Tenfold Increase in extreme fires in Europe expected under warming climate

Extreme wildfires have a disastrous impact on society and the natural environment. Wildfires are prone in areas with fuel built up and desiccated over time. A warmer and drier climate will lead to an increase in the risk of extreme fires. 

This study quantifies how the risk of extreme fires is conditioned on potential temperature and precipitation changes. Our results indicate that large areas of southern Europe could experience a tenfold increase in the probability of catastrophic fires occurring any given year under a moderate CMIP6 scenario. If global temperatures reach the +2 C threshold, central and northern Europe will also become more susceptible to wildfires during droughts.

The increasing probability of fire extremes in a warming climate, in combination with an average one-week extension of the fire season across most countries, is expected to strain Europe's ability to cope in the forthcoming decades.

Future increases in the drivers of wildfires caused by climate change are expected to be highly challenging to mitigate. They will impose additional burdens on the European community in managing future fire risks. RescEU is considered the EU’s response to the need to efficiently offset the consequences that the predicted increase in these events can have. RescuEU has proven to reduce the number of causalities by increasing the efficiency and the costs of suppression actions. To a certain extent, investigating suppression capabilities can reduce the realized impacts.  This is curcial since this study indicates that large parts of Europe will experience double the likelihood of these events happening, and some parts of southern Europe could experience a ten-fold increase in the probability of extreme fire weather.