Changes in vegetable and arable crop insect pest occurrence caused by climate change – models investigated in the scope of the ACRP-project RIMPEST1

In the scope of the ACRP-project RIMPEST¹ we tested prognosis models for thermophilic, economically relevant insect pests in agriculture in Austria. We focused on Diabrotica virgifera virgifera and Ostrinia nubilalis, as pests in corn as well as Helicoverpa armigera, Aphis fabae, Acyrtosiphon pisum and Myzus persicae as pests in vegetables.

The respective models collected via extensive systematic literature research, were further processed, tested, and validated using historical monitoring and weather data to choose models with the best fit for Austria for each investigated species.

For Diabrotica v.v. the zero-inflated Poisson mixture model (Falkner (2018) was chosen as best fit, since it was developed with Austrian monitoring data (2002 – 2015) and utilizes spatial data on corn crop abundance.

The best fitting prognosis model for O. nubilalis in Austria is the model by Maiorano and Donatelli (2014). Prediction of the flight peak of the first (=winter) generation of the bivoltine race adults has an R² of 0.324 (RMSE 8.424 days, n =35). For the flight peak of the univoltine race, a priori set to 560 degree-days in the model for testing, the R² is 0.288 (RMSE 8.694 days, n = 105).

For H. armigera, a model for prognosis of the development from egg to adult (Dalal and Arora, 2019). performed well calculating the full development of an individual during the season, but did not account for winter diapause and needs an additional model to set the first biofix per year for simulations. We will utilize our monitoring data to design a negative prognosis model for this purpose, which will predict the earliest day an immigrating H. armigera adult can be detected in Austria.

For the aphids two models per species were tested, either for aphid development (A. fabae, A. pisum and M. persicae) or a phenological model (A. pisum and M. persicae). Further testing of these models is still in progress.

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¹ ACRP-13th Call Project RIMPEST (KR20AC0K17957) ("The effect of changing climate on potential risks from important insect pests on plant production in Austria and related adaptation options").

https://www.klimafonds.gv.at/report/acrp-13th-call-2020/

https://rimpest.boku.ac.at

https://www.ages.at/en/research/project-highlights/rimpest

 

References:

Dalal, P.K./ Arora, R.: Model‑based phenology prediction of Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Noctuidae: Lepidoptera) on tomato crop. Journal of Plant Diseases and Protection 2019, 126, S. 281-291.

Falkner, K.: Analysing the influences of climate and land use on the spread and abundance of the Western Corn Rootworm in Austria. In, Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Institute for Sustainable Economic Development. Vienna: University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences 2018, S. 133.

Maiorano, A./ Donatelli, M.: Validation of an insect pest phenological model for the European corn borer (Ostrinia nubilalis Hbn) in the Po Valley in Italy. Italian Journal of Agrometeorology 2014, 18, S. 43-50.