Warming Climate effect on favorable environments for tropical cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic basin

Recently, changes in the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones related to Warming Climate have been observed, although uncertainties persist regarding this matter. Tropical cyclones, which are among the most dangerous weather phenomena, can arise from different conditions. However, those affecting Western Europe predominantly originate from a tropical transition and occur during the Autumn season. Consequently, this study aims to examine differences in the climatology of the variables related to tropical cyclogenesis during different periods from 1980 to 2100 in the North Atlantic basin under the influence of Warming Climate. The periods considered are: historical (1981 - 2010), near future (2021 – 2050) and far future (2071 – 2100), since periods with a statistically significant length, which represent the historical climate and two future climates spaced in time are needed. For this purpose, the SSP5-8.5 scenario from the EC-Earth3 climate model is used.

The results indicate significant rises in Sea Surface Temperature, Total Column Water and Geopotential Height at 300 hPa, alongside significant anomalies in the tropospheric Averaged Potential Vorticity, especially for the last part of the XX1 century. These changes lead to a percentile Vertical Wind Shear and air column stability reduction in almost the whole domain for the last part of the current century. Overall, these outcomes suggest an increased susceptibility to tropical cyclones formation in the North Atlantic basin due to Warming Climate, raising concerns about the potential for significant material damage and loss of human life caused by these systems. This study is a first approximation on how these high-impact severe weather events can evolve in the future, allowing for a better understanding of how tropical cyclogenesis could change with global warming.