Shifting climate sensitivity and differential exposure to heat in NYC 1990 - 2020

Long term adaptation plans to climate change are affected by uncertainties over where climate hazards, including heat waves, cloudbursts, hurricanes and other storms, might occur and the shifting location of vulnerable populations to these events.   To address this dilemma, this research examines whether changes occurring in urban neighborhoods are affecting an important component of vulnerability, climate sensitivity and how these changes affect exposure to heat.  We analyze the shifts in climate sensitive of communities and associate these changes with neighborhood change and land surface temperature using New York City as a case study.  With Census tract as the neighborhood unit, we deploy Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) to identify the shifts in community climate sensitive and the changes in neighborhood type from 1990 to 2020.  Our results suggest that the number of communities defined as climate-sensitive increased from 1,113 to 1,179 (approximately 6% increase) during the study period.  Logistic regression of nominal change in climate sensitivity suggests differences in the probabilities of change by neighborhood type and intensity of change.  We also find that shifting climate sensitivity and neighborhood types are associated with land surface temperature changes.  For example, neighborhoods that shift from non-sensitive to sensitive populations are associated with higher rates of increase in land surface temperature than areas that shift from sensitive to non-sensitive communities.  These findings suggest changes in climate sensitivity are associated with types of neighborhoods and increases in land surface temperature, highlighting issues of climate justice for marginalized communities.