Evaluation of climate change impacts for tourism in Hungary based on tourism climate metrics

Weather and climate constitute vital resources exploited by the tourism sector. Climate influences the behaviour of tourists through their motivation to travel and destination selection. Climate change is a major challenge for tourism, significantly affecting tourism supply and demand. Thus, the recognition of the observed and expected future climate suitability for a given region or destination is of outstanding importance. In the research, I evaluate the impacts of climate change for the area of Hungary based on two tourism climate metrics: a modified form of the Tourism Climate Index (mTCI, Kovács et al. 2016) and the urban Holiday Climate Index (HCI:Urban, Scott et al. 2016). The observed tourism climate conditions are quantified for the period 1971–2000 using the grid point based observational database CarpatClim-HU at 10 km horizontal resolution. Future conditions are described for the periods 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 based on two regional climate models (ALADIN and REMO) driven by different global climate models. Two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are used to describe the future anthropogenic activity in the models. This multi-model and multi-scenario ensemble method allows taking into consideration the uncertainties in climate model predictions. The spatial distribution of indices are displayed on maps on a Hungarian district scale as well as on a monthly basis. In the present period, based on both indices, the shoulder months (April, May, September and October) are characterised with the most favourable conditions, while there is a slight deterioration in climate suitability in summer. According to future tendencies, both metrics indicate that less favourable conditions are expected in the summer months in large parts of the country. Certain scenarios also show a slight drop in May and September. However, most shoulder months (March, April, October and November) seem to bring more pleasant circumstances for tourism. The winter period is likely to be characterised with the same or slightly better conditions in the future. The results demonstrate that climate change will have an apparent impact on tourism in Hungary.

Project no. 142335 has been implemented with the support provided by the Ministry of Culture and Innovation of Hungary from the National Research, Development and Innovation Fund, financed under the PD_22 funding scheme.