Oral Programme UC2
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UC2 Climate modelling, climate prediction and scenarios from seasons to century |
| Convener: Christof Appenzeller | Co-Conveners: Clare Goodess , Rasmus Benestad |
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Oral Programme
/ Mon, 13 Sep, 16:30–18:30
/ Room AudiMax (F30)
/ Wed, 15 Sep, 08:30–13:00 / Room AudiMax (F30) / Thu, 16 Sep, 14:00–19:00 / Room AudiMax (F30)
Poster Programme
/ Attendance Tue, 14 Sep, 18:30–19:30
/ Poster Area P3
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Monday, 13 September 2010 Room AudiMax (F30) |
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Monthly to Seasonal Prediction
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| 16:30–16:45 |
EMS2010-289
Autumn-time response of the ocean-atmospheric system to interannual changes in Arctic sea-ice extent Y. J. Orsolini, R. Senan, R. E. Benestad, A. Melsom, and M. A. Balmaseda |
| 16:45–17:00 |
EMS2010-746
ENSO-Driven Predictability of Tropical Dry Autumns Using the Seasonal ENSEMBLES Multimodel R. Manzanas, J.M. Gutiérrez, A.S. Cofiño, and M.D. Frías |
| 17:00–17:15 |
EMS2010-79
Seasonal potential predictability of the Arctic sea ice in the ENSEMBLES and CMIP3 simulations M. Chevallier and D. Salas-Melia |
| 17:15–17:30 |
EMS2010-373
Evolution of the Canadian regional ensemble prediction system R. Frenette, M. Charron, X. Li, N. Gagnon, C. Lavaysse, S. Belair, M. Carrera, P. Yau, and G. Candille |
| 17:30–17:45 |
EMS2010-349
Analysis of MJO forecast errors in a seamless system (withdrawn) P. Xavier and A. Shelly |
| 17:45–18:00 |
EMS2010-536
Assessing two operational systems for monthly and seasonal climatic anomalies forecast in Italy. M. Pasqui, V. Pavan, S. Quaresima, J. Primicerio, C. Cacciamani, B. Gozzini, and L. Perini |
| 18:00–18:15 |
EMS2010-397
Dynamic-enforced Statistical Downscaling of Global Seasonal Prediction of Precipitation for Regional Hydrological Applications Y. Liu, D. Rostkier-Edelstein, A. Givati, W. Wu, G. Descombes, M. Ge, T. Warner, and S. Swerdlin |
| 18:15–18:30 |
EMS2010-326
Can monthly to seasonal precipitation forecasts be useful for hydro-power production planning in french Guyana ? L. Dubus, J. Najac, and J. Dessagne |
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Wednesday, 15 September 2010 Room AudiMax (F30) |
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Climate Change Impacts
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| 08:30–08:45 |
EMS2010-565
Consistent geographical patterns of changes in high-impact European heatwaves E.M. Fischer and C. Schär |
| 08:45–09:00 |
EMS2010-52
Using bias-adjustment to improve the use of high-resolution climate model output S. Corney, G. Holz, J. Bennett, M. Grose, C.J. White, S. Gaynor, and N.L. Bindoff |
| 09:00–09:15 |
EMS2010-146
Fire Weather Index : from high resolution climatology to Climate change impact study E. Cloppet and M. Regimbeau |
| 09:15–09:30 |
EMS2010-681
Water deficit risk in Central Europe in the middle of the 21st century J. Wibig |
| 09:30–09:45 |
EMS2010-722
Simulation of Annual Snowfall over Colorado using a High Resolution Mesoscale Model and some Impacts of Climate Change using the Pseudo Climate Simulation Method R. Rasmussen and V. Grubisic |
| 09:45–10:00 |
EMS2010-199
Seasonal changes in the regional hydrological cycle and resulting potential vegetation changes in an aggressive mitigation scenario compared to SRES A1B H. Huebener, I. Höschel, J. Körber, M. Sanderson, T.C. Johns, J.-F. Royer, D. Salas y Melia, E. Roeckner, M. Giorgetta, and E. Manzini |
| 10:00–10:15 |
EMS2010-602
Agricultural pests under future climate conditions: downscaling of regional climate scenarios with a stochastic weather generator M. Hirschi, S. Stöckli, M. Dubrovsky, C. Spirig, M. W. Rotach, P. Calanca, and J. Samietz |
| 10:15–10:30 |
EMS2010-432
Assessment of Future Storm Losses in Germany: Probabilistic Extension of the Statistical-Dynamical Downscaling Approach K. Born, M.K. Karremann, P. Ludwig, and J. Pinto |
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Coffee Break
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Climate Scenarios and Long-Term Changes
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| 11:00–11:15 |
EMS2010-642
Aerosol emissions and earth radiation balance in transient GCM simulations D. Folini and M. Wild |
