Abstracts with displays

Extreme wind gusts have severe socio-economic impacts, so any source of extra information on this variable is invaluable for mitigating associated damages and
protecting vulnerable communities. Unfortunately, networks of ocial measurement stations are limited in their ability to observe wind gusts. Official stations
are separated by vast distances, so extreme wind gusts often go unobserved due to the highly localised nature of these events. A wealth of additional observa-
tions is available from personal weather stations (PWSs) and could be used in combination with official observations to observe extreme gust events. However,
concerns about underlying data quality have to date prevented the usage of gust data from PWSs.

Research for other meteorological variables has demonstrated that with appropriate quality control PWSs can contribute high-quality observations that complement ocial measurements. It is well known that PWSs can provide useful and reliable temperature and precipitation observations. For crowd-sourced wind variables, the situation is more dicult. Crowd-sourced wind observations have di erent sources of error that pose signi cant challenges to quality control. For example, instrumentation is non-standard which results in di erent sensor sensitivities, and non-standard station placements introduce severe spatial in-consistencies and result in censoring of low wind speeds. Chen et al. (2021) recently developed a  exible approach to quality control and bias adjustment (QC/BA) that addresses this for wind speeds. They incorporate QC steps for official stations and develop new QC/BA steps to address the novel challenges posed by crowd-sourced data. Chen et al. (2021) showed after QC/BA, the wind speed climatology of a network of PWSs matched well with the climatology of ocial stations, and the wind speed variability between PWSs was similar to that of official  tations. Additionally, subsequent analysis has shown that the quality controlled and bias adjusted data from PWSs is able to detect small scale extreme wind speeds  ssociated with thunderstorms, that were not observed at official stations. No attempt has yet been made to quality control crowd-sourced observations of wind gusts  espite how impractical it is to obtain widespread observations of wind gusts using standard techniques.

In this project we will develop the necessary methods and software for the QC/BA of wind gusts. As part of this, we will develop inter-variable consistency checks between crowd-sourced wind speeds, wind gusts and wind directions. We will also produce an open-source, high-quality wind gust data set from PWSs that can be used to improve forecasts, warnings, and veri cation of extreme gusts.

References

Chen, J., Saunders, K. & Whan, K. (2021), `Quality control and bias correction of citizen science wind observations', Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteo-
rological Society (under review) .

How to cite: Whan, K. and Saunders, K.: Second Wind: Extending the official wind gust records with citizen science observations, EMS Annual Meeting 2021, online, 6–10 Sep 2021, EMS2021-510, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2021-510, 2021.

Satellite provide high-resolution information on the state of the atmosphere and thus represent observations are well-suited for data assimilation and model evaluation. So far mainly the thermal infrared channels have been utilized for these purposes. However, there is a rising interest to use also the channels in the solar part of the spectrum, which contain additional, complementary information. Visible channels can provide better information on the water and ice content of clouds than thermal infrared channels, have no problems to detect low clouds and are sensitive to cloud microphysics and the cloud top structure. Moreover, visible reflectances are strongly correlated with the solar irradiation at the surface and thus their assimilation has a clear potential to improve also radiation forecasts.

So far visible satellite images have not been assimilated directly for operational purposes, as multiple scattering dominates in the visible spectral range and makes radiative transfer (RT) computations with standard methods complex and slow. Only recently, we developed a sufficiently fast and accurate forward operator that relies on a compressed reflectance look-up table (LUT) computed with slow standard RT methods. Here we report on using feed-forward neural networks as an alternative to the look-up table and demonstrate that it is possible to achieve higher speed and accuracy. Moreover, both the amount of training data and the memory required by the operator can be reduced by three orders of magnitude. A further advantage is that tangent-linear and adjoint versions can easily be derived for arbitrary network structures and do not have to be changed when the network is trained with different data.

We will also discuss two ways to use the forward operator to improve forecasts. First, we show that observed and synthetic visible  Meteosat SEVIRI images can be used to detect systematic errors in the model clouds that can cause severe problems for data assimilation. Second, based on assimilation experiments using the ICON-D2 model and the local ensemble transformation Kalman filter implemented in DWDs data assimilation coding environment (DACE) we demonstrate for test periods of several weeks that errors in the cloud distribution and the surface radiation can be significantly reduced by assimilating visible SEVIRI images.

