Links between weather variability and Dengue outbreaks in Sao Paulo, Brazil
- 1Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
- 2Institute of Geophysics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
- 3Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
- 4University of São Francisco, Bragança Paulista, Brazil
- 5Center for Infectious Animal Diseases, Faculty of Tropical AgriSciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
Mosquito-borne diseases are among the most dangerous threats for all people living in tropical areas and Dengue fever is one of the fastest growing disease in the world (Watts et al. 2019). Previous research has shown that the highest incidence of mosquito-borne diseases is associated with a particular type of weather (usually wet and hot) as mosquitos’ activity and development are highly dependent on meteorological conditions. However, short-term associations (on the scale of days up to a few weeks) have been less understood.
In this study, we collected weekly data on the incidence of Dengue on a municipality level (obtained from Secretaria de Estado da Saúde de São Paulo). These were aggregated into 17 Regional Health Departments (DRSs) in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, 2016–2022 and standardized by population count in each DRS. Additionally, environmental and socioeconomic characteristics of the 17 DRSs were collected and matched with ERA5-based weather characteristics (ambient temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and precipitation). Consequently, we employed a mixed meta-regression model with a random effect in order to analyse the links between Dengue incidence and weather variables, while taking into account the modifying effects of environmental and socioeconomic characteristics.
Our preliminary results suggest the largest relative risk of Dengue incidence at week 0 to 3 after a warm and humid period and up to 12 weeks after a heavy rainfall. Further analysis is needed to identify spatial differences in these patterns based on socioeconomic conditions. This study will contribute to better understanding of short-term links between weather variability and Dengue outbreaks.
Watts, N et al. (2019). The 2019 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: ensuring that the health of a child born today is not defined by a changing climate. The Lancet, 394(10211), 1836–1878. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(19)32596-6
How to cite: Urban, A., Araújo, J., Oliveira, S., S. Celina, S., and Černý, J.: Links between weather variability and Dengue outbreaks in Sao Paulo, Brazil, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-204, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-204, 2024.
