Oral NWP4

NWP4

Probabilistic and ensemble forecasting at short and and medium-range
Conveners: Andrea Montani , Jan Barkmeijer , Fernando Prates 
Oral
 / Fri, 13 Sep, 08:30–17:15  / Room 102
Poster
 / Attendance Fri, 13 Sep, 10:30–11:30  / Display Wed, 11 Sep, 09:00–Fri, 13 Sep, 14:00  / Poster Area 1

Friday, 13 September 2013
Room 102
Chairperson: Jan Barkmeijer
08:30–09:00
EMS2013-258
Ensemble prediction of intense summer rainfall in the UK (solicited)
B.W. Golding
09:00–09:15
EMS2013-621
Applying renewable energy power data for improved weather forecasts
K. Lundgren, S. Declair, R. Müller, A. Schomburg, and R. Potthast
09:15–09:30
EMS2013-283 | presentation
Representation of initial conditions in the MOGREPS-UK ensemble
C. Johnson, R. Swinbank, and W. J. Tennant
09:30–09:45
EMS2013-9 | presentation
A Detailed and a Coarse Scheme for Convective Data Assimilation of Radar Observations using a Local Ensemble Kalman Filter
H. Lange and G. C. Craig
09:45–10:00
EMS2013-133 | presentation
Structure and impact of ensemble perturbations provided by convective-scale ensemble data assimilation
F. Harnisch and C. Keil
10:00–10:15
EMS2013-176 | presentation
High resolution ensemble analysis: linking correlations and spread to physical processes.
S. Dey, R. Plant, S. Migliorini, and N. Roberts
10:15–10:30
EMS2013-311
Probability forecasts from an adaptive spatial method to deal with under-sampling in a convection-permitting NWP ensemble
N. Roberts
Coffee Break & Poster Sessions
11:30–12:00
EMS2013-388 | presentation
Local bivariate calibration of ensemble wind forecasts at Frankfurt/Main Airport (solicited)
N. Schuhen, I. Alberts, and M. Buchhold
12:00–12:15
EMS2013-438
Ensemble postprocessing for probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts
S. Bentzien and P. Friederichs
12:15–12:30
EMS2013-183
A comparison of ensemble post-processing methods for extreme events
R.M. Williams, C.A.T. Ferro, and F. Kwasniok
12:30–12:45
EMS2013-459 | presentation
An ensemble prediction system for polar lows over the Norwegian and Barents Sea
H. Mc Innes, J. Kristiansen, G. Noer, and H. Luijting
12:45–13:00
EMS2013-372 | presentation
The RainCloud project: providing finescale probabilistic forecasts of precipitation for avalanche warning using Cloud Computing
F. Schueller, G. Mayr, S. Ostermann, M. Janetschek, and R. Prodan
Lunch Break
14:00–14:30
EMS2013-487
Systematic errors in medium-range forecasts of tropopause structure (solicited)
S. L. Gray, C. M. Dunning, J. Methven, G. Masato, and J. M. Chagnon
14:30–14:45
EMS2013-281
An analysis of an intense precipitation event over West Africa using TIGGE data
S. B. Hopsch, J. H. Keller, and S. C. Jones
14:45–15:00
EMS2013-381
Calibration of ensemble wind forecasts for wind energy applications
C. Junk, L. von Bremen, D. Heinemann, and S. Spaeth
15:00–15:15
EMS2013-165
Ensemble post-processing methods for short-range ensemble forecasts.
Dr. Descamps
15:15–15:30
EMS2013-166 | presentation
Ensemble forecasting for Sochi-2014 Olympics: the COSMO-S14-EPS system from COSMO
A. Montani, C. Marsigli, and T. Paccagnella
15:30–15:45
EMS2013-723
The predictability of mesoscale features in MOGREPS ensemble forecasts
T. H. A. Frame, J. Methven, and N. M. Roberts
15:45–16:00
EMS2013-769
Forecast System Improvement with Rapid Input of Surface Observations
J. Anderson and F. Rey Benadero
16:00–16:15
EMS2013-470
High resolution ensemble forecasting using CAPE singular vectors
R.J.J. Stappers and J. Barkmeijer
16:15–16:30
EMS2013-804 | presentation
Production of a multi-model, convective-scale superensemble over western Europe as part of the SESAR project
J. Beck, F. Bouttier, O. Nuissier, and L. Raynaud
16:30–17:15
Announcement of poster award recipient, followed by beer tasting in the foyer