UC2

Climate modelling, climate prediction and scenarios from seasons to century
Convener: C. Appenzeller  | Co-Conveners: C. Goodess , R. Benestad 
Oral Programme
 / Mon, 13 Sep, 16:30–18:30  / Room AudiMax (F30)
 / Wed, 15 Sep, 08:30–13:00  / Room AudiMax (F30)
 / Thu, 16 Sep, 14:00–19:00  / Room AudiMax (F30)
Poster Programme
 / Attendance Tue, 14 Sep, 18:30–19:30  / Poster Area P3
The climate is variable on all timescales. A key challenge is the prediction of changes in climate mean, variability and extremes for months, seasons, decades and the century ahead. On the monthly and seasonal time scale operational probabilistic predictions, mostly based on dynamical models, are implemented in a number of centres and practical applications are developing. On decadal to century time scales, recent model developments within projects like ENSEMBLES, CORDEX and the IPCC AR5 context provide the base to develop refined regional and global climate change projections. Aside from the scientific hurdles, a key challenge remains in the tailoring of such climate predictions and scenarios for end user needs and climate change impacts assessments.

The session invites papers related to:
a) Monthly, seasonal to decadal climate forecasts (predictability, multi-models, verification, calibration, downscaling, extremes. statistically based schemes, tailoring to end user needs, ..).
b) Regional and global climate change scenarios (global vs. regional models, IPCC AR5 developments, multi-model approaches (e.g. ENSEMBLES, CORDEX, ..), post-processing, bias correction, statistical downscaling, quantifying model uncertainties quantifying changes in extremes, tailoring to end user needs, ..).
c) Seamless predictions: approaches to bridging the gap between weather and climate forecasts.
d) Tailoring climate forecasts and longer-term projections for impacts assessments and use by societal sectors.