Orals NWP4
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NWP4 Probabilistic and ensemble forecasting at short and medium-range |
| Convener: Andrea Montani | Co-Conveners: Jan Barkmeijer , Fernando Prates |
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Tuesday, 7 October 2014 Room Leo + Virgo |
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| 08:30–09:00 |
EMS2014-235
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Ensemble forecasts for Sochi-2014 Olympics: development of COSMO-based ensemble systems and their application Elena Astakhova, Andrea Montani, Dmitry Alferov, Dmitry Kiktev, Gdaly Rivin, Inna Rozinkina, Chiara Marsigli, and Tiziana Paccagnella |
| 09:00–09:15 |
EMS2014-480
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COSMO-CZ-EPS verification and uncertainty assessment Petr Zacharov, Daniela Řezáčová, and Zbyněk Sokol |
| 09:15–09:30 |
EMS2014-557
INCA Precipitation Analysis and Ensemble Nowcasting - Recent Developments and Operational Experiences Benedikt Bica, Martin Suklitsch, and Alexander Kann |
| 09:30–09:45 |
EMS2014-20
Wind Speed Ensemble Predictions with an Analog-based Method in Complex Terrain Iris Odak, Luca Delle Monache, Kristian Horvath, Mario Hrastinski, and Alica Bajić |
| 09:45–10:00 |
EMS2014-63
| presentation
Gale Warning for Swiss Lakes and Regional Aerodromes based on Ensemble Genetic Programming Lysiane Mayoraz, Jacques Ambühl, Roman Voisard, Christophe Voisard, Manuela Züger, and Hans Romang |
| 10:00–10:15 |
EMS2014-473
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Multi-model ensemble hydrometeorological modelling of the 4 November 2011 Genoa, Italy flash flood in the framework of the DRIHM project Alan Hally and the DRIHM |
| 10:15–10:30 |
Short poster introductions (3 minutes per poster)
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Coffee Break & Poster Sessions
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| 11:30–12:00 |
EMS2014-243
Optimizing the analog ensemble for probabilistic wind power forecasting at four on and offshore wind farms Constantin Junk, Luca Delle Monache, Stefano Alessandrini, Lueder von Bremen, and Stephan Späth |
| 12:00–12:15 |
EMS2014-81
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Extending Extended Logistic Regression: Extended vs. Separate vs. Ordered vs. Censored Jakob W. Messner, Georg J. Mayr, Daniel S. Wilks, and Achim Zeileis |
| 12:15–12:30 |
EMS2014-68
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Impact of high-resolution boundary conditions on the quality of COSMO-LEPS forecasts Andrea Montani, Chiara Marsigli, and Tiziana Paccagnella |
| 12:30–12:45 |
EMS2014-343
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SRNWP-PEPS: An operational regional multi-model ensemble in Europe Sebastian Trepte, Michael Denhard, and Bernhard Reichert |
| 12:45–13:00 |
EMS2014-306
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A Hybrid, NWP-Analog Ensemble Luca Delle Monache and F. Anthony Eckel |
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Lunch Break
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| 15:30–15:45 |
EMS2014-305
Stochastic ice phase microphysics in Harmonie EPS and verification of snow forecasts Sibbo van der Veen |
| 15:45–16:00 |
EMS2014-119
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Impact of the back scatter kinetic energy on the perturbation of ensemble members for strong convective event Jakub Guzikowski |