Climate Change Impacts on Montenegrin Viticulture

Montenegro is located on the Balkan Peninsula. This country portrays a complex topography, and so various climate types are found, from alpine conditions in inland mountains to a Mediterranean climate in valleys and near the coast. The Mediterranean conditions allowed Montenegro to develop a viticulture heritage, which is becoming threatened by climate change. Most of the vineyards are located in the vicinity of the capital, Podgorica, where the temperature will certainly increase. In this sequence, the present study aimed to expose the climate change impacts on Montenegrin Viticulture, resorting to a high-resolution dataset CHELSA (≈ 1km). Temperature data from the weather station was compared to the CHELSA dataset for the historical period, revealing that the dataset is accurate. Thermal bioclimatic indices were analyzed for the historical period 1981-2010, and for the future period 2041-2070. Projections were ensembled for 5 climate models, and encompassed 3 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSP1—2.6, SSP3—7.0, SSP5—8.5. The results revealed that, regardless of the SSP scenario, the temperature increase threatens Montenegrin viticulture, as the baseline conditions will be surpassed. Temperature increase will be major during the warmest quarter, which will be around 4 °C. Regarding the growing season, the average temperature from April to October, will reach 24 °C, which is above traditional thresholds for successful grape growing. The mean annual temperature will increase by more than 2 °C, and as a consequence, the growing season will be expanded, by more than 1 month, anticipating phenological events. During the historical period, the Winkler Index is 2530 °C, suitable for wine production, but in future, there will be excessive heat in grapevines, as the Winkler index will become higher than 3000 °C, increasing the risk of thermal and hydric stress. These findings are alarming, serving as a careful alert that adaptation measures should be applied in the short term, to guarantee the long-term sustainability and productivity of Montenegrin Viticulture.

Acknowledgments:
Research funded by National Funds by FCT – Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project UIDB/04033/2020 and LA/P/0126/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/04033/2020)
This research was funded by the MONTEVITIS project “Integrating a comprehensive European approach for climate change mitigation and adaptation in Montenegro viticulture”, funded by the European Union’s Horizon Europe—the Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (2021–2027)—under grant agreement nº 101059461