Climate Change and Aviation: The Increasing Impact of Heatwaves on European Airports

The aviation sector is experiencing the impacts of climate change on both in-flight and ground operations. One meaningful example is that of heatwaves, as temperature extremes reduce aircraft lift and takeoff performance, requiring lighter loads—including fewer passengers and less cargo— and increasing noise pollution due to shallower climb angles. Heatwaves also deteriorate runway asphalt and compromise comfort inside airport terminals.
In this work, we analyze the occurrence of summer heatwaves at 30 European airports by comparing historical data from 1985-2014 with projections for 2035-2065, using data from 10 CMIP6 models across three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP370, SSP585). We apply a dedicated bias correction and downscaling technique to model data to improve spatial resolution and address systematic distributional biases. Heatwaves are identified and measured using a Standardized Heatwave Indicator (SHI), enabling the assessment of any trends in the frequency, length, and intensity of this phenomenon at each airport.
Our findings reveal a significant increase in the frequency, duration, and intensity of summer heatwaves across all the airports considered for the period 2035-2065 compared to historical data. Heatwaves are anticipated to become an annual phenomenon, with Southern European airports expected to face the most severe conditions. These airports could in fact experience an average of up to four heatwaves each summer, lasting up to 14 days and reaching intensities exceeding the 99.97th percentile of historical events.
This work underscores the urgent need to identify and implement heatwave-aware adaptation measures and operational improvements in aviation, enhancing the climate resilience of this sector to ensure safety and efficiency in operations.