How to cite: Scheck, L., Geiss, S., Bach, L., de Lozar, A., and Weissmann, M.: Using visible satellite images for model evaluation and data assimilation, EMS Annual Meeting 2021, online, 6–10 Sep 2021, EMS2021-308, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2021-308, 2021.

This talk will describe an experimental research demonstrating the benefit of including numeric uncertainty information in weather forecasts intended for non-experts. Our results suggest that numeric uncertainty estimates (e.g. 30% chance) allow users to better differentiate situations that do and do not require precautionary action while also increasing understanding and trust in the forecast. People appear to understand that all forecasts involve uncertainty and find forecasts that acknowledge it explicitly more plausible.  Moreover, these benefits are not dependent on higher education or special abilities—they extend to a broad range of users. However, this work also suggests that it is important to present numeric uncertainty estimates in a manner that is compatible with the way in which people process information and with their decision goal. 

How to cite: Joslyn, S.: Uncertainty Information & Non-Expert Decisions, EMS Annual Meeting 2021, online, 6–10 Sep 2021, EMS2021-498, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2021-498, 2021.

The EU has recently adopted its new Framework Programme for Research & Innovation called Horizon Europe (HE) with a budget of 95 billion euros over 7 years (2021-2027). It includes many fundamental and application science areas where the meteorological and climate community at large can contribute to and benefit from funding.

The event will include an introduction by Dr. Adrian Broad (UK Met Office and EUMETNET) to the three pillars of HE, followed by more insights for our community into the most relevant clusters and connections with the important HE missions. This will include among others: climate systems and extreme weather; sustainable and intelligent transport systems in the air, on the road or seas; space weather and earth observation; renewable energy and agriculture sectors; the ocean and marine environment; heat waves and air pollution impact on health; technology and the digital economy; or safe systems for critical infrastructures. To conclude, links between HE and other relevant EU programmes will be made, focussing on Copernicus, Digital Europe and the Civil Protection Mechanism.

How to cite: Broad, A.: The EU Horizon Europe programme: Funding opportunities for the meteorological and climate community – basic and application areas, EMS Annual Meeting 2021, online, 6–10 Sep 2021, EMS2021-511, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2021-511, 2021.

During the last 20 years, floods have become a major hazard in West Africa, particularly in the Sahelian belt, affecting livelihoods, infrastructure and production systems, and hence heavily impacting on sustainable development. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 recognized Climate Services (CS) as a powerful tool for more effective disaster preparedness. The European research and innovation Roadmap for CS expands their contribution, particularly “hydrometeorological services”, to the Sendai Framework. From this convergence, Hydrometeorological Early Warning Systems (EWS) become a strategic target and a building block of preparedness to hydrometeorological risks in developed and developing countries. In West Africa, EWS for floods are in place only for the main rivers and are conceived mainly top-down and hazard centered, lacking links with exposed communities and expected impacts. These gaps reduce the effectiveness of a flood EWS, while engaging local communities since de beginning through a co-production process can improve the effectiveness and ensure better response in case of alert.

Our study aims to present the lessons learnt from the set-up of a Community and Impact Based Flood EWS on the Sirba River in Niger. The service was developed with stakeholders at different levels, leveraging on existing resources and knowledge, using simple but effective approaches and integrating state-of-the-art hydro-meteorological science in a decisional scheme of Sahelian rural areas. This mechanism can be replicable in different contexts characterized by knowledge and structural deficits, by creating a better capacity to exchange data and information and by directly connecting available technical capabilities with the local level. The participatory approach allowed the beneficiaries to define the rules of the system, which, in any case, needed to be consistent with the national legislation and internationally recognized best practices.

The study suggests that it is not necessary to develop complex forecasting tools, while it can be preferable to enhance those already operating and calibrate them on the local scale through risk thresholds, field observations and potential impacts using flood scenarios. The strength of simplicity also lies in not having to spread complex messages, but simply the reference risk scenario, and finally its color-code (according to the international standards of ISO 22324:2015), which already embeds all other information including potential impacts. The simple and integrated approach illustrated in this case study, bridging the gap between top-down and bottom-up approaches, can inspire Governments, local administrations and development partners to invest in the improvement of existing tools and knowledge and in strengthening cooperation, collaboration and coordination to reduce hazards’ impacts and sustain the development of rural and urban areas.

