Disparities in the Impacts of Extreme Heat Events on Metro Ridership: Evidence from New York City

Record-breaking heatwaves in recent years have significantly altered travel demand, mode choice, and travel behavior, underscoring the need to integrate heat mitigation strategies into the promotion of active travel and public transit. While existing studies have examined passenger flow dynamics at subway stations during extreme heat events (EHEs), limited attention has been given to differences in travel purposes and the disproportionate effects on vulnerable groups.

This study investigates the dynamic changes in subway ridership during EHEs in New York City, home to one of the world’s largest and busiest transit systems. Specifically, we analyze variations in ridership based on trip purposes (utilitarian vs. recreational), temporal diurnal fluctuations, and the experiences of low-income groups, seniors and people with disabilities. By identifying stations with minimal ridership fluctuations during EHEs, we classify them as more resilient and explore how the built environment influences resilience to heat stress.

Our findings reveal that the negative impacts of EHEs are more pronounced on weekends than weekdays, with senior and disabled passengers experiencing the most significant declines, particularly during midday hours. While passengers using fair-fare plans are not significantly more affected overall, time-specific variations emerge. For general passengers, evening hours see the largest ridership declines, whereas fair-fare users exhibit minimal variation across the day. On weekdays, ridership decreases more at underground stations and those surrounded by higher densities, residential or industrial land, open spaces, and bicycle racks. On weekends, stations in areas with mixed land use experience greater ridership drops.

This study provides a station-level evaluation of ridership fluctuations during EHEs and highlights the potential of metro design to mitigate heat stress. The findings offer actionable insights for developing inclusive, heat-resilient transit systems and improving emergency planning to better support vulnerable populations.