Impact of climate change on wind resource along the French coastline

Climate change will have clear impacts on wind resource that are highly dependent on regions and on greenhouse gases emission scenario. These changes will significantly affect the development and utilization of regional wind energy given the massive integration of wind power in the electrical system. In this context, we aim to assess the impact of climate change on wind resource along the French coastline in order to provide stakeholders in the offshore wind sector with appropriate indicators and trends to assess the expected evolution for the next few decades and to quantify associated uncertainties. First, we investigate several sets of wind-speed data from in-situ measurements (LIDAR and coastal meteorological stations) at the local scale on the different coastline regions of mainland France: English Channel, Bay of Biscay, and Mediterranean Sea. Then comparisons between measurements and numerical reanalyzes (ERA-5, COSMO-REA6, CERRA) are carried out for inter-annual variability, seasonal cycle, diurnal cycle and distribution of wind at different levels. The wind speed from CMIP6 Climate models is also evaluated for the historical period in comparison to reanalyzes and measurements to select the best performing models. Climate change effects on wind speed are then assessed on particular sites of interest on the different coastline regions of mainland France based on bias-corrected climate projections. The possible drivers and tendencies are identified. In addition, events of low wind speed, under cut-in velocity of offshore wind turbines, and high wind speed, above the cut-off velocity are studied to best determine future changes in electrical production.