Orals OSA1.4
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OSA1.4 Probabilistic and ensemble forecasting from short to seasonal time scales |
| Convener: Andrea Montani | Co-Conveners: Jan Barkmeijer , Fernando Prates |
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Friday, 7 September 2018 Room E II Chairperson: Andrea Montani |
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| 09:00–09:30 |
EMS2018-650
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Climate services for clean energy: the S2S4E project (solicited) Albert Soret, Llorenç Lledó, Andrea Manrique-Suñén, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Nube González-Reviriego, Jana Sillmann, Tiina Ruohonen, Daniel Cabezón, Christoph Elsässer, Irene Cionni, Emma Suckling, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Laurent Dubus, Sebastien Nouvellon, Mathieu Salel, Harilaos Loukos, Joan Miquel Anglès, and Isadora Christel |
| 09:30–09:45 |
EMS2018-186
Forecasting severe weather in the medium and extended ranges Ivan Tsonevsky |
| 09:45–10:00 |
EMS2018-282
Observational evidence of European summer weather patterns predictable from spring Albert Osso, Len Shaffrey, Rowan Sutton, and Buwen Dong |
| 10:00–10:15 |
EMS2018-162
Calibration of ECMWF precipitation forecasts in a dual resolution ensemble Estíbaliz Gascón, David Lavers, David Richardson, Martin Leutbecher, Zied Ben Bouallegue, Florian Pappenberger, and Thomas Hamill |
| 10:15–10:30 |
Poster pitches
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Poster session & refreshment break
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| 11:30–11:45 |
EMS2018-20
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Creating a probabilistic, multi-model post-processing system at the Met Office Gavin Evans, Nigel Roberts, and Jonathan Flowerdew |
| 11:45–12:00 |
EMS2018-70
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The use of a topographically aware neighbourhood technique to produce probabilistic forecasts Fiona Rust and Nigel Roberts |
| 12:00–12:15 |
EMS2018-74
Object-oriented processing of deterministic and ensemble weather forecasts: application to rainfall and convection hazard Lucie Rottner, Yamina Hamidi, Laure Raynaud, and Philippe Arbogast |
| 12:15–12:30 |
EMS2018-385
New calibrated daily rainfall probability guidance Gary Weymouth, Philip Riley, Thomas Gale, Timothy Hume, and Anja Schubert |
| 12:30–12:45 |
EMS2018-138
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Development of user-oriented ensemble products based on COSMO-LEPS: recent upgrades at Arpae-SIMC Andrea Montani, Chiara Marsigli, and Tiziana Paccagnella |
| 12:45–13:00 |
EMS2018-240
| presentation
Characterization of the model error in COSMO-D2-EPS using a flow-dependent partial SDE Martin Sprengel, Tobias Heppelmann, Ekaterina Machulskaya, and Christoph Gebhardt |
| 13:00–13:15 |
EMS2018-23
Application of Time-Lagged Cloud-Resolving Ensemble Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts in Taiwan for Typhoon Morakot (2009) Chung-Chieh Wang and Shin-Hau Chen |