Urban Climate and Dengue Fever: Assessing Aedes aegypti Infestation across Local Climate Zones (LCZs) in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)

In the first month of 2025, the city of Rio de Janeiro recorded 1,012 dengue fever cases, reaffirming the disease as one of the municipality's major public health challenges. Considering the close relationship between the disease vector and meteorological and climatic conditions, this study investigated the correlation between the climatic morphologies and the infestation by Aedes aegypti, the primary vector of the arbovirus. To achieve this, infestation indices were calculated, including the egg density index and the ovitrap positivity index, based on data collected from traps managed by the Municipal Health Department. Additionally, the Local Climate Zones (LCZs) were mapped in the study area, which were subsequently correlated with infestation data through multiple linear regression and Spearman tests. For a better understanding of the processes involved, the climatic characterization of the LCZs was conducted using meteorological data obtained from eight stations of the AlertaRio System: Vidigal, Irajá, Jardim Botânico, Barra/Rio Centro, Guaratiba, Santa Cruz, Alto da Boa Vista, and São Cristovão. Generalized Linear Models (GLM) were applied to correlate the incidence of reported dengue fever cases, infestation indices, and the LCZs. The results indicated high hatching rates of collected eggs, confirming the endemic nature of the disease. Statistical analysis revealed a positive and statistically significant association between the increase in infestation indices and temperatures, particularly minimum temperatures. It was also observed that the compact high-rise, mid-rise, and low-rise typologies showed greater susceptibility to mosquito presence. This result can likely be attributed to a combination of factors, such as reduced ventilation, greater heat retention, and increased availability of breeding sites in densely built urban spaces, favoring the development and proliferation of the vector. The findings reinforce the importance of climate-oriented urban planning in mitigating dengue transmission, providing insights for more effective vector control strategies.