Water availability and expansion of agricultural activity in southwestern Tocantins - Brazil: identification of scenarios and weaknesses

The environmental problems in the Middle Araguaia region, southwest of Tocantins, are resulted of an occupation pattern  oriented by the economic development established in the 1960s, and that persists to current days. This research analyzed the evolution of land use and occupation over 34 years (from 1985 to 2019). It was determined the transformation rates occurred and the environmental fragility, as well as thesuitable lands for agricultural production. It was evaluated the physical and environmental aspects associated with the land use dynamics, which aided in the modeling future scenarios of occupation scenarios environmental fragility and hydrological and climatic suitability for agricultural production. Considering the maintained of the current occupation patterns guided by the expansion of the crop to pasture areas, deforestation and the increase of irrigated areas, the region will lose its environmental support capacity and will reach a situation of extreme water deficit, causing negative impacts in the agricultural productivity. In view of this scenario, the methodology used in this study is quite adequate to support public policies and actions of planning and monitoring, which are essential to that help in the process of regional development in the region.