Early Warning System for the Chicago Region and Developing Dynamic Vulnerability Metrics

Urban environments face growing challenges from hazardous weather events and deteriorating air quality conditions, including extreme heat waves, severe storms, and elevated levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5). These hazards pose serious risks to public health, infrastructure, and overall urban resilience. To address these challenges, we have developed a high-resolution early warning system tailored for the Chicago region, leveraging the fully coupled urbanized WRF-Chem (uWRF-Chem) model. This system provides 48-hour forecasts of key meteorological variables along with air pollutant concentrations, including PM and carbon monoxide (CO), at an unprecedented 100-meter resolution. Urban land-use representation is enhanced through a newly developed CGLC–MODIS–LCZ hybrid dataset, while the Building Effect Parameterization (BEP) scheme is employed to account for urban morphology and its impact on atmospheric processes. The system was operationally tested and evaluated from August 13 to September 13, 2024, successfully capturing a late-August heat wave, demonstrating its capability to predict extreme weather and air quality conditions in complex urban settings. These forecasts offer a valuable tool for public health advisories, emergency response, and urban planning. Additionally, we are developing dynamic vulnerability metrics to enhance early warnings, with initial results highlighting key exposure risk metrics. These metrics aim to provide a more comprehensive understanding of how different populations and urban systems are affected by extreme weather and air quality events.