The impact of climate change on hydrology and glaciation of the Zeravshan, Vakhsh and Pyanj river basin

The results of observations of temperature changes in the Zeravshan River basin show that for the period 1940-2020, the temperature increase was 0.11 ^oC/10 yr and by 2050, the temperature increase is expected to be 3.1-3.4 ^oC. The amount of precipitation in the Zeravshan River basin by 2050 is increasing by an average of 21-24% compared to the period 1940-2020. There is an increase in the flow of the Zeravshan River by 2050. If the flow volume of the Zeravshan River in 1950 was 1.29 km3, then in 2020 and 2050 the flow volume increased to 2.05 km3 and 2.38 km3, respectively. According to forecast data, by 2050 to the reference period, the glaciation area is decreasing from 50% in the Zeravshan River basin to 62% in the Fondarya River basin. Based on the calculated forecasts, an increase in temperature in the upper reaches of the Vakhsh River by 2050 is expected to be 0.4 - 0.7 oC compared to the period 1950-2020 and by 2050 the reduction in the flow of the Vakhsh River will be 7% relative to the period 1960-1990. By 2050, the temperature in the Panj River basin is expected to increase by 0.31-0.54 °C compared to the period 1950-2020. On average, by 2050, an increase in atmospheric precipitation by 0.9% is predicted in the Pyanj River basin compared to the period 1950-2020. By 2050, the volume of glaciers in the basins of the Vakhsh and Pyanj Rivers will decrease by 55-56% and 79-80%, respectively, in relation to 1950. At the same time, the glaciation areas in the basins of the Vakhsh and Pyanj rivers, respectively, will be reduced by 48% and 73%.