Use of climate change scenarios for pest algorithms in Austria
- 1Institute of Meteorology and Climatology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria (sabina.thaler@boku.ac.at)
- 2Institute for Sustainable Plant Production, Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety (AGES), Vienna, Austria
Global warming will modify the dynamics of thermophilic pest insect populations and their spread, which could raise the risk of crop damage and plant production. Long-term insect pest monitoring can provide important data for developing pest models, which can help to predict future pest risk trends in the face of climate change. Within the ACRP-project RIMPEST1 ("The effect of changing climate on potential risks from important insect pests on plant production in Austria and related adaptation options") pest trends under crop land-use and climate scenarios by applying pest models are therefore investigated. Corresponding databases from monitoring programs for various insect pests of major crops are used for pest model development and testing for Austrian case study regions. To estimate the range of potential pest risks in the various Austrian crop growth regions in the future (2021-2050; 2071-2100), an ensemble of downscaled Austrian climate scenarios (ÖKS15) of two emission scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, is used. Using validated pest algorithms on a site-specific and grid-based application reveals variable-sized shifts in pest phenology, depending on the climate region and the specified future time periods.
First results for the American grapevine leafhopper (Scaphoideus titanus), European grapevine/berry moths (Lobesia botrana and Eupoecilia ambiguella), and plum moth (Grapholita funebrana) indicate a significant response to climate change toward earlier first occurrence dates of relevant development stages, which partially coincides with shifted growing areas of the host plants. While hardly any changes are likely in the near future (2021-2050) compared to current conditions, a significantly earlier occurrence of the pests can be expected at the end of the century, which varies regionally and depending on the projection. On average, for example, European grapevine moths can be expected to appear around 4 days earlier (RCP 4.5) / 7 days earlier (RCP 8.5) than today.
The findings of the project should help practitioners and policymakers to develop future strategies for optimised cultivation and pest control options.
1ACRP-13th Call Project RIMPEST (KR20AC0K17957) ("The effect of changing climate on potential risks from important insect pests on plant production in Austria and related adaptation options"). https://www.klimafonds.gv.at/report/acrp-13th-call-2020/; https://rimpest.boku.ac.at
How to cite: Thaler, S., Kolkmann, K., Blümel, S., and Eitzinger, J.: Use of climate change scenarios for pest algorithms in Austria, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-302, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-302, 2024.
