unparalleled ability to efficiently analyze vast datasets within remarkably short timeframes. This capability empowers scientists and researchers to tackle some of the most intricate and challenging issues in fields like Geophysics, Seismology, Hydrology, Planetary Science, Remote Sensing, and Disaster Risk Reduction.
As we stand on the cusp of a new era in geosciences, the integration of artificial intelligence promises to deliver more accurate estimations, efficient predictions, and innovative solutions. By leveraging algorithms and machine learning, AI empowers geoscientists to uncover intricate patterns and relationships within complex data sources, ultimately advancing our understanding of the Earth's dynamic systems. In essence, artificial intelligence has become an indispensable tool in the pursuit of quantitative precision and deeper insights in the fascinating world of geosciences.
For this reason, aim of this session is to explore new advances and approaches of AI in Geosciences.
This session invites contributions on the latest developments and results in lidar remote sensing of the atmosphere, covering • new lidar techniques as well as applications of lidar data for model verification and assimilation, • ground-based, airborne, and space-borne lidar systems, • unique research systems as well as networks of instruments, • lidar observations of aerosols and clouds, thermodynamic parameters and wind, and trace-gases. Atmospheric lidar technologies have shown significant progress in recent years. While, some years ago, there were only a few research systems, mostly quite complex and difficult to operate on a longer-term basis because a team of experts was continuously required for their operation, advancements in laser transmitter and receiver technologies have resulted in much more rugged systems nowadays, many of which are already operated routinely in networks and several even being fully automated and commercially available. Consequently, also more and more data sets with very high resolution in range and time are becoming available for atmospheric science, which makes it attractive to consider lidar data not only for case studies but also for extended model comparison statistics and data assimilation. Here, ceilometers provide not only information on the cloud bottom height but also profiles of aerosol and cloud backscatter signals. Scanning Doppler lidars extend the data to horizontal and vertical wind profiles. Raman lidars and high-spectral resolution lidars provide more details than ceilometers and measure particle extinction and backscatter coefficients at multiple wavelengths. Other Raman lidars measure water vapor mixing ratio and temperature profiles. Differential absorption lidars give profiles of absolute humidity or other trace gases (like ozone, NOx, SO2, CO2, methane etc.). Depolarization lidars provide information on the shapes of aerosol and cloud particles. In addition to instruments on the ground, lidars are operated from airborne platforms in different altitudes. Even the first space-borne missions are now in orbit while more are currently in preparation. All these aspects of lidar remote sensing in the atmosphere will be part of this session.
Thermal remote sensing is an increasingly established technique employing passive sensors to deriveEarth’s surface properties from the radiation emitted in the Thermal Infrared (TIR) domain. Its main focus is the thermal state of an object or surface, together with the associated surface temperature and emissivity. These properties are relevant across geological, environmental, climatic, agricultural, biological, and engineering applications.
Recent technological advances have driven the development of TIR remote sensing: satellite sensors and data infrastructure systems can now acquire and manage large volumes of high-fidelity TIR data at a wide range of spatial and temporal resolutions. Besides airborne and ground-based systems, Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) are increasingly used as versatile platforms that combine high spatial resolution with flexible temporal revisit. Together with a growing catalogue of current and upcoming missions, this makes it a timely moment to take stock of where the field stands.
This session addresses established and emerging research directions in TIR remote sensing and discusses the community's upcoming challenges. We welcome contributions on new frontiers, case studies, and data-integration analysis related to:
• Geosciences: volcanoes, hydrothermal systems, geothermal potential, mineral exploration, rare earths, cryosphere.
• Climate, Urban Systems, and Ecosystems: urban heat islands, global warming impacts, ecosystem stress, forest health, fire risk assessment, water management.
• Agriculture and Precision Farming: crop stress monitoring, irrigation management, soil analysis and pest/disease monitoring.
• Technological and Methodological Innovations: new sensors for satellite, airborne, UAS and in-situ platforms, multi-platform and/or multi-sensor data integration, Cal/Val activities.
• Data Processing and Infrastructure: approaches for managing and processing large TIR datasets, data fusion techniques, advanced algorithms for atmospheric correction and temperature and emissivity separation.
Multi-disciplinary studies and contributions from Early Career Scientists are especially welcome.
Invited Speaker: Sabine Chabrillat, Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences (GFZ).
Icehouse conditions have characterized the evolution of Earth's surface over multiple timescales. Their recurrence and intensity are paced by the interplay among surface and deep-seated processes, as well as astronomical forcing. Under colder climate conditions, landscapes are modified by the physical action of ice masses, including polar ice sheets, high-elevation and high-latitude ice caps, and valley glaciers. Each stage of landscape evolution can be traced through erosion of the substrate beneath and around the ice bodies, and through the subsequent transport and deposition of eroded material. Tracing these sediment-routing pathways is a key tool for understanding past and present ice dynamics.
Through numerical modeling of sediment and provenance proxies, it is possible to investigate how glacial landscapes are eroded and evolve in response to climate variability and tectonics through time.
We especially welcome contributions focusing on, but not limited to, the Cenozoic, encompassing the development of high-latitude polar environments and the recurrent advances and retreats of mountain glaciers during the Quaternary. We encourage studies employing approaches that bridge sedimentology, geomorphology, and related disciplines, including cosmogenic nuclides, thermochronology, detrital geochronology, geochemical provenance tracer, and petrographic and mineralogical characterization of grains. Contributions integrating these techniques with remote sensing, GIS-based analyses, and numerical modeling are encouraged.
