Disentangling Warming of Cities: Urbanization or Climate Change

Cities are increasingly seen as growth centers driving socio-economic development. However, the changed urban landscape from a natural one impacts the local climate. In the backdrop of climate change, the challenges confronted by cities are exacerbated by the combined effects of both urbanization and climate change. One such major challenge is urban warming. While numerous studies have examined the urban heat island effect—a well-known phenomena leading to elevated temperature over the cities than the surrounding region—limited attention has been paid to disentangling the contributions of urbanization and climate change to the observed warming over cities. Here, we have explored the warming over 141 cities across India and have segregated the role of urbanization and regional climate change from the observed warming using MODIS surface temperature data during 2003-2020. Our findings reveal that urbanization accounts for approximately 60% of the observed warming in these cities, with developing cities in the eastern part of India experiencing the highest urban-induced warming. This spatial variability highlights the need for region-specific strategies to mitigate warming. Our study underscores the importance of targeted urban planning and climate adaptation policies to address the compounded impacts of urbanization and climate change on cities, promoting sustainable and resilient urban development.