NWP1

Dynamics and predictability of high impact weather in operational forecasting, including nowcasting
Convener: Timothy Hewson  | Co-Convener: Suzanne L. Gray 
Orals
 / Wed, 08 Oct, 08:30–12:00  / Room Leo + Virgo
Posters
 / Attendance Wed, 08 Oct, 10:30–11:30  / Display Mon, 06 Oct, 09:00–Wed, 08 Oct, 13:00  / Meridian Left Back

This session will concentrate on the dynamics and predictability of 'weather features' - such as extra-tropical cyclones - at lead times up to a week ahead, as well as the physical processes that affect these systems. Smaller scale features, such as convective storms, are included. A particular focus will be the high impact weather of varying types that can result, such as windstorms, rainstorms, snowstorms, freezing rain and hail. We strongly encourage submissions that are motivated by the needs of particular user groups.

The session will accept papers on a wide range of topics that include the following:
• Study of the dynamics of weather features, such as fronts, jet-streams, tropical cyclones and extra-tropical cyclones
• Theoretical, modelling and observational studies of processes that result in well, but also poorly predicted high impact weather
• Nowcasting studies and applications
• Investigations into the dynamical and physical factors that limit the skill of current predictions, across a wide range of scale

Case studies of high impact weather events, from operational forecasting or field experiment perspectives, are encouraged. Such cases may also reference tools developed for specific downstream applications of NWP forecasts (e.g. in hydrology).