Worldwide Historical Shifts and Projections with CIMP6 Experiments for Köppen-Geiger Climate Classifications in Wine Regions

A useful resource for understanding and describing worldwide climatic patterns is the Köppen-Geiger (KG) climate classification system. The classification of climates suited for viticulture has been crucial to the wine sector, given the importance of climate in cultivating grapes for wine production. Wine production has come to be associated with Mediterranean climates due to the combination of the KG climate classification system and the geographic location of Europe's old-world wine areas. These climate types can also be found in the fynbos of South Africa, the Mallee of southern Australia, the matorral of Chile and Argentina, the chaparral and coastal valleys of western North America, and in the Mediterranean basin of Europe. But today, wine is produced in many different sorts of climates. Overall, a region's climate has a significant impact on wine production since it decides whether particular grape types can be grown there, greatly influencing the type of wine that can be produced and affecting the wine's quality.

This study examines the KG classification system's application to the most recent CMIP6 experiments. Using an ensemble of 14 global climate models and the WorldClim dataset, a baseline for the historical period 1970–2000 was established. Climate variability in winemaking regions is assessed using future estimates from 2041 to 2060, based on several scenarios of human radiative forcing (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The findings represent the most thorough record of past climate classifications for most wine regions globally, as well as prospective future changes to these categories.

Globally, temperate and arid zones (climate types C and B, respectively) are expected to undergo a substantial transition from a warm summer temperature to a hot summer climate. High temperatures can have a major impact on the grape development process. They may cause early ripening, alter the aromatic components in the grape berry, and perhaps change the acidity balance. Wine producers must modify their vineyard management practices in response to climate shifts and employ appropriate countermeasures to mitigate the negative effects of abiotic pressures on grape quality and vineyard health. These adaptation tactics could involve relocating to other microclimatic zones, adopting irrigation techniques, modifying canopy and soil management, or utilizing different variety-clone-rootstock combinations. Wine producers need to consider regional climate change projections to ensure the long-term sustainability of the environment and the socioeconomic landscape. This will help them make more informed decisions about vineyard management practices, and ultimately strengthen the wine industry's resilience and adaptability to the ongoing effects of climate change.

Acknowledgments: Research funded by National Funds by FCT under the project UIDB/04033/2020 and LA/P/0126/2020. Vine & Wine Portugal – Driving Sustainable Growth Through Smart Innovation, PRR e pelos Fundos Europeus Next Generation EU, no âmbito das Agendas Mobilizadoras para a Reindustrialização, Projeto n.º C644866286-011.