Toward heat-resilient cities: Identifying global urban heat futures shaped by characteristics of extreme heat and urban form

Today’s cities are increasingly faced with extreme heat events, which have serious consequences for human health, livelihoods, and overall livability. In this context, it is crucial for cities to have access to actionable climate information to support climate-conscious urban planning. However, it can be challenging for cities to identify relevant peers and heat mitigation strategies for comparison due to the complex and localized nature of urban heat risk. Here, we develop a globally consistent framework to identify global urban heat futures, based on key variables of heat risk and urban form that are most relevant for urban climate action. To characterize typologies of urban heat risk, we leverage near-term urban climate projections from the Community Earth System Model to define heat futures based on the magnitude, duration, and frequency of extreme heat events. These simulations allow the categorization of cities into broad categories of heat risk. We further classify cities based on their physical attributes most relevant to urban heat stress and mitigation, covering characteristics such as general topography, urban morphology, and land cover. By characterizing cities’ heat futures through both extreme heat characteristics and urban form, we aim to help cities identify their peers with similar heat futures and urban forms. This research supports decision-making by providing near-term, actionable climate information tailored to urban contexts. The globally consistent methodology can facilitate meaningful comparisons across cities worldwide, thus guiding more effective knowledge sharing and tailored strategies to improve the livability of future cities.