OSA1.1 | Forecasting, nowcasting and warning systems
Forecasting, nowcasting and warning systems
Conveners: Bernhard Reichert, Timothy Hewson, Yong Wang

This session presents and explores the increasingly sophisticated systems developed to aid, and often automate, the forecasting and warning process, encompassing also downstream links to users that form part of the "warning value chain". The rapid proliferation of data available, including probabilistic and rapidly-updating NWP as well as a plethora of observations, combined with a growing appreciation of user needs and the importance of timely and relevant forecasts, has brought the development of these systems to the fore.
As a legacy of WMO's HIWeather programme, we also invite discussion of the interdisciplinary challenges, gaps, and opportunities in evaluating the warning value chain from observing, nowcasting and forecasting to warning and response. Understanding the true added value that each contribution brings to decision-making and community outcomes is critical.
Meanwhile, ongoing rapid developments in machine learning bring both opportunities and challenges for the warning process, and with the conference theme in mind contributions at this intersection point are also particularly welcome this year.

Topics may include:
• Nowcasting systems
• Links to severe weather and severe weather impacts
• Automated first guess warning systems
• Post-processing techniques
• Seamless deterministic and probabilistic forecast prediction
• Integrating systems and information within a forecast and warning value chain
• Use of machine learning and other advanced analytic techniques
• Can output of data-driven (AI) models contribute to warning systems?