The socio-economic impact of recent extreme events, e.g., the floods in Germany and China, and the heat waves and forest fires in Canada and the Mediterranean, highlight society's need for accurate weather forecasts and climate projections. Despite substantial progress in numerical modelling in recent decades, predictability for extreme events is often limited and the assessments of future changes in extremes remain uncertain. This underscores the need to improve our understanding of the complex, nonlinear interactions of dynamical and physical processes that influence predictability at different lead times and determine the location, timing, and magnitude of extreme events.
This session will discuss our current understanding of how physical and dynamical processes connect atmospheric motions across temporal and spatial scales and how this relates to intrinsic and practical predictability of various weather phenomena. We particularly welcome but are not limited to contributions advancing our understanding and prediction of weather and climate extremes, from both an applied and theoretical viewpoint.
Topics of interest include but are not limited to:
(1) Synoptic-scale atmospheric dynamics affecting the timing, positioning, and amplitude of weather events (e.g., the stationarity and amplitude of Rossby waves).
(2) Large-scale atmospheric and oceanic influences (e.g., the stratosphere, the Artic, or tropical oceans) on atmospheric variability and predictability in the midlatitudes.
(3) Intrinsic limits of predictability for various atmospheric phenomena and their link to the multi-scale, non-linear nature of atmospheric dynamics.
(4) Practical limits of predictability and the representation of atmospheric phenomena in numerical weather prediction and climate models including sensitivities to the model physics.
(5) Weather and climate extremes, including compound extreme events, their dynamics, predictability, and representation in weather and climate models.
(6) Statistical and mathematical approaches for the study of extreme events.
(7) Impact and risk assessment analyses of extreme events.
(8) Extreme event attribution and changes in extreme event occurrences under climate change.