Orals NWP4
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NWP4 Probabilistic and ensemble forecasting at short and medium-range |
| Convener: Andrea Montani | Co-Conveners: Jan Barkmeijer , Fernando Prates |
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Tuesday, 7 October 2014 Room Leo + Virgo Chairperson: Montani, A. |
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| 08:30–09:00 |
EMS2014-235
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Ensemble forecasts for Sochi-2014 Olympics: development of COSMO-based ensemble systems and their application (solicited) Elena Astakhova, Andrea Montani, Dmitry Alferov, Dmitry Kiktev, Gdaly Rivin, Inna Rozinkina, Chiara Marsigli, and Tiziana Paccagnella |
| 09:00–09:15 |
EMS2014-480
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COSMO-CZ-EPS verification and uncertainty assessment Petr Zacharov, Daniela Řezáčová, and Zbyněk Sokol |
| 09:15–09:30 |
EMS2014-557
INCA Precipitation Analysis and Ensemble Nowcasting - Recent Developments and Operational Experiences Benedikt Bica, Martin Suklitsch, and Alexander Kann |
| 09:30–09:45 |
EMS2014-20
Wind Speed Ensemble Predictions with an Analog-based Method in Complex Terrain Iris Odak, Luca Delle Monache, Kristian Horvath, Mario Hrastinski, and Alica Bajić |
| 09:45–10:00 |
EMS2014-63
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Gale Warning for Swiss Lakes and Regional Aerodromes based on Ensemble Genetic Programming Lysiane Mayoraz, Jacques Ambühl, Roman Voisard, Christophe Voisard, Manuela Züger, and Hans Romang |
| 10:00–10:15 |
EMS2014-473
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Multi-model ensemble hydrometeorological modelling of the 4 November 2011 Genoa, Italy flash flood in the framework of the DRIHM project Alan Hally and the DRIHM |
| 10:15–10:30 |
Short poster introductions (3 minutes per poster)
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Coffee Break & Poster Sessions
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| 11:30–12:00 |
EMS2014-243
Optimizing the analog ensemble for probabilistic wind power forecasting at four on and offshore wind farms (solicited) Constantin Junk, Luca Delle Monache, Stefano Alessandrini, Lueder von Bremen, and Stephan Späth |
| 12:00–12:15 |
EMS2014-81
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Extending Extended Logistic Regression: Extended vs. Separate vs. Ordered vs. Censored Jakob W. Messner, Georg J. Mayr, Daniel S. Wilks, and Achim Zeileis |
| 12:15–12:30 |
EMS2014-68
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Impact of high-resolution boundary conditions on the quality of COSMO-LEPS forecasts Andrea Montani, Chiara Marsigli, and Tiziana Paccagnella |
| 12:30–12:45 |
EMS2014-343
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SRNWP-PEPS: An operational regional multi-model ensemble in Europe Sebastian Trepte, Michael Denhard, and Bernhard Reichert |
| 12:45–13:00 |
EMS2014-306
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A Hybrid, NWP-Analog Ensemble Luca Delle Monache and F. Anthony Eckel |
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Lunch Break
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| 15:30–15:45 |
EMS2014-305
Stochastic ice phase microphysics in Harmonie EPS and verification of snow forecasts Sibbo van der Veen |
| 15:45–16:00 |
EMS2014-119
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Impact of the back scatter kinetic energy on the perturbation of ensemble members for strong convective event Jakub Guzikowski |