Determinants of heat-related vulnerability at the district level in Prague

The increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves due to climate change cause a significant challenge to global public health. These extreme heat events are linked to increased morbidity and mortality risks, particularly when ambient temperatures surpass local acclimatization thresholds. Furthermore, the adverse impacts of heatwaves are not evenly distributed; vulnerable subpopulations, including older adults and children, exhibit heightened susceptibility due to inherent physiological limitations. Additionally, research indicates that environmental and socioeconomic factors, such as access to green spaces and income levels, play a critical role in shaping heat vulnerability. These factors influence thermal comfort and affect an individual’s ability to cope with extreme heat. Therefore, to mitigate heat-related health risks, it is essential to assess district-level heat vulnerability in Prague and identify areas where interventions are most urgently needed.

This study employs geographically weighted principal components analysis (GWPCA) to investigate the influence of meteorological variables (mean summer air temperature and the mean number of heatwave days), environmental attributes (the proportion and type of greenery, as well as the urban coverage ratio), and socioeconomic conditions (population demographics, unemployment rate, and average income) on heat vulnerability. Vulnerability is quantified using daily heat-related mortality and ambulance call-out data collected from 2014 to 2020 across Prague’s districts. High-resolution UrbClim model data are utilized to characterize the spatial variability of air temperature. Moreover, a multivariate meta-regression model is applied to quantify the associations between increased temperatures and the risk of mortality and emergency responses, while controlling for district-level characteristics. By identifying the principal determinants of heat vulnerability, this study delineates the areas at greatest risk and supports the development of targeted interventions to mitigate the adverse effects of extreme heat on susceptible populations.