Assessing climate change risks and exploring feasible adaptation measures for the tourism sector in Slovenian Istria

Climate change poses a threat to the tourism industry, potentially shifting travel patterns and destination preferences. The aim of the research was to assess the risks in Slovenian Istria, propose appropriate measures and discuss their feasibility in stakeholders’ workshops. The analysis of past climate data from the archive of Slovenian Environment Agency showed that since 1950, the number of hot days (with maximal daily temperature above 30°C) has increased by about 4.5 days per decade, and tropical nights (with minimum daily temperature above 20°C) by 2–5 days per decade. Precipitation patterns are changing. Climate projections show the trend is expected to continue with an increase in hot days by an average of 10 (RCP4.5) to 19 (RCP8.5) in the first period (2011–2040), and 19 (RCP4.5) to even 30 (RCP8.5) in the second period (2041–2070). Tropical nights are also projected to become more common. Climate index for beach tourism (CIT:3S) shows an increase in ideal days during summer months since 1971–2000. While the overall share of ideal and marginal days for beach tourism is projected to further increase from May to September across all scenarios, the number of ideal days in July and August is expected to decline, particularly under RCP8.5 by the end of the century. The season is likely to extend primarily into September. An index for urban tourism suitability (HCI) shows over ¾ of days from May to September are ideal, with a slight decrease in July recently. The percentage of ideal days is rising significantly in March, April, and October. All scenarios predict a year-round extension of the season.

Global warming threatens to make Slovenian Istria a less comfortable destination, especially during peak season. More frequent and severe heat waves and floods threaten tourist infrastructure and safety. Frequent droughts could exacerbate water shortages, impacting both residents and tourists. Despite the challenges, there are also potential opportunities for extending the tourist season into spring and autumn. Slovenian Istria can adapt with investments in water-saving measures, building seawalls, and thermal insulation of the buildings. Promoting Istria as a year-round destination with events and activities in spring and autumn can reduce reliance on summer tourism. Additionally, implementing early warning systems, providing natural and artificial shade, drinking fountains, staff training on self-protective measures, and adaptations like scheduling activities outside peak heat hours can ensure tourists' safety and comfort.

By implementing an appropriate adaptation strategy, the region can remain a competitive tourist destination. However, financial and logistical limitations may exist. We will also present the results of workshops where tourism stakeholders in four tourist destinations discussed the feasibility of adaptation measures.