Low flow characterization and forecasting in a non-stationary context

The aim of this communication is to present the state-of-the-art on low flows trends and modelling in the French part of the Mosel basin (~10800 km²) over the last decades. The state-of-the art is feed by the two following complementary projects that focus on (i) characterization and (ii) forecasting of low flows:

• MAJORE is a project supported by the Rhine-Meuse Water Agency which studies low flow characteristics in a context of non-stationary flows. The issue focuses on the detection of the reference period for calculating low flow characteristics as well as to understand and explain why some basins are more affected by droughts than others over the two last decades.
• The CIPRHES[1] project is a French national research project which aims to provide solutions to water resources managers by proposing low flow forecasts. For that purpose we developed a new semi-distributed version of our hydrological model that integrate the main anthropic influences in the basin (drinking water supply, dams, canals ...). Results obtained on the Meurthe basin which benefits from a low water support through the Vieux Pré dam are compared to those obtained from the upstream Mosel basin which is not influenced by a regulating reservoir.

[1] https://www6.inrae.fr/ciprhes/Le-projet/Defis-cles