OSA1.4Probabilistic and ensemble forecasting from short to seasonal time scales
|Convener: Andrea Montani | Co-Conveners: Jan Barkmeijer , Fernando Prates|
The session will focus on the most recent developments in the field of ensemble techniques, ranging from its close connection with data-assimilation and nowcasting at short ranges, up to the medium range (2 weeks).
As such it may provide a platform for exchanging ideas on how to create and use an ensemble system (techniques which may vary according to the forecast lead time). In particular, the forecaster perspective and the use of ensembles in predicting hazardous weather from several hours ahead will be of interest.
The conveners invite papers on various issues associated with Ensemble Forecasting for weather prediction, such as:
• representation of initial uncertainties in Global and Limited-Area Ensemble Prediction Systems, including interlinks between data-assimilation and probabilistic forecasting;
• representation of model or boundary uncertainties in Global and Limited-Area Ensemble Prediction Systems;
• results from experiments including THORPEX Regional Campaigns, HyMeX, FROST-2014, etc.;
• results from recent studies using TIGGE and TIGGE-LAM databases;
• use, verification and calibration methods of Ensemble Prediction Systems;
• applications of probabilistic forecasts in the sectors of energy, health, transport, agriculture, insurance and finance.