This session will focus on probabilistic and ensemble weather forecasting at medium range and beyond. The session invites contributions on a wide range of topics and application areas including:

• Advantages and limitations of probabilistic, ensemble-based approach to medium- and long-range numerical weather prediction
• Methodologies to simulate initial and model uncertainties in ensemble prediction systems
• Influence of land-surface processes, the stratosphere, coupled ocean and sea-ice models on medium- and long-range forecasting
• Applications of medium- and long-range probabilistic forecasts in the sectors of energy, health, transport, agriculture, insurance, finance, etc.
• Using information and feedback from application models to optimize probabilistic weather forecast systems
• Diagnostics and verification of probabilistic forecast systems