EMS Annual Meeting Abstracts
Vol. 21, EMS2024-48, 2024, updated on 05 Jul 2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-48
EMS Annual Meeting 2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Assessment of wildfire risk due to climate change in the vicinity of the Švihov and Vír water reservoirs in the Czech republic

Lucie Kudláčková1,2, Markéta Poděbradská1,2, Emil Cienciala1,3, Radka Mašková3, Jana Beranová3, Jan Novotný1, Miroslav Pikl1, Monika Bláhová1,2, Pavel Zahradníček1, Petr Štěpánek1, Zdeněk Žalud1,2, and Miroslav Trnka1,2
Lucie Kudláčková et al.
  • 1Global Change Research Institute CAS, Department of climate change impacts on agroecosystems, (kudlackova.l@czechglobe.cz)
  • 2Mendel University in Brno
  • 3IFER – Institute of Forest Ecosystem Research, Ltd.

The research focuses on evaluating of changes in fire risk in the vicinity of reservoirs Švihov and Vír in the Czech Republic in the context of rapidly advancing climate change and recent bark beetle calamities. The global interest in fire risk research and management emphasizes its significance in various ecosystems and sensitive locations. Studied areas are suitable for evaluation of potential fire occurrences around the dams, which have far-reaching consequences besides overall ecosystem degradation, pollution, and drinking water shortage, as both reservoirs supply drinking water to 2 million inhabitants, including the capital city.

The methodology for predicting fire risk is based on the analysis of historical and current data, modeling, and simulation of fire behavior using modern technologies. Data evaluation identifies changes in vegetation characteristics and fire behavior due to climate change. Fire behavior simulation is currently the most effective scientific research approach for assessing the impact of fire weather on the landscape. The main tool for its identification is the widely used American program FlamMap, which takes into account topography, fuel types, wind speed, and fuel moisture.

Climate change alters the composition of forests and agroecosystems, resulting in an increased fire risk in many cases. Higher temperatures and lower humidity increase vegetation flammability, while forest disturbances (such as drought, pests) bring dry fuel and reduce tree resistance to fire. The aim of this study is to assess the change in fire risk due to climate change and bark beetle calamity, which affected the areas of interest in the years 2018–2022. The application of the FlamMap program will provide characteristics of fire behavior and also predict fire risk in the future. This analysis will contribute to the design of prevention strategies and fire protection in water management protected areas, among other things.

How to cite: Kudláčková, L., Poděbradská, M., Cienciala, E., Mašková, R., Beranová, J., Novotný, J., Pikl, M., Bláhová, M., Zahradníček, P., Štěpánek, P., Žalud, Z., and Trnka, M.: Assessment of wildfire risk due to climate change in the vicinity of the Švihov and Vír water reservoirs in the Czech republic, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-48, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-48, 2024.