How to cite: Tarchiani, V., Massazza, G., Rosso, M., Pezzoli, A., Housseini Ibrahim, M., Katiellou, G. L., Tamagnone, P., De Filippis, T., Rocchi, L., Rapisardi, E., Marchi, V., and Tiepolo, M.: Setting-up an hydrometeorological early warning service in Niger: lessons learnt on the co-development approach, EMS Annual Meeting 2021, online, 6–10 Sep 2021, EMS2021-30, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2021-30, 2021.

The intersectoral workshop held in December 2016 among the Ibero-American networks on water (CODIA), climate change (RIOCC) and meteorology (CIMHET) identified the need to dispose of downscaled climate change scenarios for Central America. Such scenarios would be developed by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) in the region, based on a common methodology, allowing the assessment of climate change impacts on water resources and extreme hydro-meteorological events.

One final outcome of the project has been a freely accessible web viewer, installed on the Centro Clima webpage (https://centroclima.org/escenarios-cambio-climatico/), managed by CRRH-SICA, where all information generated during the project is available for consultation and data downloading by the different sectors of users.

A key element in this project has been to integrate many downscaled projections based on different methods (dynamical and statistical), totalizing 45 different projections, and aiming at estimating the uncertainty coming from different sources in the best possible way.

Another essential element has been the strong involvement of the different user sectors through national workshops, first, at the beginning of the project for the identification and definition of viewer features the project, and then for the presentation of results and planning of its use by prioritized sectors.

In a second phase of the project, a regional working group made up of experts from the NMHSs will be in charge of viewer maintenance and upgrade, including new sectoral parameters, developed in collaboration with interested users, and computation and addition of new downscaled projections from CMIP 6 in collaboration with AEMET.

Finally, following the request of CIMHET, the possibility of replicating this project for other areas of Ibero-America is being evaluated.

How to cite: Tamayo, J., Rodriguez-Camino, E., and Covaleda, S.: Development of downscaled Climate Change Scenarios for Central America. Lessons learned and next steps, EMS Annual Meeting 2021, online, 6–10 Sep 2021, EMS2021-99, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2021-99, 2021.

Cities are a spatial nexus for a great number of environmental change issues on all scales from natural disasters like flooding, heat waves to poor air quality and to climate change. These issues are closely linked to the land-cover and land-use changes associated with urbanisation including the urban layout, the local economy, transportation networks and energy systems. The environmental services to deal with the risks associated with climate changes have developed independently with distinct scientific infrastructures for different domains/areas (e.g. observation systems and models to support meteorology, hydrology or air quality are disconnected) and specific audiences associated with stakeholder needs. The result is that the services are fragmented, the infrastructure is not shared, and new audiences/services are not identified. In cities where the drivers and risks associated with climate changes are bundled, integration of services is needed to manage risks and support urban resilience.

The WMO has embarked on a mission to develop integrated urban services (IUS) to bring together different environmental services to share data and tools and develop a common system of communications that support risk management and long-term planning at urban scales. An IUS is envisaged as an evolving system that is co-created with stakeholders to ensure a service that is adaptable to specific urban environmental concerns. The WMO has created guidelines for the creation of an IUS and a report that showcases IUS using demonstration cities. This presentation focuses on the final component of this mission, that of implementing an IUS. As part of this work, the WMO has reached out to a wide spectrum of urban stakeholders to identify needs, which can form a framework for next generation services. In addition, it will evaluate the costs and benefits of implementing IUS in different socioeconomic settings.

How to cite: Mills, G. and Tarasova, O.: Implementing Integrated Urban Services, EMS Annual Meeting 2021, online, 6–10 Sep 2021, EMS2021-501, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2021-501, 2021.

Communicating the scientific data of the weather forecasts to the general public has always been a challenge. Using computer graphics’ visual representations to convey the message to television viewers and through weather apps and websites has certainly helped a lot to popularize the weather forecast consumption by the general public. However, these representations are not information rich since they are abstraction; moreover they are not always very actionable on the receiver side to help one decide how s/he will “live” the forecast weather conditions. Therefore, there is a need to personalize the forecast based on past user experience and personal needs. The forecast has to become more human- and needs-oriented and more focused to the particular requirements of each individual person. The challenge is to move from providing the abstraction of atmospheric information to a real sense of how the weather will "feel" to the individual.

