Effects of climate change on wild pollinators: the case of butterflies in Central Italy

 

 

Among wild pollinators, diurnal butterflies are important in natural ecosystems and contribute significantly to agricultural productivity. Worryingly, a growing body of literature suggests that climate change (CC) may result in the extinction and decline of many butterfly species¹. Understanding which species and areas are most vulnerable to CC is essential for planning conservation and mitigation efforts. The project LIFE project BEEadapt aims to improve pollinator climate resilience in four areas in Central Italy, including protected areas, natural and agro-ecosystems.

The LIFE BEEadapt project focuses on four study areas: the Pontine plain (PP) (Latium), the Roma Natura protected areas (RMPA) (Latium), lowland/hilly areas, the Torricchio Natural Reserve (TNR) (Marche) and the Appennino Tosco-Emiliano National Park (ATENP) with buffer zone (Emilia Romagna), two mountainous areas.

After a preliminary climatological study of the studied areas, authors developed species distribution models (SDMs) using biomod2 R package², the algorithm Maxent, and two CC scenarios by 2050: sustainable (SSP1-2.6) and fossil-fueled development (SSP5-8.5), to assess the potential impacts of CC on 114 butterflies. Species data was obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (https://www.gbif.org/) and bioclimatic data from Worldclim (https://www.worldclim.org/) at a resolution of 1 km². Model performance was assessed using the ROC, and Boyce Index.

Results show first that CC signals are evident in the studied areas. Furthermore, they show that butterflies have a consistent vulnerability pattern at both the species and multispecies level. In the study areas, CC appears to favor lowland and generalist species, which increase their climatic suitability under both scenarios, particularly in mountains. Mountain and specialist species are expected to have reduced climatic suitability, especially under the SSP5-8.5.

Findings are comparable with recent studies on the effects of CC on pollinators, which revealed similar sensitivity patterns based on species ecology, and provide new insights into species potential local responses to CC, allowing to set conservation priorities and direct LIFE BEEadapt mitigation actions. Conservation measures such as habitat restoration and connectivity enhancement will be critical to the long-term survival of these butterfly populations.