The socio-economic impact of recent extreme events, e.g., the floods in Germany and China, and the heat waves and forest fires in Canada and the Mediterranean, highlight society's need for accurate weather forecasts and climate projections. Despite substantial progress in numerical modelling in recent decades, predictability for extreme events is often limited and the assessments of future changes in extremes remain uncertain. This underscores the need to improve our understanding of the complex, nonlinear interactions of dynamical and physical processes that influence predictability at different lead times and determine the location, timing, and magnitude of extreme events.
This session will discuss our current understanding of how physical and dynamical processes connect atmospheric motions across temporal and spatial scales and how this relates to intrinsic and practical predictability of various weather phenomena. We particularly welcome but are not limited to contributions advancing our understanding and prediction of weather and climate extremes, from both an applied and theoretical viewpoint.
Topics of interest include but are not limited to:
(1) Synoptic-scale atmospheric dynamics affecting the timing, positioning, and amplitude of weather events (e.g., the stationarity and amplitude of Rossby waves).
(2) Large-scale atmospheric and oceanic influences (e.g., the stratosphere, the Artic, or tropical oceans) on atmospheric variability and predictability in the midlatitudes.
(3) Intrinsic limits of predictability for various atmospheric phenomena and their link to the multi-scale, non-linear nature of atmospheric dynamics.
(4) Practical limits of predictability and the representation of atmospheric phenomena in numerical weather prediction and climate models including sensitivities to the model physics.
(5) Weather and climate extremes, including compound extreme events, their dynamics, predictability, and representation in weather and climate models.
(6) Statistical and mathematical approaches for the study of extreme events.
(7) Impact and risk assessment analyses of extreme events.
(8) Extreme event attribution and changes in extreme event occurrences under climate change.
Dear Attendees and Presenters of the EMS 2022 UP1.1 Atmospheric dynamics, predictability, and extremes session,
thanks for the many contributions to UP1.1. We made an effort in arranging an interesting programme covering oral presentations on Thu and Fri and posters on Wednesday.
The oral presentations will be fully hybrid and a chairperson team will moderate onsite and online discussions.
As the poster session is already on Wednesday, we can not offer poster pitches. Please visit the 11 interesting posters (thereof 1 online in gather.town) on Wednesday and meet the authors between 16:00-17:15.
All poster presenters, please upload your material before the conference on the conference webpage and consider using gather.town. This will allow you (virtual) interaction also outside the attendence time Wednesday 16:00-17:15. Unfortunately we will not be able to provide a chairperson in gather.town but hope it will still be a good virtual experience.
Looking forward to intersting discussions in UP1.1 on Wed, Thu, and Fri!
The convenor team