The impact of adaptation and mitigation strategies on heat-related mortality in Nicosia, Cyprus: A modeling approach using WRF simulations and statistical models.

The association between elevated temperatures and increased mortality and morbidity risk is well-documented. This represents a significant public health concern, particularly in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) region, which has been identified as a climate change hotspot exhibiting substantial warming, drying, and more frequent heat waves. Mitigation and adaptation strategies can reduce temperatures and enhance thermal comfort in urban areas, thereby alleviating the heat-induced health burden. Building upon prior research, this study aims to quantify the potential impact of Nicosia's most effective heat mitigation scenarios on heat-related risk over a six-month period, spanning from April 15^th to October 15^th, 2020.

To accomplish this, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is coupled with the Multilayer BEP/BEM scheme to simulate the effects of heat mitigation strategies on temperatures, outdoor thermal comfort as measured by the Universal Thermal Comfort Index (UTCI), and energy-use for space heating and cooling. Then, statistical and machine learning methods, such as the well-established Distributed Lag Non-Linear Models (DLNMs) and Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) trained on historical data, are used to estimate the relative risks and attributable fractions of mortality associated with temperature fluctuations for each scenario throughout the study period. The considered strategies include (i) adopting cool roofs to minimize heat absorption, (ii) planting trees and expanding green areas within the city, (iii) combining cool roofs and urban trees, and (iv) combining urban trees with total roof coverage by photovoltaic panels to increase renewable energy generation.

This research can provide valuable insights to policymakers and urban planners on addressing climate change impacts in city regeneration projects by quantifying and comparing the benefits of these scenarios in terms of mortality alleviation.