ECAM4

Verification: Measuring the Effectiveness of Forecasts and Warnings
Conveners: P. Nurmi , M. Göber 
Oral
 / Tue, 10 Sep, 12:15–18:30  / Room G10
Poster
 / Attendance Tue, 10 Sep, 10:30–11:30  / Display Mon, 09 Sep, 09:00–Tue, 10 Sep, 19:00  / Poster Area 1

The session builds on the strengths of the 'traditional' ECAM Verification sessions, considering in particular how the value of forecasts and warnings can be quantified in terms of socio-economic benefits and in aiding civil protection activities. It will also aim to explore how we can best verify impact-based forecasts, in which criteria for success may lack the objectivity of conventional forecasts and warnings.

The convenors invite presentations on all aspects of verification and especially methodological approaches. Authors are requested to consider their verification applications in a wider context in helping reduce the societal risks associated with high impact weather. All forecast time ranges (from nowcasting to seasonal and climate projections) may be covered.

Themes to be addressed include:
• verification of warnings and impacts
• verification of critical events in the energy and transport sectors
• verification of probabilistic information in final forecasts of high impact weather
• multi-disciplinary (e.g. hydrological) forecast verification
• communication of verification information to end users and decision-makers
• estimation of uncertainty in observations and verification results