Statistically downscaled decadal predictions for summer precipitation forecast in Colombia

The impacts on the environment due to climate change are substantial for the future and could markedly affect the hydrology of tropical regions, as evidenced in the latest reports of The Invergovermental Panel on Climate (IPCC). This research studies the potential use of decadal predictions from the MIROC6 (National Institute for Environmental Studies Model of the University of Tokyo Japan) model to predict boreal summer (from June to August) precipitation in Colombia for the first year of each simulated decade. Colombia is a country with areas with large annual precipitation records but also with dry regions, where the precipitation variability has marked socioeconomic and biodiversity impacts. The choice of this model is based on its ability to reproduce the main atmospheric circulation patterns affecting to the study area. The analysis is based on a statistical downscaling (DS) of an ensemble of 10 decadal hindcasts from this model to obtain regionalized predictions of precipitation. The added value of these high precipitation simulations is addressed comparing them with those directly computed from MIROC6 outputs.

Keywords: precipitation, Colombia, decadal predictions, statistical downscaling.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: Y.M.T.O. thank the Colombian Ministry of Science, Technology, and Innovation for the predoctoral fellowship (grant code: 860). This research has been carried out in the framework of the project CGL2017-89836-R, funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness with additional FEDER funds, project P20_00035, funded by FEDER/Junta de Andalucía-Consejería de Transformación Económica, Industria, Conocimiento y Universidades, the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (LifeWatch-2019-10-UGR-01), and the project B-RNM-336-UGR18, funded by FEDER / Junta de Andalucía - Consejería de Economía y Conocimiento.