08Operational earthquake forecasting/prediction: Advances in models, observations and verification
|Conveners: Angelo De Santis , Vladimir Kossobokov , Dimitar Ouzounov , Gerasimos Papadopoulos , Antonella Peresan , J.D. Zechar|
The observed seismic dynamics before and after many major earthquakes demonstrated common features of predictability and diverse behavior. Significant steps have been made towards assessing earthquake space-time correlations, clustering, and the emergence of seismicity patterns. The holistic approach of understanding earthquake occurrence as a complex phenomenon has shown the potential for reproducible and testable earthquake forecasting, based on robust information provided by seismicity. However, seismicity is only one manifestation of Earth’s complex dynamics in advance of catastrophic earthquakes. Besides identified patterns and probabilistic models of earthquake occurrence, many newly available data collected on a global scale provide new opportunities for systematic analysis and model testing. A variety of physical observables, ranging from ground-related deformation patterns (GPS, SAR, etc.) to pre-earthquake changes (including geochemical, electromagnetic, and thermodynamic processes), may be related to stress variations in the lithosphere prior to a large earthquake.
With this session, we intend to better understand the feasibility and practical relevance of earthquake forecast/prediction methods. The following theoretical and practical issues will be addressed:
• Systematic analysis and monitoring of earthquake precursors;
• Model validation and statistical assessment of the proposed physical-based precursors;
• Statistical methods and problems in earthquake forecast validation;
• Input data analysis and requirements for real-time model testing;
• Dissemination and use of earthquake forecasting information;
• Approaches for the evaluation of earthquake forecasting/prediction methods and case studies;
• Possible extension to seismic risk and loss forecasting.
Presentations addressing the issue of time-dependent seismic hazard assessment, based on the space-time characterization of impending earthquakes, are also welcomed. We emphasize that we are interested in probabilistic and deterministic approaches to these problems.