We therefore propose a new co-creation process in which the audience is called on to provide a daily feedback on how they lived the weather conditions personally, so that, “my personal forecast” can be produced making the forecast more actionable on the user side. Preliminary, but more personalized, such attempts include the “feels like” temperature forecasts. To arrive at the “my personal forecast”, AI-based recommender systems need to be applied, using fuzzy logic as the appropriate method for the user to express how s/he actually lived personally lived weather conditions every day. Over time this information can then be used to transform science-based descriptions of weather conditions into a sense of how the weather will be experienced at a personal level.

How to cite: Stamoulis, D. and Giannopoulos, P.: Pesonalising weather forecasts using AI techniques, EMS Annual Meeting 2021, online, 6–10 Sep 2021, EMS2021-502, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2021-502, 2021.

Distance learning is assuming a greater value in professional training both because of its lower cost compared to face-to-face learning and for the opportunities it provides in periods when trainee displacement is hindered by socio-political or health emergencies (e.g. the recent covid-19 pandemic). Moreover, distance learning allows us to create lasting learning resources that otherwise would not be continuously available for trainees. During recent years, the World Meteorological Organization invested human and financial resources in the development of the Global Campus initiative, which has  virtual spaces where learning materials and opportunities are gathered and made available to users. As part of the Global Campus initiative, the Regional Training Center in Italy, with the support of the Italian Ministries of Foreign Affairs, developed several distance learning packages among which the TOPaCS (Training Operational Package For Climate Services) addresses the training needs of Climate Services Professionals in sub-Saharan Africa. TOPaCS builds on the competency-based training approach and on the application of up-to-date training solutions such as the integrated use of different multimedia supports and the use of Open Badges to certify learning. Synchronous distance learning was also tested for teaching soft skills related to climate services communication. This contribution analyzes pros and cons of distance learning approaches, comparing synchronous and asynchronous solutions and their suitability for hard and soft skills teaching. It highlights opportunities and constraints, critical points and key strategic choices in the development of distance learning. The results of the study highlight that flexible solutions and versatile approaches allow personalized training paths according to end-user needs. Asynchronous microlearning (very small units of study) can be helpful in this perspective but it may result in the atomization of the training modules and the fragmentation of education pathways. Synchronous distance learning is often more appropriate for soft skills but requires larger development  efforts and more efficient technical solutions (e.g. higher bandwidth), which can be an issue in some developing countries. 

How to cite: Tarchiani, V., Bacci, M., Rapisardi, E., Parrish, P., Veek, L., Pasqui, M., Di Giuseppe, E., Righini, G., Simonetti, M., and Baldi, M.: Benefits and Challenges of distance Learning approaches for the Training of Climate Services Professionals in sub-Saharan Africa, EMS Annual Meeting 2021, online, 6–10 Sep 2021, EMS2021-32, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2021-32, 2021.

In this communication, FLOODUP, a strategy that combines a participatory methodology (citizen science) with educational activities, will be presented as a measure of adaptation to floods and their possible increase due to climate change. The adaptation strategies to climate change range from structural measures (building a dam, for example) to non-structural measures (legislation and improvement of risk assessment, for example). In recent years it has become clear that it is necessary to increase the risk awareness of the population in the face of extreme events such as floods, not only when they occur but also before and after (Hyogo Framework). The population's lack of awareness in front of natural hazards makes it difficult to take responsible decisions at the individual and community level. This is especially relevant considering the context of climate change, which also contributes with a perception of uncertainty. In this context, the development of innovative adaptation strategies based on the knowledge are needed. These strategies are also an opportunity to face the challenges associated with SDGs (Sustainable Development Goals).

The objective of FLOODUP project is double: (a) to improve the knowledge, capacitation and empowerment of the population in front of natural hazards and climatic change and (b) to collect information about their impact and management through citizen science. The tools developed in the project as a mobile application, questionnaires or educational materials will be presented. The main campaigns carried out will also be shown. Their aim is to generate spaces for reflection, especially after flood events. On the other hand, the itinerary of citizen science that is developed in secondary schools and its strengths and weaknesses will be presented. Finally, it will analyze how to respond to current challenges, such as those associated with the SDGs, from projects such as FLOODUP.

