Oral program 08

08

Operational earthquake forecasting/prediction: Advances in models, observations and verification
Conveners: Angelo De Santis , Vladimir Kossobokov , Dimitar Ouzounov , Gerasimos Papadopoulos , Antonella Peresan , J.D. Zechar 
Session details
Oral program
 / Mon, 05 Sep, 11:30–17:30  / Room Oceania AB
 / Tue, 06 Sep, 11:30–13:00  / Room Oceania AB
Poster program
 / Attendance Mon, 05 Sep, 10:30–11:30  / Poster area
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Monday, 05 Sep 2016
Room Oceania AB
Chairperson: A. Peresan, V. Kossobokov
Multidisciplinary approach to earthquake forecasting

11:30–11:45
ESC2016-205
Through 47 years of RST analysis of anomalous TIR sequences in relation with earthquakes occurred in different continents and in various geo-tectonic settings. (invited talk)
Valerio Tramutoli, Mariano Lisi, Carolina Filizzola, Nicola Genzano, Rossana Paciello, and Nicola Pergola
11:45–12:00
ESC2016-153
Variations in Gravitational Field, Tidal Force and Earthquakes (Sheki-Greater Caucasus, Azerbaijan)
Fakhraddin Kadirov, Luciano Telesca, Samir Mammadov, and Gulam Babayev
12:00–12:15
ESC2016-569
Lithosphere-Atmosphere Interface as a background for physical explanation of short-term precursors
Sergey Pulinets and Dimitar Ouzounov
12:15–12:30
ESC2016-401
An interdisciplinary approach of utilizing pre-earthquake signals for short-term prediction studies
Dimitar Ouzounov, Sergey Pulinets, Katsumi Hattori, Tiger Liu, and Menas Kafatos
12:30–12:45
ESC2016-495
SAFE Project: An improved integrated system of earthquake physics study from ground and satellite observations
Angelo De Santis, Giorgiana De Franceschi, Rita Di Giovambattista, Loredana Perrone, Lucilla Alfonsi, Gianfranco Cianchini, F. Javier Pavón-Carrasco, Claudio Cesaroni, Luca Spogli, Alessandro Piscini, Dedalo Marchetti, Anna De Santis, Giulia D'Angelo, Elvira Musicò, Andrea Malagnini, Leonardo Amoruso, Marianna Carbone, and Cristoforo Abbattista
12:45–13:00
ESC2016-540
Uranium Groundwater Anomalies and Active Normal Faulting (invited talk)
Wolfango Plastino
Lunch break
Chairperson: A. De Santis, G. Papadopoulos
Spatio-temporal properties of earthquake occurrence

14:30–14:45
ESC2016-512
Temporal and energy parameters of aftershock process of the earthquakes of the Caucus and adjacent territories
Svetlana Rodina, Alexandr Lutikov, and Galina Doncova
14:45–15:00
ESC2016-143
On temporary clustering of aftershocks and its dependence on the magnitude of main shock
Alexey Zavyalov, Anatoly Guglielmi, Oleg Zotov, and Ivan Lavrov
15:00–15:15
ESC2016-101
The static behaviour of tectonic aftershocks: From geometric to subdiffusion analysis
Arnaud Mignan
15:15–15:30
ESC2016-452
Relative frequencies of seismic main shocks after strong shocks in Italy
Paolo Gasperini, Barbara Lolli, and Gianfranco Vannucci
15:30–15:45
ESC2016-145
Estimation of the frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter b-value without level of completeness
Andrzej Kijko and Ansie Smit
15:45–16:00
ESC2016-536
Operative Forecasting of the hazard from aftershocks of Large Earthquakes
Shebalin Peter and Baranov Sergey
Operational earthquake forecasting

16:00–16:15
ESC2016-483
A composite model of expected earthquake rates in California based on intermediate-term precursory patterns (invited talk)
Peter Shebalin
16:15–16:30
ESC2016-80
Forecasting model for Mw ≥ 5.0 earthquakes in the Algeria-Morocco region
Hamdache mohamed, Pelaez Jose, and Yelles Chaouche Abdel krim
16:30–16:45
ESC2016-576
Short-term operational earthquake forecasts based on epidemic clustering models
Rodolfo Console, Maura Murru, Giuseppe Falcone, and Warmer Marzocchi
16:45–17:00
ESC2016-288
Operational earthquake forecast: about two decades of CN and M8S algorithms practice in Italy
Antonella Peresan, Leontina Romashkova, Vladimir Kossobokov, and Giuliano F. Panza
17:00–17:15
ESC2016-529
Global testing of earthquake prediction algorithms
Vladimir Kossobokov
17:15–17:30
ESC2016-382
probability does not exist: some considerations on seismic risk mitigation
elisa guagenti and vincenzo petrini

Tuesday, 06 Sep 2016
Room Oceania AB
Chairperson: D. Ouzunov, S. Pulinets
Systematic analysis of pre-earthquake processes

11:30–11:45
ESC2016-579
Foreshocks as a powerful earthquake precursor
Gerassimos Papadopoulos, George Minadakis, and Boris Di Fiore
11:45–12:00
ESC2016-86
An approach to automatic prediction of earthquakes: techniques, tools, and case studies
Valeri Gitis and Alexander Derendyaev
12:00–12:15
ESC2016-87
Online monitoring and analyses of seismic activity
Alexander Derendyaev and Valeri Gitis
12:15–12:30
ESC2016-72
Long-range coherence of seismic noise properties before strong earthquakes
Alexey Lyubushin
12:30–12:45
ESC2016-58
Ten years of electromagnetic recordings by the Central Italy Electromagnetic Network (CIEN)
Cristiano Fidani
12:45–13:00
ESC2016-246
The role of deep degassing in the problem of earthquake prediction and mininig accidents with gas explosions
Vladimir Natyaganov, Ivan Stepanov, Vladimir Syvorotkin, and Sergey Shopin