Which land use scenario for the revitalization of surface runoff in the Senegal River watershed

In the Senegal River watershed, land use is undergoing significant dynamics due to intense human activities that place the ecosystem in a precarious balance. The objective of this study is to quantify the landscape dynamics and explore the possible futures of land use using remote sensing, GIS and spatio-temporal modeling tools while coupling with climate change indicators. Socio-economic data and Modis-Terra images (2007, 2014 and 2019) were used. A multi-date classification was used to quantify land use changes. The Land Change Modeler (LCM) model was used to simulate and project land use in the Senegal River watershed up to 2030. The results show that between 2007 and 2019, there will be a significant regression of natural vegetation formations (water bodies, forests and wooded savannahs) and an increase in anthropogenic formations (mosaics of crops and fallow land) for the same period. The three Business-As-Usual (BAU), Rapid Economic Growth (REC) and Coordinated Environmental Sustainability (CES) scenarios, extrapolating current trends, show that by 2030 (the SDG horizon) this landscape will be dominated by crop and fallow land mosaics (+50%). Woody resources occupy 26% of the area in the DEC scenario, 23% in the BAU scenario and 19% in the CER scenario. The DEC scenario gives hope that restoration and preservation of plant resources is still possible if decision makers are aware of it.