The compound effect of acute respiratory infections and temperatures on mortality in the Czech Republic, 1982–2019

Numerous studies have thoroughly documented the contribution of non-optimal temperatures and acute respiratory infections (ARIs) to increased mortality. However, there is still a gap in understanding how these factors interact together to affect human mortality during the cold season, and how this impacts population susceptibility to heat waves in the summer.

In this study we conduct an analysis over a period spanning 38 years (1982–2019), utilizing: a) daily all-cause mortality counts across the Czech Republic, b) daily proxies of acute respiratory infections (ARIs) incidence, interpolated from weekly healthcare surveillance data, and distinguished regarding three dominant influenza viruses (A/H3N2, A/H1N1, and B), and c) a suite of weather variables, sourced from E-OBS gridded data, including daily mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures, daily precipitation, daily mean sea level pressure, daily mean wind speed, daily mean relative humidity, and radiation level.

To investigate the complex associations between mortality rates, ARI incidence, and weather variability, we employ a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) with multiple cross-bases. This approach facilitates the adjustment for confounding meteorological variables and provides a better understanding of their impact as fluctuating confounders. From these refined models, we derived the fraction of mortality attributable to ARIs and low temperatures, offering a quantification of their impact on excess mortality in the cold season. Additionally, we analyse changes in seasonal patterns of mortality according to the meteorological and epidemiological characteristics and assess temporal associations between air temperature and mortality in summer considering factors like intensity of ARI outbreaks and the mean winter temperature in the previous cold season. Our results contribute to better understanding of the links between temperature variability, respiratory infection dynamics and the seasonal variations in mortality.