Urban Climate Analysis with WRF-UCM and Approaches for Future Urban Climate Scenarios: A Focus on Seoul

The National Institute of Meteorological Sciences is conducting research on urban climate change and developing high-resolution, urban-scale climate change scenarios for metropolitan cities in the Republic of Korea (KR). Given the rapid urbanization and increasing climate risks in cities such as Seoul and Busan, understanding urban climate dynamics and projecting future climate scenarios is crucial for effective climate adaptation and sustainable urban planning.

To achieve this, we employ the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) coupled with the Urban Canopy Model (UCM) (WRF-UCM), which provides detailed urban climate simulations. Furthermore, we integrate the Local Climate Zone (LCZ) classification into WRF-UCM to better represent the heterogeneous characteristics of urban environments, thereby improving the accuracy of urban climate projections. Unlike traditional urban classifications, LCZ categorizes urban areas into 10 types based on physical structure, land cover, and land use characteristics. This refined classification allows for a more precise representation of urban morphology, enhancing the analysis of urban heat islands (UHI) and temperature simulations in complex urban landscapes. By incorporating LCZ into WRF-UCM, we aim to improve the model's ability to capture urban climate variations more accurately.

Developing high-resolution climate change scenarios at the urban scale poses significant computational challenges, as long-term simulations (over 20 years) with sub-kilometer resolutions require extensive computing resources. To address this issue, we are investigating an optimized methodology that integrates high-resolution future climate scenarios with WRF-UCM urban-scale simulations. This approach enhances computational efficiency while ensuring scientific accuracy, allowing for the generation of reliable future urban climate projections.

In this study, we present WRF-UCM simulation results for the Seoul metropolitan area and discuss a methodology for developing future urban climate scenarios. This research is expected to contribute to a better understanding of urban climate processes and provide a foundation for future urban climate adaptation strategies.