This work has been done in the framework of the M-CostAdapt (CTM2017-83655-C2-1&2-R) research project, funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (MICINN-AEI/FEDER, UE) and the PIRAGUA project EFA210/16 Interreg V Spain-France-Andorre Programme (POCTEFA 2014-2020, EU).

How to cite: Llasat-Botija, M. and Llasat, M. C.: A climate change adaptation measure through education and citizen science. The project FLOODUP, EMS Annual Meeting 2021, online, 6–10 Sep 2021, EMS2021-256, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2021-256, 2021.

The provision of climate services to users is a fast developing field. In support of this development, the IS-ENES3 project, funded within the EC Horizon2020 program, organized three schools on “Climate data for impact assessments” in 2020 and 2021. In an Autumn school, a Spring school and a Summer school, climate scientists and impact scientists were brought together. An important aim of the schools was to enhance interaction between Vulnerability-Impact-Adaptation (VIA) researchers, climate services providers and climate researchers. Another aim was to provide an overview of information on climate modeling, climate data, impact modelling and climate services based on the work of the IS-ENE3 project.

In the first three weeks a series of lectures was given, covering topics such as climate data and modelling, impact models, portals for accessing and processing climate data, setting-up impact assessments, and communication of results to stakeholders. In the last three weeks the participants worked in small groups of one climate scientist with one impact scientist on a case study under the guidance of the course lecturers. Impact and climate researchers were combined on purpose to let them experience how they could help each other.

Originally the schools were planned to take place on-site (e.g. in Prague) during one week; however, due to COVID-19 the schools had to be transformed to virtual schools with two weekly sessions during six weeks. Although the virtual set-up had some disadvantages (e.g. less possibilities for networking), there were also some advantages (e.g. the possibility to record the lectures and make them available to a broader audience; more time to explore and work with climate data in between the sessions, no CO₂ emissions for travelling). During this presentation we will present the set-up of the schools and the conversion to a virtual school. We will focus on the lessons learnt and the evaluation of the virtual schools by the participants and give some recommendations for similar schools and how to link the climate and VIA research communities .

How to cite: Bessembinder, J., Klostermann, J., Dankers, R., Djurdjevic, V., and Halenka, T.: Experiences with virtual schools on “Climate data for impact assessments”, EMS Annual Meeting 2021, online, 6–10 Sep 2021, EMS2021-353, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2021-353, 2021.

Voluntary weather measurements have a long tradition and the opportunities have recently expanded with that the advent of the Internet of Things. Atmospheric measurements are prototypical examples for the maker community and popular means to strengthen interest in STEM subjects. In two projects in Germany  (in Brandenburg, within the FESSTVaL (Field Experiment on submesoscale spatio-temporal variability in Lindenberg) measurement campaign initiated by the Hans-Ertel-Center for Weather Research, and in Bavaria, in the KARE-Citizen Science  project), we use a weather station to be assembled by pupils as a participatory vehicle to increase interest in and understanding of weather and climate, as well as of weather forecasting, and to generate high resolution data for research.

The devices measure e.g. temperature, humidity, radiation, pressure and precipitation in the students' immediate environment. They can be placed in almost any location, since they operate independent of W-LAN and external power supply. The data is visualized directly via a web app. Students report weather impacts, such as observed damage or their own exposure to weather. Due to the pandemic, only a few dozens pupils were able to participate and building their devices had to be done with digital guidance and video support. Further online materials on understanding weather forecasting and its uncertainty were provided.

Understanding of weather risks was surveyed before and after participation to detect any changes. Students were asked questions about thunderstorm, rain and heat events and climatic changes since 1880. The results show a good understanding of weather risks compared to a population of all ages representative study. In online workshops pupils together with the scientists scetched and discussed the influence of the placement of their stations on their measurements. Interesting meteorological phenomena were discovered in the dataset, e.g. a cold pool that can form during a thunderstorm and trigger new ones. Thus, our network of higher spatial and temporal resolution data collected by the pupils has the potential to study these small-scale phenomena in more detail than with professional networks of about 25 km spacing.

How to cite: Göber, M., Rust, H., Kox, T., Wentzel, B., Böttcher, C., Lehmke, J., Trojand, A., and Fleischhut, N.: Build, measure, understand: Pupils contributing to meteorological measurement campaigns., EMS Annual Meeting 2021, online, 6–10 Sep 2021, EMS2021-398, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2021-398, 2021.