Oral program 08
08 Operational earthquake forecasting/prediction: Advances in models, observations and verification |
Conveners: Angelo De Santis , Vladimir Kossobokov , Dimitar Ouzounov , Gerasimos Papadopoulos , Antonella Peresan , J.D. Zechar |
Oral program
/ Mon, 05 Sep, 11:30–17:30
/ Room Oceania AB
/ Tue, 06 Sep, 11:30–13:00 / Room Oceania AB
Poster program
/ Attendance Mon, 05 Sep, 10:30–11:30
/ Poster area
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Monday, 5 September 2016 Room Oceania AB Chairperson: A. Peresan, V. Kossobokov |
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Multidisciplinary approach to earthquake forecasting
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11:30–11:45 |
ESC2016-205
Through 47 years of RST analysis of anomalous TIR sequences in relation with earthquakes occurred in different continents and in various geo-tectonic settings. (invited talk) Valerio Tramutoli, Mariano Lisi, Carolina Filizzola, Nicola Genzano, Rossana Paciello, and Nicola Pergola |
11:45–12:00 |
ESC2016-153
Variations in Gravitational Field, Tidal Force and Earthquakes (Sheki-Greater Caucasus, Azerbaijan) Fakhraddin Kadirov, Luciano Telesca, Samir Mammadov, and Gulam Babayev |
12:00–12:15 |
ESC2016-569
Lithosphere-Atmosphere Interface as a background for physical explanation of short-term precursors Sergey Pulinets and Dimitar Ouzounov |
12:15–12:30 |
ESC2016-401
An interdisciplinary approach of utilizing pre-earthquake signals for short-term prediction studies Dimitar Ouzounov, Sergey Pulinets, Katsumi Hattori, Tiger Liu, and Menas Kafatos |
12:30–12:45 |
ESC2016-495
SAFE Project: An improved integrated system of earthquake physics study from ground and satellite observations Angelo De Santis, Giorgiana De Franceschi, Rita Di Giovambattista, Loredana Perrone, Lucilla Alfonsi, Gianfranco Cianchini, F. Javier Pavón-Carrasco, Claudio Cesaroni, Luca Spogli, Alessandro Piscini, Dedalo Marchetti, Anna De Santis, Giulia D'Angelo, Elvira Musicò, Andrea Malagnini, Leonardo Amoruso, Marianna Carbone, and Cristoforo Abbattista |
12:45–13:00 |
ESC2016-540
Uranium Groundwater Anomalies and Active Normal Faulting (invited talk) Wolfango Plastino |
Lunch break
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Spatio-temporal properties of earthquake occurrence
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14:30–14:45 |
ESC2016-512
Temporal and energy parameters of aftershock process of the earthquakes of the Caucus and adjacent territories Svetlana Rodina, Alexandr Lutikov, and Galina Doncova |
14:45–15:00 |
ESC2016-143
On temporary clustering of aftershocks and its dependence on the magnitude of main shock Alexey Zavyalov, Anatoly Guglielmi, Oleg Zotov, and Ivan Lavrov |
15:00–15:15 |
ESC2016-101
The static behaviour of tectonic aftershocks: From geometric to subdiffusion analysis Arnaud Mignan |
15:15–15:30 |
ESC2016-452
Relative frequencies of seismic main shocks after strong shocks in Italy Paolo Gasperini, Barbara Lolli, and Gianfranco Vannucci |
15:30–15:45 |
ESC2016-145
Estimation of the frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter b-value without level of completeness Andrzej Kijko and Ansie Smit |
15:45–16:00 |
ESC2016-536
Operative Forecasting of the hazard from aftershocks of Large Earthquakes Shebalin Peter and Baranov Sergey |
Operational earthquake forecasting
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16:00–16:15 |
ESC2016-483
A composite model of expected earthquake rates in California based on intermediate-term precursory patterns (invited talk) Peter Shebalin |
16:15–16:30 |
ESC2016-80
Forecasting model for Mw ≥ 5.0 earthquakes in the Algeria-Morocco region Hamdache mohamed, Pelaez Jose, and Yelles Chaouche Abdel krim |
16:30–16:45 |
ESC2016-576
Short-term operational earthquake forecasts based on epidemic clustering models Rodolfo Console, Maura Murru, Giuseppe Falcone, and Warmer Marzocchi |
16:45–17:00 |
ESC2016-288
Operational earthquake forecast: about two decades of CN and M8S algorithms practice in Italy Antonella Peresan, Leontina Romashkova, Vladimir Kossobokov, and Giuliano F. Panza |
17:00–17:15 |
ESC2016-529
Global testing of earthquake prediction algorithms Vladimir Kossobokov |
17:15–17:30 |
ESC2016-382
probability does not exist: some considerations on seismic risk mitigation elisa guagenti and vincenzo petrini |
Tuesday, 6 September 2016 Room Oceania AB Chairperson: D. Ouzunov, S. Pulinets |
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Systematic analysis of pre-earthquake processes
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11:30–11:45 |
ESC2016-579
Foreshocks as a powerful earthquake precursor Gerassimos Papadopoulos, George Minadakis, and Boris Di Fiore |
11:45–12:00 |
ESC2016-86
An approach to automatic prediction of earthquakes: techniques, tools, and case studies Valeri Gitis and Alexander Derendyaev |
12:00–12:15 |
ESC2016-87
Online monitoring and analyses of seismic activity Alexander Derendyaev and Valeri Gitis |
12:15–12:30 |
ESC2016-72
Long-range coherence of seismic noise properties before strong earthquakes Alexey Lyubushin |
12:30–12:45 |
ESC2016-58
Ten years of electromagnetic recordings by the Central Italy Electromagnetic Network (CIEN) Cristiano Fidani |
12:45–13:00 |
ESC2016-246
The role of deep degassing in the problem of earthquake prediction and mininig accidents with gas explosions Vladimir Natyaganov, Ivan Stepanov, Vladimir Syvorotkin, and Sergey Shopin |