| 11:15–11:30 |
EMS2010-133
The impact of doubled CO2 on winter ENSO teleconnections I. Herceg Bulić, Č. Branković, and F. Kucharski |
| 11:30–11:45 |
EMS2010-269
Climate Predictability and Long Term Memory X. Zhu, R. Blender, K. Fraedrich, and Z. Liu |
| 11:45–12:00 |
EMS2010-307
The West African Monsoon in the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM S. Kothe and B. Ahrens |
| 12:00–12:15 |
EMS2010-327
Evaluation of the Indian monsoon generated by four regional climate models during the period 1981-2000 P. Lucas-Picher, J. Christensen, P. Kumar, F. Saeed, S. Asharaf, A. Wiltshire, B. Ahrens, and S. Hagemann |
| 12:15–12:30 |
EMS2010-249
Regional climate projections of trends and variability in the Indian summer monsoon A. Dobler and B. Ahrens |
| 12:30–12:45 |
EMS2010-428
The effects of climate change on the number of cold spells in the Alps C. Cassardo, M. Galli, S. M. Oh, and S. K. Park |
| 12:45–13:00 |
EMS2010-99
Elevation Gradients of 21st Century European Climate Change S. Kotlarski, D. Lüthi, P. Pall, and C. Schär |
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Thursday, 16 September 2010 Room AudiMax (F30) |
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| 14:00–14:30 |
EMS2010-246
Risks of model weighting in multi-model climate projections - lessons learnt from seasonal forecasting (solicited) A.P. Weigel, R. Knutti, M.A. Liniger, and C. Appenzeller |
| 14:30–14:45 |
EMS2010-786
High Resolution Regional Climate Modelling - Lessons Learned from EC FP6 Project CECILIA T. Halenka, M. Belda, and J. Miksovsky |
| 14:45–15:00 |
EMS2010-607
Evaluation of the regional climate model REMO over several CORDEX domains throughout the globe A. Elizalde, A. Haensler, P. Kumar, R. Podzun, D. Rechid, A. Remedio, F. Saeed, K. Sieck, C. Teichmann, and C. Wilhelm and the REMO |
| 15:00–15:15 |
EMS2010-209
Regional Climate Simulation (1989-2009) with WRF in the CORDEX-Europe Domain J. Chu, K Warrach-Sagi, V Wulfmeyer, T Schwitalla, and H Bauer |
| 15:15–15:30 |
EMS2010-299
Dynamical downscaling of the ERA-40 reanalysis and ARPEGE GCM with the WRF regional climate model in complex terrain in Norway - comparison with ENSEMBLES U. Heikkilä, A. D. Sandvik, and A. Sorteberg |
| 15:30–15:45 |
EMS2010-558
Calculation of Probabilistic Climate Change Scenarios for Switzerland A. M. Fischer, A. P. Weigel, M. A. Liniger, C. Buser, and C. Appenzeller |
| 15:45–16:00 |
EMS2010-60
The future climate characteristics of the Carpathian Basin based on a regional climate model mini-ensemble G. Szépszó, J. Bartholy, G. Csima, A. Horányi, A. Hunyady, I. Krüzselyi, I. Pieczka, R. Pongrácz, P. Szabó, and Cs. Torma |
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Poster Session & Coffee Break
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| 17:00–17:15 |
EMS2010-63
Downscaling Precipitation Extremes: Correction of Analog Models through PDF Predictions R.E. Benestad |
| 17:15–17:30 |
EMS2010-576
Statistical downscaling assessments of temperature and precipitation extremes in the Mediterranean area E. Hertig, J. Jacobeit, and S. Fernandez-Montes |
| 17:30–17:45 |
EMS2010-447
Forcing the statistical regionalization method WETTREG with large scale models of different resolution: A sensitivity study A. Spekat, S. Baumgart, F. Kreienkamp, and W. Enke |
| 17:45–18:00 |
EMS2010-13
Very high resolution climate modelling of extremes E. Kendon and K. Williams |
| 18:00–18:15 |
EMS2010-259
Downscaling of extreme precipitation events under climate change conditions M. Hofstätter, C. Matulla, and J. Wang |
| 18:15–18:30 |
EMS2010-2
The effect of large-scale nudging on climate indices in the Regional Climate Model CCLM M. Demuzere, I. Anders, E. Jaeger, E. Brisson, and N.P.M. van Lipzig |
| 18:30–18:45 |
EMS2010-17
Strengthening regional climate change projections of rainfall changes through fine-scale dynamical downscaling modelling and analyses of climate drivers at all scales M.R. Grose, S Corney, J Bennett, C.J. White, G.K. Holz, and N.L. Bindoff |
| 18:45–19:00 |
EMS2010-735
Validation of autocorrelations and higher-order statistical moments of surface temperature simulated by statistical downscaling and regional climate models on a dense grid over central Europe R. Huth, J. Mikšovský, J.C. Moliba, P. Štěpánek, and Z. Chládová |