Grain production and climate change in south-eastern Norway

The extreme weather in 2017 and 2018 served as a wake-up call for the Norwegian agriculture sector. The growth season of 2017 was very wet, whereas 2018 was extraordinarily dry and warm. The weather had major consequences for yields. Many asked themselves how climate change will affect agriculture moving forward, and how we can maintain food production in the face of climate change? 

In a case study lead by Telemarkforskning and financed by Oslofondet, we investigated how climate change may impact the grain production in the Vestfold and Telemark counties, a main grain production area located in the south-eastern part of Norway. 

Climate indices were defined in collaboration with local farmers and calculated for historical and projected future climate change in Vestfold and Telemark. The results show that summer temperatures are rising, and that the growth season is expected to increase by about a month towards the middle of the century, compared to the period 1971–2000. The number of growth degree days increases, too. Precipitation predictions are more uncertain. Towards the middle of the century, a small increase in precipitation is expected in the summer half-year (April to September) in most of the area. However, in grain producing areas most models project reduced precipitation in the summer half-year. Comparing the periods April–May and August–September projections indicate that Spring/early Summer will be wetter, and the late Summer drier, moving forward. The number of dry days is projected to decrease in April–May and increase in August, and opposite for the number of wet days. No matter the development in precipitation, drought risk will increase in the future, because increased temperatures lead to increased evaporation.

Further analyses based on this study are needed to gain knowledge about future climate change and measures for a more climate robust food production within all productions and regions of the country.