GC11-solidearth-33, updated on 16 Mar 2023
Galileo Conference: Solid Earth and Geohazards in the Exascale Era
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

A digital twin component for volcanic dispersal and fallout

Leonardo Mingari1, Arnau Folch1, Alejandra Guerrero1, Sara Barsotti2, Talfan Barnie2, Giovanni Macedonio3, and Antonio Costa4
Leonardo Mingari et al.
  • 1Geociencias Barcelona (GEO3BCN-CSIC), Barcelona, Spain , Spain
  • 2Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO), Iceland
  • 3Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Osservatorio Vesuviano, Naples, Italy
  • 4Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy

A Digital Twin Component (DTC) provides users with digital replicas of different components of the Earth system through unified frameworks integrating real-time observations and state-of-the-art numerical models. Scenarios of extreme events for natural hazards can be studied from the genesis to propagation and impacts using a single DTC or multiple coupled DTCs. The EU DT-GEO project (2022-2025) is implementing a prototype digital twin on geophysical extremes consisting of 12 interrelated Digital Twin Components, intended as self-contained and containerised software entities embedding numerical model codes, management of real-time data streams and data assimilation methodologies. DTCs can be deployed and executed in centralized High Performance Computing (HPC) and cloud computing Research Infrastructures (RIs). In particular, the DTC-V2 is implementing an ensemble-based automated operational system for deterministic and probabilistic forecast of long-range ash dispersal and local-scale tephra fallout. The system continuously screens different ground-based and satellite-based data sources and a workflow is automatically triggered by a volcanic eruption to stream and pre-process data, its ingestion into the FALL3D dispersal model, a centralized or distributed HPC model execution, and the post-processing step. The DTCs will provide capability for analyses, forecasts, uncertainty quantification, and "what if" scenarios for natural and anthropogenic hazards, with a long-term ambition towards the Destination Earth mission-like initiative. 

How to cite: Mingari, L., Folch, A., Guerrero, A., Barsotti, S., Barnie, T., Macedonio, G., and Costa, A.: A digital twin component for volcanic dispersal and fallout, Galileo Conference: Solid Earth and Geohazards in the Exascale Era, Barcelona, Spain, 23–26 May 2023, GC11-solidearth-33, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-gc11-solidearth-33, 2023.