Convective and stratiform precipitation under future climate

Convective and stratiform precipitation differ not only in their origin, but also in their characteristics. Different risks arise from them, and they also exhibit distinct trends under climate change. Convective precipitation is associated with intense storms and tends to develop rapidly and locally, whereas stratiform precipitation is linked with longer lasting and less intense rainfall events. Their distinct characteristics have varied impacts on ecosystems, agriculture, infrastructure, and human lives.

In this study, we focus on analyzing the current characteristics of convective and stratiform precipitation and assess their future changes using ALADIN-CLIMATE/CZ model. Due to uncertain future concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, two CMIP6 scenarios are analyzed: SSP5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5. The ALADIN-CLIMATE/CZ model is based on the ALARO canonical model configuration of the ALADIN System. The model domain covers Central Europe, with a horizontal grid size of 2.3 km and it belongs to the so-called convection permitting models. We utilize data from 19 stations in the network of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute to validate the model. The historical validation period spans from 1990 to 2014. Employing an algorithm that uses information from the SYNOP report, we separate precipitation into convective and stratiform. We have found that the ALADIN-CLIMATE/CZ model overestimates both stratiform and convective precipitation in all months. Convective precipitation is better captured by the model in summer than stratiform precipitation. We examine precipitation characteristics across 25 winter and summer seasons for both the near future (2050-2074) and for the end of the 21st century (2074-2099). In future climate assessments, we focus on extreme events in addition to total seasonal precipitation.