Long spin-up times remain a major computational bottleneck in ocean and climate modelling, limiting our ability to investigate past climate states, understand model biases, and quantify parameter uncertainty. Developing more efficient spin-up methods can help overcome these limitations and support the use of past climate information to strengthen confidence in future climate projections.
This session will bring together results from the Past-to-Future Global Ocean Circulation Model Spin-Up Competition. The competition challenges participants to bring a global ocean model to equilibrium using as few computational resources as possible. Participants access the model as a time-forward black box, advancing the ocean state through a prescribed routine without modifying the underlying model or its physical configuration. This common framework enables a systematic comparison of alternative approaches.
The session will focus on three core aspects:
• presenting the methods developed by participating teams and comparing their performance against the common benchmark;
• discussing computational efficiency, convergence, and reproducibility, including the costs associated with training data where machine learning methods are used;
• exploring lessons learned and the potential for applying successful approaches more broadly in ocean and climate modelling.
We welcome competition participants and researchers interested in ocean and climate modelling, numerical analysis, scientific computing, and machine learning. The goal is to identify promising approaches, discuss remaining challenges, and encourage future collaborations on efficient model initialisation. Registration for the competition closes on 1 November 2026, with final results due on 1 March 2027.
Time series are a common type of data generated by observational and modelling efforts across Earth, environmental and space sciences. Long-term observations are particularly important for understanding gradual changes and assessing risks, yet are often difficult to sustain and fund. Their characteristics can vary substantially, from short to long records, linear to nonlinear dynamics, univariate to multivariate data, and single- to multi-scale variability. These differences call for both tailored methodologies and general approaches.
A key challenge is distinguishing random fluctuations from long-term changes in order to better understand processes within and across Earth system components. This requires knowledge of temporal variability and, often, sufficiently long observations. For example, reliable sea-level trends may require several decades of continuous measurements because of decadal variability. Likewise, the stochastic variability of geophysical time series can exhibit power-law scaling, requiring long records for robust statistical assessment.
Time series analysis encompasses a broad range of tasks, including:
- characterizing nonlinear variability in the time and/or frequency domain;
- quantifying complexity, predictability and scaling properties;
- identifying statistical interdependencies within and between time series;
- distinguishing co-variability from causal relationships;
- reducing dimensionality and identifying meaningful modes of variability; and
- developing stochastic and deterministic statistical or dynamical models.
This session invites contributions on the development and application of modern methods for analysing observational and model time series across the EGU community, including geophysical, geodynamic, oceanographic, geodetic and climate observations from terrestrial observatories and remote sensing. Contributions addressing advances in sensors, instrumentation, monitoring, analysis and interpretation, as well as comparisons of different approaches, are welcome. Studies using novel methods, including AI, for the analysis of long time series are particularly encouraged. We aim to foster interdisciplinary exchange and cross-fertilization between different EGU divisions.
CL6 – Short Courses
Sub-Programme Group Scientific Officer: Kerstin Treydte
Forecasting systems are indispensable for making informed decisions under uncertainty. Therefore, there is a need for an objective and well-understood framework for ``forecast verification'', i.e., qualitative and quantitative assessment of forecast performance.
Statistical methods compare historical forecasts with corresponding verifications, indicating whether the forecasting system behaved significantly differently (in a statistical sense) from what was expected. This requires that the forecasts have a well--defined statistical interpretation; whether a forecast represents a mean or a quantile makes a difference with regards to how we evaluate that forecast.
This short course will introduce the participants to the fundamentals of statistical forecast verification. Some necessary statistical theory will be presented, along with the concept of risk measures, which allows to provide forecasts with a precise statistical meaning. We furthermore illustrate the relation to scoring and identification functions, and discuss practical challenges with evaluating forecasts as spatial fields (as opposed to point by point). Specifically, the course will cover the following topics (more or less in that order)
(1) Forecast types, risk measures, scoring functions, and identification functions (20min)
(2) Tests and p-values (10min)
(3) How to evaluate forecasts for specific risk measures
(with hands-on part, 30min)
(3) How to evaluate forecasts of spatial fields
(with hands-on part, 30min)
(4) Open challenges (15min)
The target audience is researchers (from both academic institutions and operational centers) who are either new to forecast verification or have practical experience but want to learn more about the theory. The discussed methods are applicable not only in atmospheric forecasts but in many other fields such as parameter estimation, data assimilation, model evaluation, and machine learning.
Climate change is a major concern for public health. This was exemplified by the estimation of Vicedo et al. (2021) that 37% of heat-related deaths were attributable to climate change between 1991-2018, when considering data from 43 countries. Two key frontiers in health impact attribution are now to move from trend attribution to event attribution, and from considering heat-related mortality to a broader set of health outcomes, such as cause-specific hospital admissions or the spread of infectious diseases.
This short course will provide an overview of 3 core aspects:
• the caveats associated with moving from a hazard to a health-impact focused perspective within an attribution framework
• discuss examples of health impact assessments from heat-related mortality and infectious diseases from an epidemiological perspective
• demonstrate how to combine epidemiological modelling with attribution
We welcome all those interested in the intersection of climate and health. The content will be targeted towards an audience with experience or interest in (extreme) event attribution of hazards, and/or those with experience in epidemiology or health impacts modelling. The goal of this course is to provide participants with an understanding of some of the key challenges from both the climate and health perspectives, as well as to facilitate future collaborations between those in both the climate and health fields by providing teaching material and interactive tutorials. This short course is delivered as part of the project TACTIC, and gratefully acknowledges funding provided by the Wellcome Trust.