Surface energy budget changes in Europe under the intermediate greenhouse gas emissions

Earth’s surface radiation and heat balance (or simply called as surface energy budget) is one of the key factors affecting the climate on the local scale. The size, magnitude and temporal variability of its individual components have a direct impact on the surface temperature and hence also 2-meter air temperature. In addition, the surface energy budget is closely related to evapotranspiration and the ratio between both turbulent heat fluxes (latent and sensible heat flux) may help to identify drought conditions. The aim of this work is to analyze the spatial and temporal changes of individual components of the surface energy budget in Europe from 1950 till 2100 using the large ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate models (GCMs). The ensemble consists of 17 GCMs in nominal horizontal resolution of 50 or 100 km. For validation purposes in the period 1950–2014 GCMs are compared to the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis. The climate change signal in 21^st century (2015 and onwards) is investigated under the intermediate greenhouse gases emissions of SSP2-4.5 scenario with a special emphasis on the summer half of the year (April – September) that roughly corresponds to the growing season in Europe. Projected changes of the surface energy budget are put into context of the expected changes of 2 m air temperature and precipitation. There is an increase in global irradiance in Europe that leads to higher net radiation and stronger role of sensible heat flux in the second half of growing season indicating a higher risk of soil drought.